US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
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Naffman
Posts: 4582
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Thought I'd start this thread so it doesn't get muddled up in other topics

Trump 2.08
Biden 2.24

Have at it :P
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rik
Posts: 1095
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Biden aged a lot, might have early dementia, they should have gotten someone younger really
jamesg46
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:08 pm
Thought I'd start this thread so it doesn't get muddled up in other topics

Trump 2.08
Biden 2.24

Have at it :P
Trump would win this hands down if all he did from now until November was to shut his mouth & stop trying to explain what he doesn't understand or further more, what nobody understands.

The inject bleach has really damaged the way he will be perceived & Joe Biden is already all over it. The actual fact that scientists are researching everything from bleach to Tic-Taks as a possible cure is something that he should leave to science, instead he wants to be the smart guy that tells everyone hes a really smart guy & it was him that saved the world before anybody else could.

Biden with dementia now has a shot over Trumps ego. God help us all when the most powerful country on earth is in this sort of pickle. The people who will actually get things done stay away from stages & thank god those people exist.
eileendover
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Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:56 pm

i can see trumps odds only lenghthening if like naffman says he contines to open his mouth and bleat moronic statements to the entire country,surely to goodness,the entire world must be hoping he doesn't get another term!
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johnsheppard
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Location: Cairns Australia

This is the URL.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plu ... .128151441

Anyone got any tips on how you go about trading elections? I'm not too sure historical data would be of much use, and there's a gazillion unknowns?

Is it a matter of just putting down your bet after you see some short term bad news on the radio or some such? I.e. Trump says, drink acid, it's good for killing corona... probably better value going for trump right? (as long as its long enough away from the election that people will forget about it)
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gazuty
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I've built a small profit on this one.

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johnsheppard wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:20 am

Anyone got any tips on how you go about trading elections? I'm not too sure historical data would be of much use, and there's a gazillion unknowns?
Um, well I'm coming from the perspective where I didn't think Trump could get the nomination for the GOP last time round (five figure mistake) and so :?
johnsheppard wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:20 am
Is it a matter of just putting down your bet after you see some short term bad news on the radio or some such? I.e. Trump says, drink acid, it's good for killing corona... probably better value going for trump right? (as long as its long enough away from the election that people will forget about it)
One thing I would think about - "it's the economy stupid". With an expectation of coronavirus fading into the rear vision mirror (big assumption, but if it does), then come September, October and leading into the big Tuesday in November, with a gazillion unemployed in the US - who you gunna vote for to give you a chance of gettin' a job or keepin' ya' job. Coronavirus might kill, but if you live, you need to work for a hell a lot more time than coronavirus is going to be around (IMHO).
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Naffman
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Seen on twitter there's a political analyst for Betfair called the Political Gambler, he's so subjective it's unreal for someone trying to bet in politics. You can see from his timeline he hates Tories and hates Trump, he laid Trump months ago before the crisis at 2.4 (stupid) :lol:

Now I'm not trying to be subjective as well but I can imagine a lot of Americans like Trump's stance on China, yes he's said some idiot things but I feel like people hate the politically correct left and the MSM that much that voting Trump is almost a way of getting back at them, kind of how a lot of Labour voters over here switched sides.
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

The Trump situation imo is fascinating, hes had every single book thrown at him & yet still manages to keep his support, hes now facing an economic disaster aswell as the virus pandemic & he suddenly decides to start giving the opposition books to throw at him. If he keeps his support through all of this the only thing left for the Dems to do is to take him out. His drain the swamp speeches aren't a million miles away from JFK'S secret society's speech & if there is something in that (which many believe the CIA to be the swamp) then it could be a very possible outcome. I think Betfair even have a void market if it does happen.
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:21 pm
I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.
Without the popular vote and the woke delusion there is millions of people hoping a straw breaks a camel's back but I have to agree with you, you try and get the following person to change their mind about Trump.

https://twitter.com/GemmaYoung/status/1 ... 30592?s=19
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