So whilst the Tory party is clearly in turmoil, I still have trouble seeing quite where the Lib Dem support is coming from ? The only places I see it is on Twitter, from their own mouths ( talking about the fantastic responses they are getting on the doorstep ) and on Betfair ?
They are clearly out in force. Leafleting and canvassing, though I can’t help but wonder, to what avail? I suppose that is how advertising works. And if you stick your branding and name everywhere, the hope is that it seeps through into peoples sub conscious, and when they go to the polls, they put the x next to the name that is most familiar to them ?
By all accounts, if you ventured onto the high streets of the market towns where this seat is being contested, if you hung around for long enough, a rather gaunt looking young gentleman , either on foot or perhaps a bicycle, will approach you and ask you for 20 pence.
Most people will be thinking, what the hell is he going to do with 20p anyway? Can’t even buy a pack of space raiders anymore. However, I think the rationale behind it, is to go low, and maybe hope for more. A bit like backing a horse in running at 1.2, and if you get matched at evens, then great. Ask for 20 p, if you get it, that’s ok, if you get a quid, bonus. Need to get 50 20ps and then you can get a 10 bag.
Apparently this was a good way to get a tenner in years gone by. However, these days, with internet shopping, Covid restrictions, and the general death of the high street. You would be lucky to even see 50 people, let alone see 50 who are willing to give you 20p.
And this is the problem that I believe the canvassers and pollsters will have too.They too might be aimlessly wandering around town every day, they too may struggle to find 50 people who will give them 20 p / answer their polling questions / agree to go out and vote for them. By all accounts, it must be a very difficult place to campaign.
So with limited time, and limited resources, you would probably have to resort to knocking on doors / leafleting . And over such a large spread out area, it must make it even harder. So you are left with the choice of knocking doors and perhaps getting stuck talking to an old dear for half hour who will forget which party you are even from by the end of the conversation, or just stick a leaflet through and try and get to as many people as possible that way.
The trouble with the leaflets, in my opinion, is that hardly anyone will actually read them. Whilst peoples immunity to covid may be wavering, their immunity to leafleting must be pretty high by now. I imagine the majority just go straight into the bin ( or into the paper recycling bag if the household takes it waste management more seriously ! ).
Lib Dems are clearly throwing everything at this, and I am starting to sense that this result is just as important to them and their future, as it is to Boris and his. If they fail here, they can forget ever being taken seriously as part of the “progressive alliance”again . I would imagine that labour ( after recent events and their recent surge in the polls ) are now kicking themselves for agreeing to stand aside in this. They are after all the countries opposition party, and they didn’t do too badly in the north Shropshire region last time, especially considering that Corbyn would not have been a popular choice in the constituency. To his credit, the labour candidate, without any obvious help nationally, has carried on plugging away and is fighting for votes.
The Lib Dems have put all their resources into this. And I see that, just like others in the constituency, are now also asking people for money ! I came across it a couple of times on Twitter last night ! They aren’t going round town asking for 20 pence, but they are asking online if people will send them 25 quid and donate to the campaign !
Which made me ponder, where has all their budget gone ? Surely leaflets and sign posts can’t be that expensive can they ? I am now starting to wonder, if maybe the Lib Dem campaign budget has been blown by relentlessly backing themselves on the exchanges, and then pointing to the odds as if they show how popular they are , and posting Smarkets graphs as if they are a YouGov poll. Maybe they have taken a leaf out of the El Salvador presidents bitcoin gamble, and have decided to try and spin the campaign budget up by investing it all on themselves ! A large part of the Lib Dem campaign does seem to be based around their betting odds.
It also makes me laugh how the liberal left embrace bookmakers and betting odds when it suits their agenda . I have seen so many comments along the lines “ the bookies know “ “ the odds are never wrong “ “ we are clearly winning here”. With all the gambling review going on, mainly led and called for by those on the left, yet for about 2 weeks solid, they have bombarded their followers timelines with oddschecker screenshots, betfair markets, and various bookmakers odds. Unwittingly shilling and promoting betting, where as next week, when this is all over, they will return to calling for a blanket ban, or no advertising or bookmaker branding to be allowed !
The Lib Dems have also been sending their so called “ big guns “ into north Shropshire on an almost daily basis. Train in, obligatory selfie with the young canvassing team, knock a few doors, 3 hour pub lunch, few more doors, another selfie, post Smarkets screenshot, then back on the train to Guildford or wherever and home in time for newsnight . I obviously jest, I’m sure there is far more to it than that, and they are all working tirelessly !
