General Election 2019 (UK)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Euler
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jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:45 pm
So to come to a conclusion, how did you all do at trading the election?
The volatility, given the lack of information on overall majority, was quite curious. So I was top and bottom slicing it to get a gross traded total on the market. The seat total on the spread betting markets was creeping up all night, so I lumped all the profit on a conservative majority. When the exit poll was announced, my work was done. So it would have been all or nothing for me. But it seemed fairly clear that, if you ignored the fuss on social media, a clear majority was going to happen.

Dutched the turnout market aiming for slightly higher turnout, so that wasn't a terrible idea. But turnout was lower by about 1%, so the importance of the election didn't seem to shift that as much as I thought.
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Euler
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greenmark wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:46 pm
Seems to me with Momentum as the party within a party, Labour are screwed.
Alan Johnson absolutely nailed it: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo
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Euler
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
I don't think he or anybody thought it was done, just a nice soundbite. In Politics it seems you can't have a detailed argument, you just need a strapline.
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
The UK is in a much better position to get a better trade deal now - surely that is a good thing
greenmark
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:30 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
The UK is in a much better position to get a better trade deal now - surely that is a good thing
You'd certainly hope so. Business people must have breathed a huge sigh of relief at the election result. Stabillity at least till end of June.
Beyond that it all depends on the attitude of the EU. Boris has ruled extending the transition beyond so Dec 2020. His majority means that is now cast in stone as the deadine for any of the agreements.
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superfrank
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In hindsight Laura Kuenssberg gave us the result the day before when she leaked the postal vote results on Politics Live.
“The postal votes have already arrived.

“The parties are not meant to look at it but they do get a hint and on both sides people are telling me that the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country.”
I was very tempted to lump on a Con majority at 1.6+ on the day but the thought of losing Brexit AND a load of cash would have been too much for me to bear!

I did ok in the same market after the exit poll, laying Labour for a good chunk then laying the dips on No Overall Majority - it would have been unprecedented for the exit poll to be wrong by anywhere close to what would have been required - that was (small) money for old rope as soon as a few real results had confirmed the poll. It was all over too quickly from a trading pov.
jamesg46
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Starting to kick myself for not putting any real effort in to it now. I noticed Dallas earlier on in the day (Election Day) posted he had a position around 1.3 in the majority market, along with some more a little further down the ladder, I remember it drifted to around 1.5 ish - I took nothing from that opportunity & there was no reason not to.
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Derek27
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I would probably have laid the majority on election night but was travelling with my laptop packed away. When I got to my destination I saw the exit polls before booting my computer. :)
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:55 pm
I would probably have laid the majority on election night but was travelling with my laptop packed away. When I got to my destination I saw the exit polls before booting my computer. :)
I dont know about you but I was hoping for a longer night with some drama. I think it was all over by mid evening which didnt make it very appealing, from the exit polls onwards I didnt bother to look at the markets... i think i remember someone commenting "early night"
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Derek27
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Yeah, that exit poll really killed the game. Wish I just switched off and traded Australia. It was quite depressing viewing if you voted Labour.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:13 pm
Yeah, that exit poll really killed the game. Wish I just switched off and traded Australia. It was quite depressing viewing if you voted Labour.
I gathered you did... so I had to stop myself with a sarcastic reply to "before booting the laptop" I dont want to get into debating "sides" so I thought best to lay off trying to find some mutual humour for a while.
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GaryCook
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My conclusion of 40 years on this planet relating to politics, this is actually a more accurate political scale.
Some people won't like it but to be honest to me that's just ego. Nothing personal.
Which is actually the biggest problem in politics.
Only posting this as it may help people trade and understand politics better from a more neutral perspective.
In my opinion. Which I guess is all it can be.
political spectrum.jpg
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Jukebox
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How presumptuous.
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GaryCook
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Jukebox wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:51 pm
How presumptuous.
Me? Maybe some but not being rude as such. People are welcome to debunk my point if they can.

Of course, this is more about trading but I have to be real about this as being an anarchist I don't have recourse for people making often harmful decisions over my life. Democracy doesn't work when more than half of the people in the same country as me cant run their own life well never mind a nation.

I get a bit fed up with it all as its the same every election cycle. Nothing good has really ever come of it. Yet people still do it over and over. I really can't see the sense in that.

Also, if I criticise the left people think I'm on the right and if I criticise the right people think I'm on the left.
To me that says it all.

To me, its tribalism less legit than betting on MAN U or MAN CIty at the weekend.

My POV on it helps me understand people and make money I find so encourages me to think I'm correct.
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