US Presidential Election 2024

[Derek27]

Anniversary of the Capitol Hill riots. Biden using the opportunity to attack his predecessor, who along with his offspring have been summoned to give evidence in a fraud investigation.

[greenmark]

Anniversary of the Capitol Hill riots. Biden using the opportunity to attack his predecessor, who along with his offspring have been summoned to give evidence in a fraud investigation.

The Big Wheels in Republicanism have a decision to make. Trump or head a little left and less persona-orientated. I know which way I'd go. But I confess I am anti-trump.

[Trader Pat]

Worst part for me about this being the 1 year anniversary of Jan 6th is you can't escape it when you turn on tv, whatever the channel.

I already have positions in the 2024 election market so I'm generally keeping up to date with what's going on in the States but for the most part it doesn't involve watching the news or listening to a bunch of talking heads. Today isn't going to effect the market one way or the other, it will just be grandstanding and speechmaking on one side and denial and lunacy on the other.

When election season kicks off proper I'll start to pay more attention to US politics but until then I frankly couldn't give less of a toss.

[Euler]

I think it will be almost impossible for anything to beat the 2020 campaign!

What an incredible market.

[Derek27]

I think it will be almost impossible for anything to beat the 2020 campaign!

What an incredible market.

If Trump runs, anything could happen. I've noticed the market's no longer called "next president" but "election winner". I suspect Betfair will have learned from their mistakes.

[Trader Pat]

I think it will be almost impossible for anything to beat the 2020 campaign!

What an incredible market.

If Trump runs, anything could happen. I've noticed the market's no longer called "next president" but "election winner". I suspect Betfair will have learned from their mistakes.

I don't think there'll be many surprises in the 2024 market.

Republicans almost nailed on to win back control of the house in the midterms. If / when that happens the house investigations will all go away, Trump will announce his candidacy, win the Republican nomination and probably stroll to the presidency. Only other outcome I see is for whatever reason Trump doesn't run, then De Santis becomes president. Democrats have nobody whose electable imo.

[Derek27]

I think it will be almost impossible for anything to beat the 2020 campaign!

What an incredible market.

If Trump runs, anything could happen. I've noticed the market's no longer called "next president" but "election winner". I suspect Betfair will have learned from their mistakes.

I don't think there'll be many surprises in the 2024 market.

Republicans almost nailed on to win back control of the house in the midterms. If / when that happens the house investigations will all go away, Trump will announce his candidacy, win the Republican nomination and probably stroll to the presidency. Only other outcome I see is for whatever reason Trump doesn't run, then De Santis becomes president. Democrats have nobody whose electable imo.

An assassination attempt on Trump, Biden being misreported to have passed away, Trump's fraud trial coming to a conclusion weeks before the election where he's facing 4 years in prison, topped with Trump refusing to accept defeat, it could be just as chaotic.

[Trader Pat]

If Trump runs, anything could happen. I've noticed the market's no longer called "next president" but "election winner". I suspect Betfair will have learned from their mistakes.

I don't think there'll be many surprises in the 2024 market.

Republicans almost nailed on to win back control of the house in the midterms. If / when that happens the house investigations will all go away, Trump will announce his candidacy, win the Republican nomination and probably stroll to the presidency. Only other outcome I see is for whatever reason Trump doesn't run, then De Santis becomes president. Democrats have nobody whose electable imo.

An assassination attempt on Trump, Biden being misreported to have passed away, Trump's fraud trial coming to a conclusion weeks before the election where he's facing 4 years in prison, topped with Trump refusing to accept defeat, it could be just as chaotic.

There'll be lots of side shows and headlines but I don't think it will have a bearing on the market.

The only hope the Dems have is if the current investigations wrap up quickly and find Trump criminally liable for something that DQ's him from running for office. Then some skeleton will have to come out of De Santis's past which derails his campaign. Can't see either happening to be honest.