But the trouble for me, is like the proverbial fallen tree in the woods. If Ed Davey was in Whitchurch, and there was nobody there to see him, was Ed Davey ever really in Whitchurch ?! Well the answer to that, is probably no, unless you decided to log on to Twitter later that evening and see . And even then, I imagine if you said to somebody “ Ed Davey was in Whitchurch today”. They would probably turn round and say “ who is Ed Davey ?! “. I know the labour front bench aren’t exactly political titans, though at least they have some household names amongst them. I still think they would have been better positioned to challenge, though I guess when this seat came up, nobody would have foreseen the importance of it, especially not captain hindsight.
And that includes the Tories too. I am now having serious doubts over their candidate. The original tactic was for him to be very low profile, they seemed to want to keep him hidden away, and just use him where it matters. Perhaps they too never expected this election to take such significance. The thing counting against him, is that he is not local . The other candidates have all been very quick to jump on this, and apparently, it is an issue.
I can exclusively reveal, that ONE (!) lifetime Tory voter, will not be turning out on Thursday. The reason, because the candidate is not from Shropshire. They can’t bring themselves to vote for someone who isn’t local. From what I read, the outgoing Owen Paterson had as many houses as he had jobs, and even his Shropshire home was apparently in the more affluent south of the county. Which, by all accounts, is so awkward to get to , that it would actually be quicker to get to Birmingham anyway !
But apparently it’s a deal breaker, and they are refusing to vote. I think if they had their time again, they may have thought more carefully about their candidate, rather than just go Army guy, tick, Nhs guy , tick. It appears that the local issue is a big one for some people.
And then there is also the problem of Owen Paterson. Owen seems to have left a turd not only in the upstairs bathroom, but in the downstairs toilet too. As there is seemingly an equal amount of voters who have been lost, half because they are appalled by his behaviour and what he did. And the other half, who actually had a lot of respect for him, are appalled by the way he has been treated by the party, and are refusing to vote on those grounds.
I still don’t know what to make of all this. The market is now screaming Lib Dems, and maybe if I was to apply occams razor, with the expected low Tory turn out , potential high left leaning turn out, all the Tory problems, the betting markets, then it should be obvious that they are going to win.
Though I guess I’m blind to it, and have once again failed to read the room! It now seems obvious that the Tory vote is still going to be well down. Though I still can’t see it dropping below 5 figures. Maybe it does though. But if it doesn’t, then I still think the Lib Dems have work to do, I still think they will need all of the lefts vote, and as things stand at present, I’m not totally convinced they get it, and then even if they do, I’m still not totally convinced it will be enough.
I’m just hoping that whilst the Lib Dems have been busy dashing round the various towns and country side, picking up 20 pence pieces, and maybe perhaps the odd quid, that the Tories have been busy operating at a more wholesale level. Going round picking up fivers and tenners, talking to institutions, groups, clubs and places where they know they can get a block of votes out, rather than the odd few.
Apparently, it will be the farmers who decide it. If they stay loyal and vote, they have the resources and numbers to change this. If they don’t, then maybe Tories are in real big trouble. They don’t seem to have given up, and do appear to be fighting it. They are definitely seemingly getting busier. Though I am unsure whether this is tactics, not throwing everything at the campaign until the last week, or panic, maybe having to throw more at it than they first expected due to the events of the last week?
Still no idea. Though can’t wait until Thursday to find out !
Current prices:
Lib Dems… 1.52 / 1.56
Cons…. 2.88/ 2.9
Labour…. 160 / 260
Reform…. 500
Greens…. 1000
North Shropshire by-election
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
There's a market for that. I don't see it myself. 13.0 available.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 4:08 pmI imagine, if the Tories lose then Boris will be summoned by the 1922 committe and gone by xMas.
But that wont really change much as the next general election wont be until 2nd May 2024.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Visible public sentiment has become much easier to read over the last 10 years due to the explosion of social media, and it's obvious that markets appear to be more and more influenced by it. The problem is that social media represents only a portion of the whole demographic. It's used more by the young than the old, and opinion offered more by the left than the right. In my opinion this is likely why we have seen the run of unexpected results in the last few years, eg US elections, UK elections, Brexit etc.
I actually went green on Lib Dem early on, triggered by social media sentiment. But then I took a step back, drilled into the numbers, looked back on recent precedents, and now I'm heavy green on a Conservative hold.
