US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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johnsheppard
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Euler wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:52 pm
Lots of polls given Biden the lead, but seemingly not reflected in the market. Or the polls are biased or inaccurately based?
I didn't follow, it except from a long distance.... In the 2019 Australian Federal Election I believe the polls had labour in easy peasy.... so did the Betfair odds in that market (so that's different)... turned out The coalition won....

Not sure if that means anything... in regards to polls meaning anything that is...
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johnsheppard
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I'm curious, do any of you guys record long term markets like this? Not so sure screen capture is all that practical or possible...
Vladimir CC
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Another african-american fatally shot by police in Atlanta. Donald Trump keeps drifting and drifting.
Last edited by Vladimir CC on Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Naffman
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Vladimir CC wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:21 am
Another african-american fatally shot in Atlanta. Donald Trump keeps drifting and drifting.
All these protests/white hating helps the Donald imo
Vladimir CC
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Naffman wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:22 am
Vladimir CC wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:21 am
Another african-american fatally shot in Atlanta. Donald Trump keeps drifting and drifting.
All these protests/white hating helps the Donald imo
From what I read, alot of his supporters criticize him for doing nothing, rather than using the force to stop the violence. Before the protests, was at 2.10. Rose to 2.34, got back at 2.24 after he made a speech at the white house, and drifted again when the protests intensified in democrat cities. Last night was at 2.4something.
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LeTiss
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I have grown extremely cynical in my later years

I believe this BLM movement is being fuelled and orchestrated by the media and Democrats, who together are desperate to defeat Trump in November
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Naffman
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It's not like Trump needs the african-american vote as they nearly all voted for Clinton last time around, the white vote will be a lot more pro Trump thanks to BLM and people forget about the latinos, I imagine they're quite pissed off with it all
jamesg46
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LeTiss wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:38 am
I have grown extremely cynical in my later years

I believe this BLM movement is being fuelled and orchestrated by the media and Democrats, who together are desperate to defeat Trump in November
Similar thoughts have taken time up in my mental space too & in all honesty I have to agree with you. It's turning into, or maybe already has turned into a full blown political war. The fight for media propaganda allies is clear to see, the "Left" are winning this imo, CNN, Twitter, YouTube (although still on the fence a little) while the "Right" have Fox and I'm not sure what came of the Trump/Facebook meetings. Influence over the narrative imo is being sold by the media outlets to the highest bidding political party, you dont have to scroll down too far to find Trump tweeting "Its time to find a new media outlet" referring to Fox dishing out news he doesn't like, or calls "fake" - I actually think that the vast majority of the news, both Left & Right is either manipulated or just flat out BS.

The thing that pulls on my curiosity is tribalism. When I think about it, with the Left (as we believe) influencing the narrative on most MSM outlets & the Right just flat out denying their voices as "Fake News" then what it comes down to for both parties is playing their base, and with no 3rd party that could come sweeping in straight down the centre then things can only continue in one fierce direction.

I personally have no side, I prefer to take an overview approach and if something makes sense to me from either side then I'll listen to it, but with so much manipulation its hard to get through the noise, & let's face it, it's mostly noise. Social media goes hyper over even the smallest of issues, social media justice warriors jump from one bandwagon to the next... I do wonder sometimes if one day a 60 year old person is going to reflect back on their life and be suddenly hit with the realisation that they've been sat on their mobile phones for the past 40 years scrolling through an echo chamber and now their life has gone before them.
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Kafkaesque
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On the podcast with Joe Rogan, I mentioned elsewhere Bret Weinstein just put forward trying to get Andrew Yang and William McRaven to run as independents, being dead serious about. Running together and holding office that is, making joint decisions! With one of them only being president in name! Yang being moderately left and McRaven moderately right.

Joint decisions is a pipe dream, but a left-right coalition President and Vice-President could be just what the US needs right about now. Less sure the US public will agree unfortunately. All the same, have taken a small position on 1000-1 on Yang just for the hell of it. Not about to get a much bigger platform than Rogan to get the idea trending.
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Cards37
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Total matched just short of $70m and its still June!
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Kafkaesque wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:35 am
On the podcast with Joe Rogan, I mentioned .....
For a brief moment I thought you were actually on the podcast. :)
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johnsheppard
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I am feeling noob like....There's seems to me to be lots of spoofing...big spoofing in this market. I haven't really watched elections before, could anyone tell me is that a pretty common thing? or am I reading it wrong?

I haven't got Betangel open on this puta but attached is a image from the website. Seems to me those Biden 1.70, 1.71 is like 80% spoof? and those trump 2.8, 2.82 are not real either...

Where would you guys put you life savings? :)
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ShaunWhite
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Those amounts don't seem unusual for this type of market.

Imo the only way to fool a market like this would be to actually start a run then hope it gains some momentum on the back of it being noticed, and hope it goes a few ticks past where you took it. Sticking up a few offers for a couple of hundred grand isn't going to fool anyone, it's money actually being taken that might spark a signal. Even a couple of million on offer wouldn't suprise me, it's not a lot of money these days if the big boys wanted to have a bit of an interest. A million to a billionaire is only like a tenner to someone with 10k in the bank, pocket change.
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johnsheppard
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:43 am
Those amounts don't seem unusual for this type of market.

Imo the only way to fool a market like this would be to actually start a run then hope it gains some momentum on the back of it being noticed, and hope it goes a few ticks past where you took it. Sticking up a few offers for a couple of hundred grand isn't going to fool anyone, it's money actually being taken that might spark a signal. Even a couple of million on offer wouldn't suprise me, it's not a lot of money these days if the big boys wanted to have a bit of an interest. A million to a billionaire is only like a tenner to someone with 10k in the bank, pocket change.
Thanks Shaun, true, I think you'd be right it'd be hard to fool this market.

One thing that made me think it was spoof was last week some time I saw $6000 or so in out in out...the other thing was that there's so much sitting there within a few ticks (and on one side), then not very much further out....but I suppose I still have lots to learn...

Trump bounced off 3.00, 48 hours ago and Biden still hovered around 1.7, has been for a week or so now I think if my memory works....
Anbell
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johnsheppard wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:37 am
Trump bounced off 3.00, 48 hours ago and Biden still hovered around 1.7, has been for a week or so now I think if my memory works....
He's only 1.1 to be the nominee. I wanted to lay him, but that's a rich price.
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