US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Naffman
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Will have to watch the full Trump CNN Town Hall later but having watched some clips I now give Biden a 90% chance of beating Trump, he’s not going to drop the ‘election was rigged, J6 folk are nice people, I’m being targeted’ narrative, he’s DOA if he wins the nomination
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jamesedwards
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Naffman wrote: ↑
Thu May 11, 2023 9:55 am
 Will have to watch the full Trump CNN Town Hall later but having watched some clips I now give Biden a 90% chance of beating Trump, he’s not going to drop the ‘election was rigged, J6 folk are nice people, I’m being targeted’ narrative, he’s DOA if he wins the nomination
It's very easy for Trump supporters to follow the 'witch-hunt' narrative. It will likely make the turn-out for Trump supporters significantly higher than Biden leaving the result vote closer than public opinion might otherwise suggest.

Based on markets today, Biden would only be very slightly favourite in a Biden vs Trump head-to-head:
> Biden is 2.9 to be next president and 1.31 nominee, equalling a theoretical 2.21 to win if nominee.
> Trump is 3.8 to be next president and 1.63 nominee, equalling a theoretical 2.33 to win if nominee.
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Derek27
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A common response from Trump arse-lickers is that everybody makes mistakes. I just wonder how they'd react if their own daughters got sexually abused. :roll:
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greenmark
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Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters that he does not believe Trump stands a chance in a November setting but added he didn’t think the verdict would move voters.

“I don’t think it changes anybody’s minds, one way or the other. … I think people who support President Trump, support President Trump. People who don’t support President Trump, don’t support him, and I don’t think this will have any impact,” Cornyn said.

That the sigificance of the sexual abuse verdict. He has also said no-one wins an election by their supporters alone. Thats true I think. Trump needs a more than his fans and he's looking more anally retentive about 2020 etc by the day.
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Derek27
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Orange Face says he could end the war in Ukraine diplomatically in 24 hours. He also thinks he won the last election and injecting Covid patients with bleach is a good idea. :)
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Naffman
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Jack Smith would've been rubbing his hands listening to some of those Trump remarks last night especially regarding the documents.
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Derek27
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Part of Trump's Mexico wall is just one foot high. :lol:
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Archery1969
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The USA debt ceiling is about to be shattered and the Republicans will not approve it being raised.

What does that mean, things in the UK are about to get even more seriously bad.
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Naffman
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Trump and DeSantis both had events in Iowa yesterday, Trump cancelled because of a tornado warning (more than likely cos barely anybody showed up) so DeSantis got all the attention, I believed DeSantis would win the FITN Iowa Caucus before yesterday but I would make him heavy odds on to now
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Derek27
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Trump back in court over 30+ charges. Warned by the judge not to attack witnesses or disclose the content of witness statements on social media, or he will face the full force of the law. :D
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Naffman
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Reports are that a Jack Smith indictment is not very far away now, possibly days.

DeSantis will announce a run tomorrow with Elon Musk, as much as I hate Musk it is a smart move, I remember seeing Musk’s favourabilty among Republican voters equals that of Tucker Carlson.
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Naffman
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Trump 1.58 DeSantis 3.8

DeSantis will be favourite in 2 months I reckon
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Derek27
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What a disaster for Ron. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Derek27
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If you watch Sky News you can be forgiven for thinking most Americans are deranged lunatics, but I'm beginning to feel Americans with moderate or intelligent views just aren't newsworthy. :lol:
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Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote: ↑
Thu May 25, 2023 12:28 am
 If you watch Sky News you can be forgiven for thinking most Americans are deranged lunatics, but I'm beginning to feel Americans with moderate or intelligent views just aren't newsworthy. :lol:
The latest stats show that around 68 million Americans leave high school or college with no formal education qualifications. That’s more than the total population of the UK.

When I tell the story of the waitress I met in a diner once who didn’t know where England was most people think I am joking. I’m not.

I don’t know but I imagine a large majority of that 68 million probably have guns.
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