US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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Trump seems to be good at entirely ignoring a question and changing subject (like the 500 missing parents) but anyone with half a brain can see right through that, it's just a question of how many Americans have half a brain. ;)

As for Biden, I'm not doubting is mental capacity but if he's struggling to communicate and get the right words out (at one point I think he gave up trying to pronounce a place), unless he's always been like that (can barely remember him speaking as vice-president) it's only going to get worse over a four-year period.
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Naffman
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Biden is back on the campaign trail...in Delaware :lol:

Trump is back in Florida for 2 rallies
Trader Pat
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:42 am
Quite amazed to see Biden still firming, even a couple of Dem internal polls came out (v. biased like R internals are) from PA and MI which show a major tightening from a couple of weeks ago

'Polls' from the debate also showed Trump did well
You're right, the polls in the battleground states are tightening and they'll probably be even tighter come election day. But Trump's biggest problem is the polls are close in battleground states he won comfortably in 2016 and also there are less undecided voters at this stage of the race than 4 years ago which swung it in Trump's favour at the end and made the pollsters look silly.

Trump has to hold on to most of the battlegrounds he won in 2016 to win reelection, Biden only has to turn a few of them blue. If Biden was to win Florida it would make it almost impossible for Trump to get the 270 he needs, so even if they were to evenly split the battleground states it wouldn't be enough for Trump.

Worth remembering as well that even with all the states Trump won in 2016 he still only barely won the election.
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:42 am
Quite amazed to see Biden still firming, even a couple of Dem internal polls came out (v. biased like R internals are) from PA and MI which show a major tightening from a couple of weeks ago

'Polls' from the debate also showed Trump did well
The betting seems to disagree with the polls. After Trump's couldn't care less attitude about children being torn away from their parents and a partial denial of it, I'd be surprised if some voters weren't put off.
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Naffman
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:58 pm
Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:42 am
Quite amazed to see Biden still firming, even a couple of Dem internal polls came out (v. biased like R internals are) from PA and MI which show a major tightening from a couple of weeks ago

'Polls' from the debate also showed Trump did well
You're right, the polls in the battleground states are tightening and they'll probably be even tighter come election day. But Trump's biggest problem is the polls are close in battleground states he won comfortably in 2016 and also there are less undecided voters at this stage of the race than 4 years ago which swung it in Trump's favour at the end and made the pollsters look silly.

Trump has to hold on to most of the battlegrounds he won in 2016 to win reelection, Biden only has to turn a few of them blue. If Biden was to win Florida it would make it almost impossible for Trump to get the 270 he needs, so even if they were to evenly split the battleground states it wouldn't be enough for Trump.

Worth remembering as well that even with all the states Trump won in 2016 he still only barely won the election.
Yes a Republican has no chance without Florida...I know you don't like Rasmussen but an hour ago they put Trump up 4pts there.

Those battleground states he's added a lot of registered voters since 2016 compared to the democrats, especially this year where I think the Dems stopped going door to door due to covid...so I think he wins them by bigger margins which he has to really as they were very slim last time.

Texas and Georgia are key ones too, polls show a tie but I still reckon he holds them.
Trader Pat
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:32 pm
Yes a Republican has no chance without Florida...I know you don't like Rasmussen but an hour ago they put Trump up 4pts there.

Those battleground states he's added a lot of registered voters since 2016 compared to the democrats, especially this year where I think the Dems stopped going door to door due to covid...so I think he wins them by bigger margins which he has to really as they were very slim last time.

Texas and Georgia are key ones too, polls show a tie but I still reckon he holds them.
Yeah he seems to be winning in the number of registered voters he's added, be interesting to see how much difference that makes.

He should hold onto Texas and Georgia but according to the betting market its not a lock. 1.36 for Texas and 1.62 for Georgia. Hard to imagine a democrat winning Texas though, the last time it happened was 1976.

Whatever happens it will be a fascinating watch, I'll have beer and popcorn at the ready!
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Naffman
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:55 pm
Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:32 pm
Yes a Republican has no chance without Florida...I know you don't like Rasmussen but an hour ago they put Trump up 4pts there.

Those battleground states he's added a lot of registered voters since 2016 compared to the democrats, especially this year where I think the Dems stopped going door to door due to covid...so I think he wins them by bigger margins which he has to really as they were very slim last time.

Texas and Georgia are key ones too, polls show a tie but I still reckon he holds them.
Yeah he seems to be winning in the number of registered voters he's added, be interesting to see how much difference that makes.

He should hold onto Texas and Georgia but according to the betting market its not a lock. 1.36 for Texas and 1.62 for Georgia. Hard to imagine a democrat winning Texas though, the last time it happened was 1976.

Whatever happens it will be a fascinating watch, I'll have beer and popcorn at the ready!
I agree, I just want to know if I've been barking up the wrong tree or not :lol:
Trader Pat
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:24 pm
I agree, I just want to know if I've been barking up the wrong tree or not :lol:
The way this election is going you could be right and wrong!

One or the other could be projected the winner on election night only for it to be turned over a few days later when all the mail in ballots are counted! :D
Emmson
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The last 30 mins there has been plenty of activity in the market and lots of hefty backing and laying going on.

I would be very surprised if Yanks and their $ aren't involved in this market somehow.
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Derek27
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I'm only half-listening to Sky News but I heard Trump has the full support of the leftovers of the loonie Moonies. :lol:
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Derek27
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:01 pm
Conspiracies' everywhere! :D

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... n=sharebar
The crease around her jaw when she smiles in both photos looks pretty unmistakable to me!
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jamesedwards
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It's clearly her.

Getting seriously worried about the amount of conspiracy crap floating around social media now. It's getting stoked by the gutter media too as it's driving them clicks.

The world is getting more depressing day by day.
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