It is US politics I suppose so who knows what will happen next

[Jimmy2Bigg]

Back in 1982, at one of the cold war peaks, I was 7 years old and my dad got a job working in New York. So we moved from the UK for about 4 years to a beautiful lakeside community an hour outside the city. My "formative years". Many of my dearest friends are still those I grew up with in those years. It was a cookie cutter, stereotype American experience. Yellow school buses, summer camp, little league - imagine the Goonies without the actual movie plot!

Intertwined with all that was an amazing love of their own country. I remember getting in trouble at Boy Scouts when, during the pledge to the Flag, I genuinely simply poked my tongue out to wet my dry lips (was a cold evening) and got accused of a foreigner sticking his tongue out at the Flag!!!! Never did I think I'd see the day when Americans, mainly young, burn their own Flag and hate their own country.

Their reasoning is all bs.... we were educated on America's ills, even in Elementary School. We learned about slavery, civil rights movements... all the bad things that happened. But we did so from a position of balance and a general recognition that there was a lot more positive than negative to the country.

Trump as an individual is an utter bell-end. But when you look at the recent evidence of the polarisation of the country, you discover that the left have lurched far more to the extreme left than the right have to the extreme right. That is why more moderate Americans, when presented with a choice of Hilary led socialism vs Trump led conservative/America first-ism, we wound up with an idiot for President - a very dumbed down and uncouth version of Reagan.

In '24, they will have the same choice. They could well elect Trump. They would almost certainly elect DeSantis. But either way, I fear the last decade has been the beginning of the end for America.

[jimibt]

Back in 1982, at one of the cold war peaks, I was 7 years old and my dad got a job working in New York. So we moved from the UK for about 4 years to a beautiful lakeside community an hour outside the city. My "formative years". Many of my dearest friends are still those I grew up with in those years. It was a cookie cutter, stereotype American experience. Yellow school buses, summer camp, little league - imagine the Goonies without the actual movie plot!

sounds like a great childhood. out of interest, which summer camps did you go to?? my wife spent about 3-4 terms working for Camp America and always returned to Camp Michikamau. We actually ended up spending a month there before we were married and were able to take 3 of our kids too. We rounded that all off by actually getting married in Woodstock during the same visit - happy memories !!

[Derek27]

Is a summer camp a family holiday resort?

[jimibt]

Is a summer camp a family holiday resort?

nope - usually only for the kids. however, due to my (now) wife having worked there for 4 years during the 90's, we managed to swing a month hanging out there. of course, had to pitch in and help with activities, but it was all good. it's a great experience for kids in the US. I guess the long hot summers help tho!!

[Jimmy2Bigg]

It really was. We water-skied on the lake in the summers and in the winters it froze over so thick you could happily walk across it.

The camp wasn't a "chain" type. Just a small local one run at a place called Sycamore Park in Putnam County New York. To Derek, yes, the camps were just for kids. Summer school vacations tend to be a lot longer than the UK. To help parents lots of places have day camps. Adult leaders helped by teenagers, usually around 15 yrs up. Great fun.

[Trader Pat]

This market might start getting interesting over the coming months.

There was a school of thought that De Santis would step aside and let Trump run unopposed for the Republican nomination but they've been trading insults in public recently so it looks like they're warming up for the debates. Amazingly De Santis is even further to the right than Trump! Trump has been encouraging people to get vaccinated and when he revealed he got boosted he was booed! The irony

And on the Dems side HIllary is doing a lot of interviews... I wonder

[gazuty]

And on the Dems side HIllary is doing a lot of interviews... I wonder

Its all fascinating Pat. And we are still a couple of days shy of Biden's first full year.

In most other modern Western democracies Trump wouldn't stand a chance, his prior comments and actions would simply turn off too many people. Yet, and he said himself prior to being elected, he could shoot somone in fifth avenue and it still wouldn't impact his chances.

And in modern US politics a failed candiate like Hilary wouldn't normally be resurrected. Nixon of course came back from defeat against Kennedy to have another shot and so it can happen in the "modern" era, if we say that is post WWII.

What really strikes me is how the older generation in the US still has a grip on politics. McConnell - 79, Pelosi 81, Biden 79, Trump 75.

Hilary is the spring chicken at 74 - but the Clinton's are of course deeply flawed (which of us humans is not I guess).