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PapaShango
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm
I only really started looking when it was around 1.55, hadn’t even given it much thought before then to be honest. Then after the reading the article made the mistake of putting a bet on, then been glued to the market ever since. It is interesting though, I get why people are into it. Tv vote betting, politics, long term specials stuff like that. But it’s definitely not for me lol
The trouble is, there isn’t much a data about , and all the info is on Twitter, though there has been quite a few news reports recently and stuff like that too. Felt sorry for some of the people filmed. The people trying to beckon them over from the dark side soon turned very nasty once a resident, often elderly, signalled an intention they might vote Tory. They were instantly vilified and made into a meme and the comments were quite frankly disgusting.
I fear for what are, for now, the good people of north Shropshire. For if they do dare to vote blue on Thursday, then please, whatever you do, do not turn on Twitter !
I’m not putting any more bets on, it’s too close to call, neither result would surprise me to ne honest.
Well , I still can’t have the lid dems ,but I’m just expecting to be wrong now . My extensive polling research ( single phone call !) did suggest that to be fair to the local lid Dem candidate, she had got her local message across, I think there will be many who have said they will, and probably will “vote Helen” without even knowing, or caring that they are voting Lib Dem .
The tories meanwhile will probably be hoping that the 5 day weather forecast, which is apparently never accurate, is accurate.
The trouble is, there isn’t much a data about , and all the info is on Twitter, though there has been quite a few news reports recently and stuff like that too. Felt sorry for some of the people filmed. The people trying to beckon them over from the dark side soon turned very nasty once a resident, often elderly, signalled an intention they might vote Tory. They were instantly vilified and made into a meme and the comments were quite frankly disgusting.
I fear for what are, for now, the good people of north Shropshire. For if they do dare to vote blue on Thursday, then please, whatever you do, do not turn on Twitter !
I’m not putting any more bets on, it’s too close to call, neither result would surprise me to ne honest.
Well , I still can’t have the lid dems ,but I’m just expecting to be wrong now . My extensive polling research ( single phone call !) did suggest that to be fair to the local lid Dem candidate, she had got her local message across, I think there will be many who have said they will, and probably will “vote Helen” without even knowing, or caring that they are voting Lib Dem .
The tories meanwhile will probably be hoping that the 5 day weather forecast, which is apparently never accurate, is accurate.
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Archery1969
- Posts: 3217
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
- Location: Newport
Personally, I think thats worth a punt, things go badly on Thursday/Friday and you could well see Sir Graham Brady popping into No 10 for a chat, when that happens, we all know what comes next.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:12 pmThere's a market for that. I don't see it myself. 13.0 available.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 4:08 pmI imagine, if the Tories lose then Boris will be summoned by the 1922 committe and gone by xMas.
But that wont really change much as the next general election wont be until 2nd May 2024.
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PapaShango
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm
Not long until the vote now, and this market is still keeping me awake at night ! I still can’t get any clarity, and there are still so many conflicting signals.
In order to try and gain a deeper understanding of this market, I went to the expense of hiring a canvasser. I decided to pay them to go on the ground and go into the constituency , try and look for clues, and to maybe knock on a few doors, speak to voters, find out what the issues are on the doorstep. Turns out , the main issue on the doorstep, is the number of leaflets that keep falling on it !
Unfortunately , after they had reported back, there was still very little information to go on. They said the streets were deserted, there was very little going on, and that they only actually managed to speak to one resident who plans to actually go out and vote on Thursday.
However, whilst they didn’t bump into, or speak to many actual voters, there was lots of other canvassers walking around. So they ended up ‘canvassing the canvassers ‘ !
There was now clear evidence of the Lib dem presence. There are quite a few signs in windows, and lots of stake boards now appearing in many gardens too. So I guess if you’re gonna let them stick a big sign in your garden, you’re probably going to go out and vote for them too. There were a few green signs, though nothing for labour or conservatives.
In total my canvasser bumped into a total of 5 different sets of other canvassers. All were from Lib dem .
My canvasser wanted to be part of the ‘progressive alliance’ , though wasnt sure which of the ‘progressive’ parties to vote for. So, in order to gain some clarity about who exactly was ahead, they decided to ask the lib dem canvassers for advice.
When mentioning that internal polling by labour shows them ahead, the lib dem canvassers almost turn red themselves ! “ That’s lies “ “ labour are miles behind and they know it “ . “ labour have no support here “. “ The poll is absolute rubbish “.
So how did they know they were so far ahead ? “Bookies odds “. “ we are the bookies favourites “. “ we have our own internal polling” “ because the responses on the doorstep we have been getting are fantastic”.
So as far as I can tell. The internal polling from Lib Dems , is all based on feedback from the canvassers about their experiences on the doorstep.
