US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? :D Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!

I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
Not getting involved in the market but I hope you're right and make a fortune out of it. :)
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Derek27
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pm
Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:27 am
Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Biden has consistency led in the polls all year
That's the thing though isn't it, 538 gave Biden a 3.8pt lead on Feb 26th which was pre-covid, does anyone actually believe Biden would've won earlier in the year?
I think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.

As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
Trump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".

The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:23 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pm
Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:27 am


That's the thing though isn't it, 538 gave Biden a 3.8pt lead on Feb 26th which was pre-covid, does anyone actually believe Biden would've won earlier in the year?
I think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.

As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
Trump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".

The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!
Take it you aren't a fan :lol:
nivi7
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#KAG
Emmson
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What happened to Naffman's bullishness about Trump's chances?

For myself I don't completely exclude a shock Trump win but think its unlikely.
jamesg46
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Not that it really matters but I've been on the fence with who will win but I'm taking a punt on Trump with an absolute landslide of a victory.

Either way I'm just gonna grab some beers and snacks for election night, Joe Rogans podcast on one screen and CNN on another... who melts first, Alex Jones or a CNN host will be my entertainment for the night.
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Naffman
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Emmson wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:26 pm
What happened to Naffman's bullishness about Trump's chances?

For myself I don't completely exclude a shock Trump win but think its unlikely.
Haven't gone anywhere have I? :lol:

I know early voting is hard to read especially with covid around but I've been saying it appears Biden is fucked in Florida
Last edited by Naffman on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Naffman
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jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:39 pm
Not that it really matters but I've been on the fence with who will win but I'm taking a punt on Trump with an absolute landslide of a victory.

Either way I'm just gonna grab some beers and snacks for election night, Joe Rogans podcast on one screen and CNN on another... who melts first, Alex Jones or a CNN host will be my entertainment for the night.
:lol: :lol:
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Bog
Posts: 190
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:19 am

Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? :D Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!

I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
If you have so much trust in the polls, put your money where your mouth is, put your house on Biden :D I will trade live on election day, should be fun... :geek: I just hope I don't forget the date, hope Biden "Four more years of George, er, George, er" doesn't forget also...

ps... I was joking, don't bet your house :lol:
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 am
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 am
This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/
When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
Not only in America, wherever you draw electoral boundaries then the system is bound to end up with anomolies. Even in single electorate proportionate systems there can outcomes where minorites combine together to frustate an almost majority.

If the US presidental election were reduced to a pure popular vote then California, the East Coast and the mid North would rule the outcome (with a nod to Texas) and the complaint would be the voters in interior have little influence and hence their concerns would be forgotten. There are of course some States pushing a system based on the popular vote where if States representing 270 or more electoral college votes sign up, then there would be a system in those States of guaranteeing the outcome on the popular vote by directing their electoral college delegates to vote in accordance with the popular vote regardless of the State vote.

First female prime ministers in both Australia and NZ both "lost" elections but managed to pull together parliamentary majorities out of narrow losses to overturn the popular vote.

Most lower house parliaments tend towards a system of having equal numbers of constituents per seat. But upper houses things get wild. The US with its 2 senators per state is moving towards a very skewed outcome. In Australia, it is easier to get elected to the Federal Senate in Tasmania than win a council seat in some of the larger Sydney councils. (I am not familiar with Irish ☘️ politics but the upper house doesn’t look very representative from a quick overview - can you discuss the Irish system?).

The electoral college does give a greater voice to the interior in the US in a way that the founding fathers would probably approve of.
Last edited by gazuty on Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Naffman
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Biden calls Trump supporters 'ugly folks' - what a great way to fire up Trump's base for election day
Stooky
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Trump's at a lot shorter odds than when he won in 2016. You could still get him on the night whilst the results were coming in at 3.5 when it was obvious he was going to win - everone was in complete denial. With COVID and the crazy nature of civil unrest in the US this year I wouldn't give too much notice to the polls, look at the recent UK election which got swayed by Brexit, the polls got it wong by a wide margin although they got the result right. I wouldn't be surprised if it tightens up in the next few days, but he is too short this time to seriously get involved. Will have to enjoy from the sidelines...
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:27 am
Biden calls Trump supporters 'ugly folks' - what a great way to fire up Trump's base for election day
I'm glad a lot of people have voted early, reducing the impact of any last-minute blunder.
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firlandsfarm
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:08 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:27 am
Biden calls Trump supporters 'ugly folks' - what a great way to fire up Trump's base for election day
I'm glad a lot of people have voted early, reducing the impact of any last-minute blunder.
By whom? I would say the risks are self cancelling! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Derek27
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:10 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:08 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:27 am
Biden calls Trump supporters 'ugly folks' - what a great way to fire up Trump's base for election day
I'm glad a lot of people have voted early, reducing the impact of any last-minute blunder.
By whom? I would say the risks are self cancelling! :lol: :lol: :lol:
The man ahead in the polls/betting has more to lose. Trump can't really slip up because every flipping word he utters is garbage to the point that nobody even notices!
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