US Democratic Nominee 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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alonzoharris
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:19 pm

Last week Joe Biden was priced @ 14.5, which was good value and could not believe it as I knew Bernie Sanders was not the favourite. This has been one of my most profitable trades this year. Who else saw this opportunity?
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

I'm surprised there isn't a thread for this market yet.

It really lit up last night when Biden made a massive comeback in the super Tuesday Primaries
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .128161111
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marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Started out completely wrong there, I had positions against sanders and biden, and for buttigieg and bloomberg.

What surprises me is that hillary clinton has the 3rd best odds of becoming the nominee. It's hard to see that materialize. Perhaps if it ends as a tie between sanders and biden, and a commission then nominates clinton.
sa7med
Posts: 800
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 8:01 am

Oh wow I should've been looking at this.

How the hell are hillary clinton and michelle obama on there? And at throwaway prices
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .128161111
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

hope you let your bet run
Dr_Zoidberg
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:09 am

I see Hillary is sitting on the third line of betting and has had some support. I have very little idea about the political processes in the US, what would have to happen for her to be the Democratic Nominee given she's not contesting the primaries?
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Diacritical Quark wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:00 am
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=20653
Title and section it was in made it hard to find, so I've merged the two into one thread now
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It's been a fascinating market so far.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Dr_Zoidberg wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:22 pm
I see Hillary is sitting on the third line of betting and has had some support. I have very little idea about the political processes in the US, what would have to happen for her to be the Democratic Nominee given she's not contesting the primaries?
She's there because she hasn't definitively said no to making a run at it and because it's possible that there will be a contested convention (explained here https://nyti.ms/2PJPLRb )

In a contested convention you have the added complication of Super delegates. Unlike pledged delegates who are shared out depending on the results in the primaries and caucuses super delegates can vote for whoever they want even if that person isn't on the ballot. If you believe what some 'experts' and Bernie Sanders himself has said the establishment don't want Sanders as the nominee but after Biden's performance on Super Tuesday you would think the establishment would rally behind him (Biden) rather than deal in Hillary

Its still very unlikely but would make great tv! :D
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PDC
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Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:52 pm

Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Biden into favourite for the 1st time in the next president market



Screenshot_2020-03-13 2020 US Presidential Election Next President Betting Odds » Betfair™ Exchange.png
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Could they have picked a worse candidate again with creepy Joe 8-)
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

He's the best option to beat Trump, having said that I think COVID-19 is doing half the job for him
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Whats creepy about him seems allright
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