If Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in JanChrisF wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:19 amThe Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.
US Presidential Election 2020
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When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 amThis is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.
https://www.270towin.com/
'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.
Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
...but all bets will be voided if he dies.Naffman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:09 amIf Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in JanChrisF wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:19 amThe Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.
If Biden becomes president, Harry Dunn's parents will step up calls for justice. And I bet Prince Andrew's rooting for another Trump term.
The US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 amWhen you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 amThis is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.
https://www.270towin.com/
'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.
Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
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That's the problem its too complex.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:33 pmThe US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 amWhen you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 amThis is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.
https://www.270towin.com/
'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.
Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
I think splitting the Electoral College votes would be a much fairer way of doing it, rather than giving 100% of the votes to whatever candidate wins. At least people on both sides would know that your vote really does count towards something.
There's also a movement to abolish the Electoral College but only 15 states have signed up to it, think it needs a simple majority but won't happen anytime soon.
Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
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I think the ghost of 2016 is haunting everyone, nobody wants to look dumb again by predicting a blow out for Biden. If the pollsters hadn't got it so wrong 4 years ago then Biden would be trading much lower.Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 amRemember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
Also the polls seem to be tightening so that will probably continue right up to election day and might bring Trump's price in.
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I think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
Not getting involved in the market but I hope you're right and make a fortune out of it.Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 amRemember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
Trump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".Trader Pat wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pmI think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!
Take it you aren't a fanDerek27 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:23 pmTrump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".Trader Pat wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pmI think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!