Apparently, when asked if he himself had bet , a young Liberal Democrat from London was absolutely beaming when he announced he had £50 ( five zero, FIFTY ! ) on Lib Dems to win. When my canvasser asked should they too put a bet on with the vote “ YES, but the odds aren’t as good now. I got much better odds a few weeks ago” . He obviously got all the value, though has no intention of cashing out. He expects to win, as the “odds have now come right down “.
Another canvasser, after pointing out that Lib Dems were bookies favs was asked , does that mean they are going to win . “YES “ !!
It is absolutely bizarre. I mean I don’t really follow politics very much, but this must be the first ever political campaign based almost entirely around betting odds .
Although, I do notice they have flip flopped again today, that won’t please Lib Dems, as they will have to get some new leaflets printed now. Have to scrap the bookies favourites ones, and go back to pointing at labours 100/1 price instead . Though last thing they need is for that to start shortening too .
They will probably start asking for more money for the campaign soon. The campaign to make Helen favourite ! Lol. Please help, with your support, we can get Helen to 1.01, please donate £25 , help us keep the odds down, help us increase the chances of winning !
The prices have closed in again, maybe due to prominent political tipsters, and maybe also labour refusing to completely throw the towel in. To be fair though, for all anyone knows, he might not even be that far behind anyway ?
The odds have closed again. But I’m not really feeling anymore confident. My canvassers report still left more questions than answers, and to be honest, given seeing how the Lib Dems are now carpet bombing areas with leaflets and sticking their for sale signs everywhere, maybe it is going to get them enough of a turn out.
I’ve absolutely no idea if it will all translate to votes though ? It is unclear whether or not the message to vote lib dem is getting through to constituents. What is clear , is that the message to Bet Lib Dem , is definitely getting through to their canvassers !
My canvasser did get to speak to one resident before they had to get back on the train and head back up to Guildford. The resident seemed to take pleasure in telling them that they had a young lib dem activist round the other day. Apparently, with a smile on their face, they told my canvasser that they had told the young activist that they would indeed be voting lib dem on Thursday, and that pleased them and they then skipped away feeling very happy that they had helped changed a voters mind.
Though apparently, his smile grew even bigger when he told my canvasser that he was actually going to go out and vote Tory instead !
I’m still torn. It’s not that I can’t see the conservatives losing, I know the vote will be well down. It’s just I still can’t see the Lib Dems winning ! But maybe their tactics of blanket leafleting, signposts everywhere and putting your money where your mouth is , will win it for them ?
And I still have this niggling doubt that maybe this is all part of the internal plot to get Boris out, and they are deliberately losing the election ?! It’s so hard to be confident , so many unknowns still.
Current odds :
Cons… 1.97 / 1.98
Lib dem… 2.04 / 2.06
Labour.. 110 / 140
Reform.. 1000
Greens.. 1000
In order to try and gain a deeper understanding of this market, I went to the expense of hiring a canvasser. I decided to pay them to go on the ground and go into the constituency , try and look for clues, and to maybe knock on a few doors, speak to voters, find out what the issues are on the doorstep. Turns out , the main issue on the doorstep, is the number of leaflets that keep falling on it !
Unfortunately , after they had reported back, there was still very little information to go on. They said the streets were deserted, there was very little going on, and that they only actually managed to speak to one resident who plans to actually go out and vote on Thursday.
However, whilst they didn’t bump into, or speak to many actual voters, there was lots of other canvassers walking around. So they ended up ‘canvassing the canvassers ‘ !
There was now clear evidence of the Lib dem presence. There are quite a few signs in windows, and lots of stake boards now appearing in many gardens too. So I guess if you’re gonna let them stick a big sign in your garden, you’re probably going to go out and vote for them too. There were a few green signs, though nothing for labour or conservatives.
In total my canvasser bumped into a total of 5 different sets of other canvassers. All were from Lib dem .
My canvasser wanted to be part of the ‘progressive alliance’ , though wasnt sure which of the ‘progressive’ parties to vote for. So, in order to gain some clarity about who exactly was ahead, they decided to ask the lib dem canvassers for advice.
When mentioning that internal polling by labour shows them ahead, the lib dem canvassers almost turn red themselves ! “ That’s lies “ “ labour are miles behind and they know it “ . “ labour have no support here “. “ The poll is absolute rubbish “.
So how did they know they were so far ahead ? “Bookies odds “. “ we are the bookies favourites “. “ we have our own internal polling” “ because the responses on the doorstep we have been getting are fantastic”.
So as far as I can tell. The internal polling from Lib Dems , is all based on feedback from the canvassers about their experiences on the doorstep.
