US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
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Euler
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jameegray1 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:39 pm
It's clearly her.

Getting seriously worried about the amount of conspiracy crap floating around social media now. It's getting stoked by the gutter media too as it's driving them clicks.

The world is getting more depressing day by day.
I agree, so much total garbage out there on a daily basis being stoked up by people looking for attention for one reason or another and people seem to fall for it!

People seem to have forgotten how to live and get on.
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Naffman
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A couple of days and it will have surpassed the turnover from the 2016 election - think it will hold the record for being the biggest market ever for a long time
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Euler
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:08 am
A couple of days and it will have surpassed the turnover from the 2016 election - think it will hold the record for being the biggest market ever for a long time
Y, not far short and if there are any reversals on the night then it will blow away the previous total. It's curious how it's stuck in a range though.
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megarain
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Trump 3.0

Biden 1.5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

They project Biden wins 87/100 times, which makes 1.5 decent value.

As a Pro Gambler, I think u have to back Biden at this price - with whatever portion of Kelly u use.
Trader Pat
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megarain wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:53 am
Trump 3.0

Biden 1.5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

They project Biden wins 87/100 times, which makes 1.5 decent value.

As a Pro Gambler, I think u have to back Biden at this price - with whatever portion of Kelly u use.
Agreed that price is starting to look good, people seem to be willfully ignorant on how the Electoral College works.

Biden has more paths to victory than the Donald, if Trump loses Florida or Georgia its game over and at the minute they're both toss ups.

I think there's value to be had in the Electoral College votes market. I've moved some of my comedy green on Trump in the outright market to the Trump 150-179, 180-209 & 210-239 markets.
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Naffman
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Rasmussen today must be the first poll in a long time to have Trump ahead (48-47) in the popular vote

Also heard Biden has called a lid on all in-person rallies, quite amazing.
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Naffman
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If you want to look at the early data numbers per state then check out - electproject - problem is a lot of states don't differentiate between mail in and early voting as well as party registration but the swing states that do are Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.

Democrats usually vote earlier but I imagine a lot of Republicans will be voting in-person (not by mail) earlier too due to covid and the seemingly huge lines.
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Naffman
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Texas early voting through the roof, Paul Motty wanking into his sock thinking that's a Dem win because of the turnout yet Trump got the most Texan votes in 2016 of any candidate ever so yeah ok.

Florida daily early voting numbers are out, Dems were out voting Republicans by 350,000 yesterday, now it's only 300,000 and with a week left Biden looks screwed imo unless he can get the independent vote.
Archery1969
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I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
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Derek27
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Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm
I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
When Sky News reported that Amy has been confirmed, I thought they were going to say "with Covid-19". :)

She was at the super-spreader event so she's lucky to have avoided it.
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