2022 French Presidential Election

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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LeTiss
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A fascinating political market will happen over the next 12 months......French Presidential Election

The first round will start on 8th April 2022.

However, the fiasco of the vaccines, the impact of a Covid recession, plus weeks of the yellow vest movement could make this a cracking trading market, as France looks angry and unstable!
Whilst, that all points to Le Pen stealing a march, the French political system makes her becoming President very difficult/unlikely

I reckon there could be some value and very nice moves though

I'll endeavour to keep this thread bubbling away
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Macron 1.55 yesterday now 1.79, Valerie Pecresse on the move and is currently Macron's only real danger
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:48 pm
A fascinating political market will happen over the next 12 months......French Presidential Election

The first round will start on 8th April 2022.

However, the fiasco of the vaccines, the impact of a Covid recession, plus weeks of the yellow vest movement could make this a cracking trading market, as France looks angry and unstable!
Whilst, that all points to Le Pen stealing a march, the French political system makes her becoming President very difficult/unlikely

I reckon there could be some value and very nice moves though

I'll endeavour to keep this thread bubbling away
Doesn't France always look angry and unstable? :)

You're right though, should be one of the better political markets
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Kai
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Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:42 pm
Doesn't France always look angry and unstable? :)

You're right though, should be one of the better political markets
It's a tremendous country Derek. Great people. Unbelievable people. It's going to be a tremendous market, yuge market. YUGE.
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marcusessmith84
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Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:14 pm

I would really be surprised if Macron wins the election again. I think that his policy does not help in the development of France, but on the contrary worsens the situation.
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Naffman
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Le Pen has really closed the gap the last couple of weeks, what is amazing is she is not just picking up Zemmour voters but also the left too due to her economic policies.

The market has it about right though but the love keeps coming for Zemmour despite his polls in single figures now
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LeTiss
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£3.2 million matched now

Sunday sees the first round. This should be a pretty good trading market, especially if Le Pen scores very well going into round two
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Naffman
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:32 pm
£3.2 million matched now

Sunday sees the first round. This should be a pretty good trading market, especially if Le Pen scores very well going into round two
Yeah I think everyone will be looking at how the polling compares to the actual results on Sunday, if Le Pen is less than 3pts behind at worst then she’s in with a real shot, momentum is definitely on her side.

Zemmour still somehow 3rd favourite smh
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LeTiss
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Over £500,000 traded on Macron at 1.08 and 1.09

I'm not sure I'd be keeping them as open trades, I'd be greening that now at 1.27
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Naffman
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Macron will be fairly happy with that
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Naffman
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Melenchon said not to give Le Pen a single vote, she was polled to tie with Macron for his voters in the 2nd round, all but over now.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Estimation @IpsosFrance du résultat du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle :

🟠 Macron 28,1%
⚫ Le Pen 23,3%
🔴 Mélenchon 20,1%
🟤 Zemmour 7,2%
🔵 Pécresse 5%
🟢 Jadot 4,4%
⚪ Lassale 3,3%
🔴 Roussel 2,7%
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Naffman
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Ipsos run-off poll 51-49 to Macron, that's close, I imagine when Melenchon voters have listened to his speech a big share will either vote for Macron or not vote at all.
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Naffman
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Le Pen only .8% in front of Melenchon now in the estimates
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Derek27
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Location: UK

France going to the polls today. Surely Sunday voting over here would be a better day than Thursday and encourage turnout, with less people working and more time to spare?
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