US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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gazuty
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:35 am
On the podcast with Joe Rogan, I mentioned .....
For a brief moment I thought you were actually on the podcast. :)
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johnsheppard
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I am feeling noob like....There's seems to me to be lots of spoofing...big spoofing in this market. I haven't really watched elections before, could anyone tell me is that a pretty common thing? or am I reading it wrong?

I haven't got Betangel open on this puta but attached is a image from the website. Seems to me those Biden 1.70, 1.71 is like 80% spoof? and those trump 2.8, 2.82 are not real either...

Where would you guys put you life savings? :)
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ShaunWhite
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Those amounts don't seem unusual for this type of market.

Imo the only way to fool a market like this would be to actually start a run then hope it gains some momentum on the back of it being noticed, and hope it goes a few ticks past where you took it. Sticking up a few offers for a couple of hundred grand isn't going to fool anyone, it's money actually being taken that might spark a signal. Even a couple of million on offer wouldn't suprise me, it's not a lot of money these days if the big boys wanted to have a bit of an interest. A million to a billionaire is only like a tenner to someone with 10k in the bank, pocket change.
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johnsheppard
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:43 am
Those amounts don't seem unusual for this type of market.

Imo the only way to fool a market like this would be to actually start a run then hope it gains some momentum on the back of it being noticed, and hope it goes a few ticks past where you took it. Sticking up a few offers for a couple of hundred grand isn't going to fool anyone, it's money actually being taken that might spark a signal. Even a couple of million on offer wouldn't suprise me, it's not a lot of money these days if the big boys wanted to have a bit of an interest. A million to a billionaire is only like a tenner to someone with 10k in the bank, pocket change.
Thanks Shaun, true, I think you'd be right it'd be hard to fool this market.

One thing that made me think it was spoof was last week some time I saw $6000 or so in out in out...the other thing was that there's so much sitting there within a few ticks (and on one side), then not very much further out....but I suppose I still have lots to learn...

Trump bounced off 3.00, 48 hours ago and Biden still hovered around 1.7, has been for a week or so now I think if my memory works....
Anbell
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johnsheppard wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:37 am
Trump bounced off 3.00, 48 hours ago and Biden still hovered around 1.7, has been for a week or so now I think if my memory works....
He's only 1.1 to be the nominee. I wanted to lay him, but that's a rich price.
eightbo
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@john ppl place their orders in lots of ways for example often big orders are trying to find a balance between getting matched at best possible price and not scaring market which can involve lots of order pulling and rentry and seem like spoofing when it's not. Average bet size for market can be a helpful indicator and in this case looks extremely normal
rik
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I layed Trump, probably back him on election night, difficult to see a big turnaround for him lets see
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johnsheppard
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What I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?

For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)

Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...

Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...

...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?

People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive? :)
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gazuty
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johnsheppard wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:53 am
What I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?

For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)

Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...

Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...

...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?

People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive? :)
Well Kayne just announced a presidential run and (bizarely in my opinion) he has already been backed down to 80/85. I just took out a big chunky lay at 85.
Capture.PNG

IMHO this helps Trump (to the extent it takes African American votes from Biden).
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Derek27
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gazuty wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:06 am
johnsheppard wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:53 am
What I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?

For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)

Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...

Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...

...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?

People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive? :)
Well Kayne just announced a presidential run and (bizarely in my opinion) he has already been backed down to 80/85. I just took out a big chunky lay at 85.

Capture.PNG


IMHO this helps Trump (to the extent it takes African American votes from Biden).
I thought he was bankrupt or heavily in debt, which wouldn't enhance his chances of being trusted with the American economy!
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gazuty
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:47 am
I thought he was bankrupt or heavily in debt, which wouldn't enhance his chances of being trusted with the American economy!
Maybe. Forbes pegs his net worth at a lazy billion. It’s the sort of poverty we would all like to endure.

Hard to see how he gets to 270.
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jimibt
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someone took my thoughts and articulated them: https://londondaily.com/british-writer- ... -i-ve-read

literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
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Black Ice
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Brilliant take-down Jimbit....thanks for sharing! :D :lol:
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johnsheppard
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jimibt wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:16 am
someone took my thoughts and articulated them: https://londondaily.com/british-writer- ... -i-ve-read

literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
Well, depending on the demographics of people gambling on Betfair, wouldn't that make for Trump being a good value back?
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gazuty
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Kanye back out to 130.
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