Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Dallas
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No world cup this summer but today's news means were certainly going to have a Tory leadership battle to have fun with
expecting more than the usual number of twists and turns in the comes weeks

Market currently at £944k
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Euler
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BoJo nailed on I would think, especially if the Brexit party romp home as expected.
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Dallas
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I can help wonder if he's to marmite when it comes down to it, and someone more like Raab will have a larger appeal at the end.

Do think BoJO's price will fall from where its at though
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wearthefoxhat
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Bojo is probably looked upon as an ideal future "Leader of the Opposition" even if he becomes a temporary PM.

Ed Milliband was the ideal LOTOP fodder for Labour back in the day, before Corbs came along, and that was without ever experiencing PM.
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brimson25
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It depends if Johnson makes it through to the last 2. The ultimate selection lies with Tory members.

If so, he is value at almost any price.

But, he might not:

1. He has course and distance form. Last time, not that long along, he imploded almost at the starting gate.

2. People's liking for him diminishes with familiarity. If he can't get his colleagues on board, he can't milk his popularity with members.

3. I think Rory Stewart is value at 28s. First, he has more helpful attributes than others in the field: Eton, Oxford, "foreign office" (raises eyebrow). He looks a bit gimpy, even in this field, but if he can trade lower.

Further:

4. I think that May makes it harder for a female candidate to succeed her immediately.

5. Hunt is sullied by health, and is pretty dim, even comparatively.

The bet of the century would be Johnson vs Javid in the final two in an electorate of Tory party members!

Only one winner there, and it's not the man who apparently refers to himself as "The Saj"!

But as I say, I don't think Johnson will get there.
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LeTiss
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Theresa May's price for her departure date is interesting me - you can still get 9.60 for her leaving before the end of June

That might be worth a nibble!!

Her talks with Labour have broken down, the vultures are gathering within her own party, and if The Brexit Party hoover up huge numbers of Tory votes on May 23rd, the pressure on her to leave before June 30th will be overwhelming
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Dallas
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LeTiss wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:04 pm
Theresa May's price for her departure date is interesting me - you can still get 9.60 for her leaving before the end of June

That might be worth a nibble!!

Her talks with Labour have broken down, the vultures are gathering within her own party, and if The Brexit Party hoover up huge numbers of Tory votes on May 23rd, the pressure on her to leave before June 30th will be overwhelming
That does seem a high price
I'm assuming its there because even if outted by a big loss at the euros she would likely be a sitting PM for several more weeks

Might still be worth a stab though
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ShaunWhite
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LeTiss wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:04 pm
you can still get 9.60 for her leaving before the end of June
That 9.6 probably factors in a good deal of uncertainty over how quickly they can organise the replacement, they won't want to be leaderless.
Add to that the fact that in the tory party's current hierarchy, there's no actual position of deputy PM to act as a stand-in (and there hasn't been since Clegg), so she'll have to cling on as leader in name only, right up until the new PM's coronation. You're right though about her going asap but the paperwork is why Jul-Sep is the hot fav.
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LeTiss
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LeTiss wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:04 pm
Theresa May's price for her departure date is interesting me - you can still get 9.60 for her leaving before the end of June

That might be worth a nibble!!

Her talks with Labour have broken down, the vultures are gathering within her own party, and if The Brexit Party hoover up huge numbers of Tory votes on May 23rd, the pressure on her to leave before June 30th will be overwhelming
Looks like I hit the nail here.

Theresa May now trading at 2.8 to leave by the end of June - a terrible day tomorrow, and I can't see her remaining in office for 5 weeks
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LeTiss
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Now 2.38

Steaming
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Euler
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Good call, I don't think she has any friends anywhere at the moment.
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 3:53 pm
Good call, I don't think she has any friends anywhere at the moment.
Game over, I reckon Peter

Now 1.23
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Dallas
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 5:15 pm
Euler wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 3:53 pm
Good call, I don't think she has any friends anywhere at the moment.
Game over, I reckon Peter

Now 1.23
That was a great call Letiss

Image


I must confess I didn't get anything on it but well done on spotting it, I don't suppose you noticed the price either last night or this morning?
I heard on Politics Live this afternoon (recorded) how part of her front bench was missing at PMQ's to discuss how bad it was
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Archangel
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Euler wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 10:57 am
BoJo nailed on I would think, especially if the Brexit party romp home as expected.
Strong and stable!
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brimson25
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Great call!
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