US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Naffman
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Trump indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury
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Naffman
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Lots of back money on Trump waiting to be matched, I feel its one guy as they've been at it for months, at least it'll hold the price down for a fair while.
Archery1969
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He being arrested and charged next week.
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Naffman
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Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:41 pm
He being arrested and charged next week.
Feel like the mugshot is going to be a big deal, it'll be on every station and every newspaper in the country
Archery1969
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:53 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:41 pm
He being arrested and charged next week.
Feel like the mugshot is going to be a big deal, it'll be on every station and every newspaper in the country
I hope the authorities are prepared for some gun fanatics.
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Naffman
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Seen a lot of MAGA talk that this all but secures the GOP nomination for Trump so wouldn't be surprised to his price trade shorter in the coming days
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jamesedwards
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:41 pm
Trump indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury
Can't believe it. They're virtually handing him the presidency back. :shock:
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Naffman
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jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:46 am
Naffman wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:41 pm
Trump indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury
Can't believe it. They're virtually handing him the presidency back. :shock:
I don't think so, he's got more indictments in the next couple of months imo, that's why he's been fundraising so hard. He'll have nothing left to actually campaign with if he even gets that far.
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jamesedwards
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:07 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:46 am
Naffman wrote:
Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:41 pm
Trump indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury
Can't believe it. They're virtually handing him the presidency back. :shock:
I don't think so, he's got more indictments in the next couple of months imo, that's why he's been fundraising so hard. He'll have nothing left to actually campaign with if he even gets that far.
Every single Trump fan will show up on polling day to vote. Perhaps they are banking on a deal where he gets off in return for not running?
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Naffman
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jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:14 am
Naffman wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:07 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:46 am


Can't believe it. They're virtually handing him the presidency back. :shock:
I don't think so, he's got more indictments in the next couple of months imo, that's why he's been fundraising so hard. He'll have nothing left to actually campaign with if he even gets that far.
Every single Trump fan will show up on polling day to vote. Perhaps they are banking on a deal where he gets off in return for not running?
DeSantis has better favourables among GOP voters, but if he was out the picture then Trump would be very very difficult to beat.

Yeah, top Republicans will be crossing everything that a deal like that could be made, I'm not sure what the endgame is but I know it's going to get a lot worse for him in the coming months.
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Naffman
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Trump’s price back to where it was this morning, it’s going to take something big to take that price above 2.0 again as there’s £65k waiting to back him.
Archery1969
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Even if Trump is found guilty its very unlikely he will do jail/prison time. The secret service have to protect the current and former presidents for life. How that would work in Jail has not been thought about. Not saying it couldn't happen but would be a complete nightmare from a security point of view. I guess you could put him in solitary confinement 24/7 with Secret service outside the door or watching remotely via CCTV. It would also be a first in US history. More likely is house arrest and large fine. This could all be plea bargained away if he agrees not to run for president ever again.

What could be more worrying for the authorities is that a large number of Trump supports, armed, could cause untold deaths. You also need to factor in that the Republicans could block everything coming from the Senate as happened a few years back when government staff didn't get paid and were basically left in no mans land. Effectively, government stopped working. Not something you want happening with Russia/China in a party mood.

Obviously, Judges wont care about all this and will just apply the law. Although, Trump appointed two to the supreme court so will be intersesting to see what happens if it all ends up there. Again, not saying they maybe bias but I not sure they will agree with a former president being held in a jail/prison regardless of what laws have been broken.

And dont forget if/when a Republican becomes president again he/she will 100% have Trump set free and pardoned.

There is allot rethoric on Telegram channels used by Trump supporters stating "This is going to be the ultimate backfire’, ‘we’re ready when you are, Mr President’".
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Naffman
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Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:21 pm
Even if Trump is found guilty its very unlikely he will do jail/prison time. The secret service have to protect the current and former presidents for life. How that would work in Jail has not been thought about. Not saying it couldn't happen but would be a complete nightmare from a security point of view. I guess you could put him in solitary confinement 24/7 with Secret service outside the door or watching remotely via CCTV. It would also be a first in US history. More likely is house arrest and large fine. This could all be plea bargained away if he agrees not to run for president ever again.

What could be more worrying for the authorities is that a large number of Trump supports, armed, could cause untold deaths. You also need to factor in that the Republicans could block everything coming from the Senate as happened a few years back when government staff didn't get paid and were basically left in no mans land. Effectively, government stopped working. Not something you want happening with Russia/China in a party mood.

Obviously, Judges wont care about all this and will just apply the law. Although, Trump appointed two to the supreme court so will be intersesting to see what happens if it all ends up there. Again, not saying they maybe bias but I not sure they will agree with a former president being held in a jail/prison regardless of what laws have been broken.

And dont forget if/when a Republican becomes president again he/she will 100% have Trump set free and pardoned.

There is allot rethoric on Telegram channels used by Trump supporters stating "This is going to be the ultimate backfire’, ‘we’re ready when you are, Mr President’".
Didn't the French President Sarkozy go to prison? I'd imagine he has secret service agents too.

I've heard as because it's a local case, a President cannot pardon him, they can if it were a federal case.

They have to say that though don't they, if you go on Twitter you'd think DeSantis is hated by half of Republicans...it's the old conservative GOP voter in a small town in Iowa you have to think of, what's he thinking...
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Naffman
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Also, just watched an interview with Michael Cohen's lawyer and it sounds like there's a lot more in the charges than just the hush money payment...
Archery1969
Posts: 3217
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Naffman wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:10 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:21 pm
Even if Trump is found guilty its very unlikely he will do jail/prison time. The secret service have to protect the current and former presidents for life. How that would work in Jail has not been thought about. Not saying it couldn't happen but would be a complete nightmare from a security point of view. I guess you could put him in solitary confinement 24/7 with Secret service outside the door or watching remotely via CCTV. It would also be a first in US history. More likely is house arrest and large fine. This could all be plea bargained away if he agrees not to run for president ever again.

What could be more worrying for the authorities is that a large number of Trump supports, armed, could cause untold deaths. You also need to factor in that the Republicans could block everything coming from the Senate as happened a few years back when government staff didn't get paid and were basically left in no mans land. Effectively, government stopped working. Not something you want happening with Russia/China in a party mood.

Obviously, Judges wont care about all this and will just apply the law. Although, Trump appointed two to the supreme court so will be intersesting to see what happens if it all ends up there. Again, not saying they maybe bias but I not sure they will agree with a former president being held in a jail/prison regardless of what laws have been broken.

And dont forget if/when a Republican becomes president again he/she will 100% have Trump set free and pardoned.

There is allot rethoric on Telegram channels used by Trump supporters stating "This is going to be the ultimate backfire’, ‘we’re ready when you are, Mr President’".
Didn't the French President Sarkozy go to prison? I'd imagine he has secret service agents too.

I've heard as because it's a local case, a President cannot pardon him, they can if it were a federal case.

They have to say that though don't they, if you go on Twitter you'd think DeSantis is hated by half of Republicans...it's the old conservative GOP voter in a small town in Iowa you have to think of, what's he thinking...
France doesn't have the same rules for ex presidents.

Sarkozy was sentended to 3 years in prison, suspended for 2 and has appealed the original sentence meaning he stays free until a higher court rules otherwise. Furthermore a court sentenced him to 1 year in prison which he served at home wearing an eletronic tag.
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