US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Trader Pat
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neilb wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 1:55 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 1:24 pm
Can't see that happening even if he was found guilty of criminal behaviour.

He'd just throw somebody else under the bus and deny all knowledge.
I think if it goes anywhere there'll be quite a queue waiting to throw each other under the bus. :lol:
Yep, you would need a very big bus! :D
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Naffman
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Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 1:13 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 3:27 am
Trump company now under criminal investigation. :D
If Trump was found criminally liable that would be fun to watch and good television :D

But looking at it from a what's good for American politics, and a trading perspective it would be bad. I'd like to see him run so he can lose out in the Republican primary, that would quieten the loons if he didn't win the nomination from his own party. And also him running would push out the price of De Santis who is probably the most 'impressive candidate' (I use that term lightly)!
Trump is well ahead in the primary polls if he does decide to run, I can't see it as surely someone has got to be telling him you've got no chance at the presidency (now I say that it seems very unlikely someone is) :lol:

Meanwhile DeSantis is on track to outperform Jeb Bush's governors victory back in 2002 when his brother was at the peak of his powers. He is polling strong with college grads and minorities but Biden is also polling well, Harrid on the other hand...
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Naffman wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 2:32 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 1:13 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 3:27 am
Trump company now under criminal investigation. :D
If Trump was found criminally liable that would be fun to watch and good television :D

But looking at it from a what's good for American politics, and a trading perspective it would be bad. I'd like to see him run so he can lose out in the Republican primary, that would quieten the loons if he didn't win the nomination from his own party. And also him running would push out the price of De Santis who is probably the most 'impressive candidate' (I use that term lightly)!
Trump is well ahead in the primary polls if he does decide to run, I can't see it as surely someone has got to be telling him you've got no chance at the presidency (now I say that it seems very unlikely someone is) :lol:

Meanwhile DeSantis is on track to outperform Jeb Bush's governors victory back in 2002 when his brother was at the peak of his powers. He is polling strong with college grads and minorities but Biden is also polling well, Harrid on the other hand...
Yeah De Santis has a lot of support within the party, it would be fascinating to see him take on Trump in the primaries.
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 2:32 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 1:13 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 3:27 am
Trump company now under criminal investigation. :D
If Trump was found criminally liable that would be fun to watch and good television :D

But looking at it from a what's good for American politics, and a trading perspective it would be bad. I'd like to see him run so he can lose out in the Republican primary, that would quieten the loons if he didn't win the nomination from his own party. And also him running would push out the price of De Santis who is probably the most 'impressive candidate' (I use that term lightly)!
Trump is well ahead in the primary polls if he does decide to run, I can't see it as surely someone has got to be telling him you've got no chance at the presidency (now I say that it seems very unlikely someone is) :lol:

Meanwhile DeSantis is on track to outperform Jeb Bush's governors victory back in 2002 when his brother was at the peak of his powers. He is polling strong with college grads and minorities but Biden is also polling well, Harrid on the other hand...
He doesn't take any notice of what people tell him. Nothing the American voters do would surprise me. He could even win the Nobel Peace Prize!
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Naffman
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2024 20.5.21 pres. poll.png
Pretty much shows what I'm seeing, Trump and Cruz have too many haters to win whereas DeSantis doing a lot better with Independents
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Naffman
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Anybody know how the best person to get in touch with to add markets, quite amazing considering how big Politics has grown that they don't have some nearby markets
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Derek27
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Derek27
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Naffman
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I do think Biden is most likely going to run again in 2024, think the public have realised the Dems won't want Biden to step aside for Harris so the only way she'll take over is if Biden dies.

Trump looking low though now isn't he, guess its priced in that if he runs he'll get the nomination. The midterms will be good for those looking for longshots.
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:31 am
I do think Biden is most likely going to run again in 2024, think the public have realised the Dems won't want Biden to step aside for Harris so the only way she'll take over is if Biden dies.

Trump looking low though now isn't he, guess its priced in that if he runs he'll get the nomination. The midterms will be good for those looking for longshots.
Biden's really made an arse of himself over the withdrawal and his damage limitation has a lot to be desired.
Archery1969
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If information is correct then the CIA and Military gave the best option of doing the withdrawl from Bagram Airbase which is about 1 hour from Kabul. It would have been very easy to take back and hold due to demographics for the area. Pretty obvious really as they held it for 20 years.But some muppert told them to leave in the dead of night and has now caused a disaster elsewhere.

I think this is going to haunt Biden and his administration for years. Afghanisatin will just become a launch pad for global terrorism for decades to come.
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Naffman
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Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:18 pm
If information is correct then the CIA and Military gave the best option of doing the withdrawl from Bagram Airbase which is about 1 hour from Kabul. It would have been very easy to take back and hold due to demographics for the area. Pretty obvious really as they held it for 20 years.But some muppert told them to leave in the dead of night and has now caused a disaster elsewhere.

I think this is going to haunt Biden and his administration for years. Afghanisatin will just become a launch pad for global terrorism for decades to come.
It will haunt him and if there is a terrorist attack anywhere (especially on US soil) it will come back to him but he's still got 85-90% of democratic support, if he wants a second term he'll be the candidate.
greenmark
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Why attack refugees (as has happened at Kabul airport)? They want to leave, so let them and fight with the Taliban for control of Afghanistan.
It wouldn't surprise me if The Taliban ask for military support from US, China, Russia, who knows?
The only plus of the pull out is all these nasty people comme out oof the woodwork and make themselves visible. Like allowing IS to flourish in Iraq and attract nutters from around the world - round 'em up, put 'em in a field and bomb that b******s.
Trader Pat
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greenmark wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:05 pm
Why attack refugees (as has happened at Kabul airport)? They want to leave, so let them and fight with the Taliban for control of Afghanistan.
It wouldn't surprise me if The Taliban ask for military support from US, China, Russia, who knows?
The only plus of the pull out is all these nasty people comme out oof the woodwork and make themselves visible. Like allowing IS to flourish in Iraq and attract nutters from around the world - round 'em up, put 'em in a field and bomb that b******s.
What a horrible shit-show. Got to wonder what happens when all the foreign troops leave. Will the Taliban even be in charge or will it be a civil war between them and IS? Could end up being another Yemen with the world not giving a toss.

Makes you realise how lucky you are not to have been born in a country like that.
greenmark
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Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:24 pm
greenmark wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:05 pm
Why attack refugees (as has happened at Kabul airport)? They want to leave, so let them and fight with the Taliban for control of Afghanistan.
It wouldn't surprise me if The Taliban ask for military support from US, China, Russia, who knows?
The only plus of the pull out is all these nasty people comme out oof the woodwork and make themselves visible. Like allowing IS to flourish in Iraq and attract nutters from around the world - round 'em up, put 'em in a field and bomb that b******s.
What a horrible shit-show. Got to wonder what happens when all the foreign troops leave. Will the Taliban even be in charge or will it be a civil war between them and IS? Could end up being another Yemen with the world not giving a toss.

Makes you realise how lucky you are not to have been born in a country like that.
In the context of the OP, Biden is going to have to spin this big-time. The US ain't even out and things are deteriorating.
Suddenly walking away after decades of meddling around the world protecting US interests looks a bit (a lot?) hypocritical.
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