Jukebox wrote: ↑Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:49 amHe should be alright - so long as he doesn't do anything more stressful than the average 78 year old..jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:41 amIn the USA a 78 year old has roughly a 1 in 20 chance of dying in a year. Therefore roughly 1 in 200 in the 40 days between election and EC vote. No wonder there was interest in Harris at 1000/1.
Indeed, although it does seem fitting that a market, where questions have been asked about the mental state and health of both main candidates, should have ill-defined settlement terms.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:18 pmI've asked before on this thread, what is the definition of a 'projected EC vote'? I doubt anyone's sure but my guess is that Biden has already aquired the majority of them. Either way, I wouldn't want to back Biden without fully understanding the rules and I'm not sure Betfair fully understand what they've written.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:45 pmCould refer to the 'projected votes' of the EC following the Dec 14th meeting. Thus why BF specifically call out the 'faithless electors' clause. ie the result is based on what the Electors agree to vote for, not who they actually vote for.
Depending on how you interpret the rules, some people may feel that Kamala has no chance of winning as Biden may be deemed to have the most projected votes, even if anything did prevent him from assuming office.LeTiss wrote: ↑Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:23 amIt's remarkable that the market still alive, but I'm more amazed by the Kamala Harris price than Trump
What are the chances of Trump turning this around? - Very Slim
What are the chances of old man Biden being taken ill and not able to take office? - Slim
There's currently £85000 available at 1000!
I wouldn't be offering 1000 on Harris right now
Trump ain't going to pull it off, he is losing everywhere.BREAKING: Wisconsin's presidential recount is completed. Joe Biden gained 87 votes and again won the state.
Trump becomes the first presidential candidate in history to lose recounts in two different states.
Trump and his allies remain 1-39 in post-election litigation.
Euler wrote: ↑Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:45 pmTrump ain't going to pull it off, he is losing everywhere.BREAKING: Wisconsin's presidential recount is completed. Joe Biden gained 87 votes and again won the state.
Trump becomes the first presidential candidate in history to lose recounts in two different states.
Trump and his allies remain 1-39 in post-election litigation.
From what you've said, it sounds like the Trump camp have asked the FBI to investigate and they're asking for evidence of illegal ballots before they even begin an investigation.jamesg46 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:09 amhttps://twitter.com/MattBraynard/status ... 12067?s=19
Former data chief and strategist to Trump claims FBI have requested findings from him that indicates illegal ballots.
If that's true then it means the FBI are investigating election fraud.... how do the states sign off on the integrity of the vote if there is an active investigation.
This market is going on way past 14th December, I'm sticking with this gets decided in a contingent election, vote to go to the House of Representatives.
Shame there isn't a market for that.
Oh, I don't know about that. Could well be true, certainly sounds possible because in his tweet it says all evidence will be handed in by Tuesday.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:57 amFrom what you've said, it sounds like the Trump camp have asked the FBI to investigate and they're asking for evidence of illegal ballots before they even begin an investigation.jamesg46 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:09 amhttps://twitter.com/MattBraynard/status ... 12067?s=19
Former data chief and strategist to Trump claims FBI have requested findings from him that indicates illegal ballots.
If that's true then it means the FBI are investigating election fraud.... how do the states sign off on the integrity of the vote if there is an active investigation.
This market is going on way past 14th December, I'm sticking with this gets decided in a contingent election, vote to go to the House of Representatives.
Shame there isn't a market for that.
Bloody hell, that a bleak forecastChrisF wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:08 amJoe Biden has fractured his ankle and is now in some sort of pot. He was at the hospital on the 28th, if he's a unlucky chap give it 5 to 7 days until he has corona virus and 10 to 15 days until he's dead, well before the electrol college declares. The VP is looking a great bet at 1000 to 1.
It's funny how all evidence is always due to be handed in tomorrow or next week, they'll be saying that in two years time.
You are hopeful.ChrisF wrote: ↑Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:08 amJoe Biden has fractured his ankle and is now in some sort of pot. He was at the hospital on the 28th, if he's a unlucky chap give it 5 to 7 days until he has corona virus and 10 to 15 days until he's dead, well before the electrol college declares. The VP is looking a great bet at 1000 to 1.
As has been stated before, even in the unlikely event of Biden's passing before the 14th it doesn't necessarily mean he won't be declared the winner of the Betfair market.
