US Presidential Election 2020

[Dallas]

Useful site I used in 2016, showing all the past results broke down into states as well as all the latest polls and much more
https://www.270towin.com/historical-pre ... elections/

[Naffman]

BLM trying to hand PA to Trump on a silver platter

[Lutruwita]

Trump looks completely cooked looking at polling. At this point in 2016 he was about 1/2 the gap behind Clinton as he is with Biden. If it wasn't for the last election Biden would be $1.10.

However, Florida is really closing up which is interesting.

[Naffman]

Trump looks completely cooked looking at polling. At this point in 2016 he was about 1/2 the gap behind Clinton as he is with Biden. If it wasn't for the last election Biden would be $1.10.

However, Florida is really closing up which is interesting.

It's also become a lot more 'socially unacceptable' to support Trump than it was in 2016

But if you look at the polls and nothing else then you'd be loading into Biden

If anyone can make as many errors as Joe Biden has over the last few weeks (says eliminating oil and fracking, running for Senate, running against George Bush, hints at packing the court, Hunter, doing the least amount of campaigning etc) and still win then fair play the Americans must really hate Trump.

[Naffman]

Republicans bridging the gap again by 55,000 in FL.

At this rate the GOP should be ahead there come election day, where most voters on that day are historically Rep. voters too

[LeTiss]

Another example this afternoon of how XM distorts the integrity of the markets......at least I'm assuming it's XM!!

I had layed Biden in Next President market and my offset was at 1.52 - there was £10,400 sat on 1.52 when I entered

5 mins later that became £89,000 - however, it took £40,000 of it to be matched before I did!!

This is plain wrong. I don't believe the honesty of BF at times

[Long Term]

I think we are seeing more of this type of "inconsistencies" from Betfair, almost certainly to the detriment of the individual trader.

[ChrisF]

I have just backed 200 on harris at 700 to 1 and 100 on pence at 1000 to 1 to be the next president. I maybe wrong but I see these as good bets especially the harris bet. The president is not declared until the 20th Jan 2021, in that time between either candidate winning a lot could happen, especially biden, I really can't see him lasting that long without him getting bumped aside.

If trump wins which I really hope he does then maybe I'll be on the lossing side but if biden wins I think I'm in for a bumper payday. My reasoning is here: https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-bide ... at-happens
So I'm assuming this market ie next president will not close while the 20th Jan 2020. Thoughts please

[Derek27]

I have just backed 200 on harris at 700 to 1 and 100 on pence at 1000 to 1 to be the next president. I maybe wrong but I see these as good bets especially the harris bet. The president is not declared until the 20th Jan 2021, in that time between either candidate winning a lot could happen, especially biden, I really can't see him lasting that long without him getting bumped aside.

If trump wins which I really hope he does then maybe I'll be on the lossing side but if biden wins I think I'm in for a bumper payday. My reasoning is here: https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-bide ... at-happens
So I'm assuming this market ie next president will not close while the 20th Jan 2020. Thoughts please

It's not a good idea to place bets without knowing the rules of the market. You only need to click on the 'rules' button on the Betfair market page.

Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

My interpretation of that (which may be wrong) is that you're betting on who gets elected, not the next president.

[Tuco]

...what if the result is disputed Derek and ends up in the courts...during which time there is a death?

[Derek27]

...what if the result is disputed Derek and ends up in the courts...during which time there is a death?

That's my very point, if you're going to bet £300 you shouldn't assume the rules. It might be an idea next time to quote the rules in the first post of the thread. I'll leave you to chew over this:

Next President - Rules
Event Start Time
03 November 2020, 11:00
Win Only Market

MARKET INFORMATION

For further information please see Rules & Regs.

Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

Additional candidates may be added to this market on request.

Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.

Customers should be aware that:

Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.

The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.


Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules. 16:00 17/06/2020 –Market rules have been updated to reflect new information above..

If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020)

[Derek27]

The quote below would at least put a doubt in my mind as to whether a death before inaugural day would have any effect.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

[Tuco]

I do personally think there is room for alternative/differing interpretations of the quoted rules and in addition to both the 12th and 20th Amendments which could yet play a role in the outcome.

[Derek27]

I do personally think there is room for alternative/differing interpretations of the quoted rules and in addition to both the 12th and 20th Amendments which could yet play a role in the outcome.

This part's quite clear: Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

As I write Nigel Farage is sucking-up to Trump.

[Derek27]

This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/