US Presidential Election 2020
Trump's at a lot shorter odds than when he won in 2016. You could still get him on the night whilst the results were coming in at 3.5 when it was obvious he was going to win - everone was in complete denial. With COVID and the crazy nature of civil unrest in the US this year I wouldn't give too much notice to the polls, look at the recent UK election which got swayed by Brexit, the polls got it wong by a wide margin although they got the result right. I wouldn't be surprised if it tightens up in the next few days, but he is too short this time to seriously get involved. Will have to enjoy from the sidelines...
-
firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2722
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
By whom? I would say the risks are self cancelling!
The man ahead in the polls/betting has more to lose. Trump can't really slip up because every flipping word he utters is garbage to the point that nobody even notices!
-
firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2722
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:31 pmThe man ahead in the polls/betting has more to lose. Trump can't really slip up because every flipping word he utters is garbage to the point that nobody even notices!
Too serious Derek, too serious!
-
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
gazuty wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:44 pmNot only in America, wherever you draw electoral boundaries then the system is bound to end up with anomolies. Even in single electorate proportionate systems there can outcomes where minorites combine together to frustate an almost majority.
If the US presidental election were reduced to a pure popular vote then California, the East Coast and the mid North would rule the outcome (with a nod to Texas) and the complaint would be the voters in interior have little influence and hence their concerns would be forgotten. There are of course some States pushing a system based on the popular vote where if States representing 270 or more electoral college votes sign up, then there would be a system in those States of guaranteeing the outcome on the popular vote by directing their electoral college delegates to vote in accordance with the popular vote regardless of the State vote.
First female prime ministers in both Australia and NZ both "lost" elections but managed to pull together parliamentary majorities out of narrow losses to overturn the popular vote.
Most lower house parliaments tend towards a system of having equal numbers of constituents per seat. But upper houses things get wild. The US with its 2 senators per state is moving towards a very skewed outcome. In Australia, it is easier to get elected to the Federal Senate in Tasmania than win a council seat in some of the larger Sydney councils. (I am not familiar with Irishpolitics but the upper house doesn’t look very representative from a quick overview - can you discuss the Irish system?).
The electoral college does give a greater voice to the interior in the US in a way that the founding fathers would probably approve of.
politics but the upper house doesn’t look very representative from a quick overview - can you discuss the Irish system?). I think the fairest and most democratic system would be if the Electoral College votes were split, so if Trump won 80% of the vote in Texas he would get 80% of the EC votes and the other 20% would go to Biden. At least then everyone who votes would know their vote actually counted and meant something. Problem from a Republican point of view with that system is it would increase turnout and the Republicans themselves have admitted many times that if everyone in the US voted then the Democrats would probably win every election! So it will probably never happen even though it has some support.
The upper house in Irish politics (The Seaned) is basically ceremonial and doesn't have much legislative power. Its members aren't even voted in by the public. Only elected politicians from the lower house ( The Dáil) can elect members of the Seaned. Only other people to my knowledge that can elect people to the Seaned are graduates from Trinity College and The National University of Ireland, and I think members of the various city councils of Ireland. Its an elitist organisation basically a bit like the House of Lords only with less power. There was a referendum in 2013 to abolish the Seaned but it was voted down by the public for some reason so we're stuck with them waffling on!
We have a proportional representation system so when we vote we can choose to give a 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... preference to another candidate on the ballot. It means if our number 1 choice doesn't need our vote ( because they've been elected with a surplus of votes or eliminated from the count) then your vote goes to your second choice and so on down the ballot paper.
We have more choice here though than a lot of countries. We have 2 main parties historically, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and then Sinn Féin, Labour and the Greens. Sinn Féin actually won more votes in the last election but didn't have enough for a majority and neither Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael would go into government with them so they couldn't form a coalition. In the end Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael formed a coalition with the Green Party so its pretty dysfunctional!
-
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Your probably have that Derek.
UK commons first past the post, no preference voting, most votes wins the electorate.
House of Lords -
-
Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
You may need to go lower than ten....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1zXFKC_o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umpalMtQE50
And yeah yeah, I do realise, they edit, pick and choose, and it means nothing in terms of big numbers and data, we all love on here. Doesn't stop it being funny and sad though
Enjoyed those clips, thanks. Love to see Muricans flex their interrigenceKafkaesque wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:44 pmYou may need to go lower than ten....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1zXFKC_o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umpalMtQE50
And yeah yeah, I do realise, they edit, pick and choose, and it means nothing in terms of big numbers and data, we all love on here. Doesn't stop it being funny and sad though
"South Africa must be somewhere in the north of Africa".Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:44 pmYou may need to go lower than ten....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1zXFKC_o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umpalMtQE50
And yeah yeah, I do realise, they edit, pick and choose, and it means nothing in terms of big numbers and data, we all love on here. Doesn't stop it being funny and sad though
I'd love to know how many people they asked to come up with those doughnuts. A lot of people aren't very good at geography but how does anyone not know where they themselves live on a map of the world? 