US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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greenmark wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:01 am
Given that the President elect has access to the very best medical expertise, I doubt that him dropping dead is remotely likely.
I'm afraid it's an absolute certainty at some point - no amount of medical care can prevent it. :P
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Derek27
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jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:54 pm
Betfair confirming that they will likely settle the market after the EC votes on December 14th

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us ... 0-204.html
Explains the interest on Trump and Harris since the vote then. If Biden was to die before 14th it's possible the EC could agree to vote for Harris in his place. Also it's possible Trump could get to the EC and overturn their voting.
I wouldn't be surprised if Biden was still the winner in those circumstances as he has the most projected votes. They normally settle the market as soon as the loser concedes which implies the death of the president elect wouldn't affect the market.
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jamesedwards
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:52 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:54 pm
Betfair confirming that they will likely settle the market after the EC votes on December 14th

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us ... 0-204.html
Explains the interest on Trump and Harris since the vote then. If Biden was to die before 14th it's possible the EC could agree to vote for Harris in his place. Also it's possible Trump could get to the EC and overturn their voting.
I wouldn't be surprised if Biden was still the winner in those circumstances as he has the most projected votes. They normally settle the market as soon as the loser concedes which implies the death of the president elect wouldn't affect the market.
Could refer to the 'projected votes' of the EC following the Dec 14th meeting. Thus why BF specifically call out the 'faithless electors' clause. ie the result is based on what the Electors agree to vote for, not who they actually vote for.
Archery1969
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What does "Pennsylvania Republican Legislature To Reclaim Electoral Votes" mean ? :roll:
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Derek27
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jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:52 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:56 pm


Explains the interest on Trump and Harris since the vote then. If Biden was to die before 14th it's possible the EC could agree to vote for Harris in his place. Also it's possible Trump could get to the EC and overturn their voting.
I wouldn't be surprised if Biden was still the winner in those circumstances as he has the most projected votes. They normally settle the market as soon as the loser concedes which implies the death of the president elect wouldn't affect the market.
Could refer to the 'projected votes' of the EC following the Dec 14th meeting. Thus why BF specifically call out the 'faithless electors' clause. ie the result is based on what the Electors agree to vote for, not who they actually vote for.
I've asked before on this thread, what is the definition of a 'projected EC vote'? I doubt anyone's sure but my guess is that Biden has already aquired the majority of them. Either way, I wouldn't want to back Biden without fully understanding the rules and I'm not sure Betfair fully understand what they've written. :)
Anbell
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Jukebox wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:49 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:41 am
In the USA a 78 year old has roughly a 1 in 20 chance of dying in a year. Therefore roughly 1 in 200 in the 40 days between election and EC vote. No wonder there was interest in Harris at 1000/1.
He should be alright - so long as he doesn't do anything more stressful than the average 78 year old..
:lol:
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LeTiss
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It's remarkable that the market still alive, but I'm more amazed by the Kamala Harris price than Trump

What are the chances of Trump turning this around? - Very Slim
What are the chances of old man Biden being taken ill and not able to take office? - Slim

There's currently £85000 available at 1000!
I wouldn't be offering 1000 on Harris right now
burntheory
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:18 pm
jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:52 am

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden was still the winner in those circumstances as he has the most projected votes. They normally settle the market as soon as the loser concedes which implies the death of the president elect wouldn't affect the market.
Could refer to the 'projected votes' of the EC following the Dec 14th meeting. Thus why BF specifically call out the 'faithless electors' clause. ie the result is based on what the Electors agree to vote for, not who they actually vote for.
I've asked before on this thread, what is the definition of a 'projected EC vote'? I doubt anyone's sure but my guess is that Biden has already aquired the majority of them. Either way, I wouldn't want to back Biden without fully understanding the rules and I'm not sure Betfair fully understand what they've written. :)
Indeed, although it does seem fitting that a market, where questions have been asked about the mental state and health of both main candidates, should have ill-defined settlement terms.

Who's on first base?...or...Who is on first base.
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Derek27
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LeTiss wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:23 am
It's remarkable that the market still alive, but I'm more amazed by the Kamala Harris price than Trump

What are the chances of Trump turning this around? - Very Slim
What are the chances of old man Biden being taken ill and not able to take office? - Slim

There's currently £85000 available at 1000!
I wouldn't be offering 1000 on Harris right now
Depending on how you interpret the rules, some people may feel that Kamala has no chance of winning as Biden may be deemed to have the most projected votes, even if anything did prevent him from assuming office.
Archery1969
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This week could see Mr T's odds shorten again.
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Euler
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BREAKING: Wisconsin's presidential recount is completed. Joe Biden gained 87 votes and again won the state.

Trump becomes the first presidential candidate in history to lose recounts in two different states.

Trump and his allies remain 1-39 in post-election litigation.
Trump ain't going to pull it off, he is losing everywhere.
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wearthefoxhat
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Euler wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:45 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin's presidential recount is completed. Joe Biden gained 87 votes and again won the state.

Trump becomes the first presidential candidate in history to lose recounts in two different states.

Trump and his allies remain 1-39 in post-election litigation.
Trump ain't going to pull it off, he is losing everywhere.
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jamesg46
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https://twitter.com/MattBraynard/status ... 12067?s=19

Former data chief and strategist to Trump claims FBI have requested findings from him that indicates illegal ballots.

If that's true then it means the FBI are investigating election fraud.... how do the states sign off on the integrity of the vote if there is an active investigation.

This market is going on way past 14th December, I'm sticking with this gets decided in a contingent election, vote to go to the House of Representatives.

Shame there isn't a market for that.
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Derek27
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Joe Biden's sprained his ankle and he's drifted a tick. :lol:
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:09 am
https://twitter.com/MattBraynard/status ... 12067?s=19

Former data chief and strategist to Trump claims FBI have requested findings from him that indicates illegal ballots.

If that's true then it means the FBI are investigating election fraud.... how do the states sign off on the integrity of the vote if there is an active investigation.

This market is going on way past 14th December, I'm sticking with this gets decided in a contingent election, vote to go to the House of Representatives.

Shame there isn't a market for that.
From what you've said, it sounds like the Trump camp have asked the FBI to investigate and they're asking for evidence of illegal ballots before they even begin an investigation.
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