General Election 2019 (UK)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Dallas
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jameegray1 wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:28 pm
Dallas wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:41 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:22 pm
Note sure Labour have learnt much from this defeat. The party line is that Brexit lost them the election, it's so obvious there were so many factors on top of that. It's going to be a long road back.
Just heard a surprising fact that if you take out the Blair years Labour haven't won a GE in 50 years.
It's specifically that they haven't won a majority in 50 years outside of Blair.
Thanks for clarifying, it's been a long and eventful 24hrs and I just happened to partially catch it by listening to question time in the background while reading the forum.
jamesg46
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So to come to a conclusion, how did you all do at trading the election?
jamesg46
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I'll go first, I lost 80p 🤣 because I did exactly what Euler said earlier on in the thread, I took a position on what I thought may happen and not what is actually happening.
weemac
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I broke even, backing no-majority at 48 and then scratching it when the Blyth result came in.

Re the Twitter nonsense, it's not so long since a time where if you wanted your idiotic, self-serving views to be heard by others, you had to go to Hyde Park Corner on a Sunday morning with a stepladder and start shouting your nonsense at whoever was passing by. Nowadays you have a ready audience of thousands from your own living room at any time of day or night. I suppose it isn't surprising that it's most likely the former Hyde Park loonie types who make the most of this new found freedom.

I used to dip into Twitter-world, but got sick of all the garbage and dumped it. I recommend that to anyone who wishes to preserve their sanity.
jamesg46
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weemac wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:57 pm
I broke even, backing no-majority at 48 and then scratching it when the Blyth result came in.

Re the Twitter nonsense, it's not so long since a time where if you wanted your idiotic, self-serving views to be heard by others, you had to go to Hyde Park Corner on a Sunday morning with a stepladder and start shouting your nonsense at whoever was passing by. Nowadays you have a ready audience of thousands from your own living room at any time of day or night. I suppose it isn't surprising that it's most likely the former Hyde Park loonie types who make the most of this new found freedom.

I used to dip into Twitter-world, but got sick of all the garbage and dumped it. I recommend that to anyone who wishes to preserve their sanity.
I've become reasonably good at controlling and aknowliging my behaviour or mood but yeah otherwise I agree!
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Dallas
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Got very little from the main markets, I kept giving it back as quick as I was making it in those early wild moves, partly through having twitter on the back of my mind instead of common sense.
Done slightly better on the corbyn exit market but that's going to take some time to settle.

Overall it was my worst result of the election/referendums since the 2015 indy ref.
greenmark
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Seems to me with Momentum as the party within a party, Labour are screwed.
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Derek27
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This time next year they'll be arguing in Parliament about a no-deal Brexit again.
greenmark
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:43 am
This time next year they'll be arguing in Parliament about a no-deal Brexit again.
You think? With an 80 majority and the whip. I think we are now in the hands of Johnson's integrity. Ratify his deal, then head into trade negotiations with a massive mandate. If the EU have any conscience they should deal with us now.
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
Doesn't that mean they're going to try to hurt us, and take the economic pain?
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Derek27
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greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
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Euler
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jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:45 pm
So to come to a conclusion, how did you all do at trading the election?
The volatility, given the lack of information on overall majority, was quite curious. So I was top and bottom slicing it to get a gross traded total on the market. The seat total on the spread betting markets was creeping up all night, so I lumped all the profit on a conservative majority. When the exit poll was announced, my work was done. So it would have been all or nothing for me. But it seemed fairly clear that, if you ignored the fuss on social media, a clear majority was going to happen.

Dutched the turnout market aiming for slightly higher turnout, so that wasn't a terrible idea. But turnout was lower by about 1%, so the importance of the election didn't seem to shift that as much as I thought.
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Euler
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greenmark wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:46 pm
Seems to me with Momentum as the party within a party, Labour are screwed.
Alan Johnson absolutely nailed it: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo
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Euler
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
I don't think he or anybody thought it was done, just a nice soundbite. In Politics it seems you can't have a detailed argument, you just need a strapline.
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
The UK is in a much better position to get a better trade deal now - surely that is a good thing
greenmark
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:30 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30 am
greenmark wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:08 am
But can the EU give any kind of favourable deal to us. It would set a precedent that would be an existential threat to the EU.
That's what I mean. That dic#;%*d Johnson thinks Brexit's 'done' when the exit's been agreed. End of next year without a satisfactory trade deal we're likely to be leaving the EU without any deal.
The UK is in a much better position to get a better trade deal now - surely that is a good thing
You'd certainly hope so. Business people must have breathed a huge sigh of relief at the election result. Stabillity at least till end of June.
Beyond that it all depends on the attitude of the EU. Boris has ruled extending the transition beyond so Dec 2020. His majority means that is now cast in stone as the deadine for any of the agreements.
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