Apparently, when asked if he himself had bet , a young Liberal Democrat from London was absolutely beaming when he announced he had £50 ( five zero, FIFTY ! ) on Lib Dems to win. When my canvasser asked should they too put a bet on with the vote “ YES, but the odds aren’t as good now. I got much better odds a few weeks ago” . He obviously got all the value, though has no intention of cashing out. He expects to win, as the “odds have now come right down “.
Another canvasser, after pointing out that Lib Dems were bookies favs was asked , does that mean they are going to win . “YES “ !!
It is absolutely bizarre. I mean I don’t really follow politics very much, but this must be the first ever political campaign based almost entirely around betting odds .
Although, I do notice they have flip flopped again today, that won’t please Lib Dems, as they will have to get some new leaflets printed now. Have to scrap the bookies favourites ones, and go back to pointing at labours 100/1 price instead . Though last thing they need is for that to start shortening too .
They will probably start asking for more money for the campaign soon. The campaign to make Helen favourite ! Lol. Please help, with your support, we can get Helen to 1.01, please donate £25 , help us keep the odds down, help us increase the chances of winning !
The prices have closed in again, maybe due to prominent political tipsters, and maybe also labour refusing to completely throw the towel in. To be fair though, for all anyone knows, he might not even be that far behind anyway ?
The odds have closed again. But I’m not really feeling anymore confident. My canvassers report still left more questions than answers, and to be honest, given seeing how the Lib Dems are now carpet bombing areas with leaflets and sticking their for sale signs everywhere, maybe it is going to get them enough of a turn out.
I’ve absolutely no idea if it will all translate to votes though ? It is unclear whether or not the message to vote lib dem is getting through to constituents. What is clear , is that the message to Bet Lib Dem , is definitely getting through to their canvassers !
My canvasser did get to speak to one resident before they had to get back on the train and head back up to Guildford. The resident seemed to take pleasure in telling them that they had a young lib dem activist round the other day. Apparently, with a smile on their face, they told my canvasser that they had told the young activist that they would indeed be voting lib dem on Thursday, and that pleased them and they then skipped away feeling very happy that they had helped changed a voters mind.
Though apparently, his smile grew even bigger when he told my canvasser that he was actually going to go out and vote Tory instead !
I’m still torn. It’s not that I can’t see the conservatives losing, I know the vote will be well down. It’s just I still can’t see the Lib Dems winning ! But maybe their tactics of blanket leafleting, signposts everywhere and putting your money where your mouth is , will win it for them ?
And I still have this niggling doubt that maybe this is all part of the internal plot to get Boris out, and they are deliberately losing the election ?! It’s so hard to be confident , so many unknowns still.
Current odds :
Cons… 1.97 / 1.98
Lib dem… 2.04 / 2.06
Labour.. 110 / 140
Reform.. 1000
Greens.. 1000
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
PapaShango wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:43 pm
My canvasser did get to speak to one resident before they had to get back on the train and head back up to Guildford. The resident seemed to take pleasure in telling them that they had a young lib dem activist round the other day. Apparently, with a smile on their face, they told my canvasser that they had told the young activist that they would indeed be voting lib dem on Thursday, and that pleased them and they then skipped away feeling very happy that they had helped changed a voters mind.
Though apparently, his smile grew even bigger when he told my canvasser that he was actually going to go out and vote Tory instead !
The results of door-to-door canvassing today probably very similar to 1965.
https://youtu.be/N_hZbZr-9ng?t=1304
I'm still very happy sitting on my large Tory green.
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PapaShango
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm
One day before the vote, and I am still unable to reach a conclusion. My head still says conservatives hold, though there is way too much doubt, conflicting signals, and unknowns to be confident.
To be honest, it is the labour vote which now fascinates me most. On Twitter, the bickering and arguing is really starting to intensify between labour and Lib Dems about who should be standing aside in this. However, this is just London based people arguing with each other, and whether many voters in north Shropshire are aware of all this, I don’t know ?
They also did this before the now famous and much touted Chesham and Amersham win. It’s straight from that playbook. Two days before, Angela Rayner visits the constituency for a Twitter selfie, causes online outrage, yet still the labour vote collapses and goes to the Lib Dem.
So is this just a “progressive alliance” tactic ? Whilst Angela Rayner is quite a well known know labour figure, she is probably known better for being very anti Tory. Is it all done just to draw attention to the tactical voting and progressive alliance, or was she genuinely there to help labour win votes ? For all anybody knows, she could have been there, telling the crowd/supporters that she would almost certainly would have attracted, to all vote Lib Dem ? She could have been there to spread the word of the progressive alliance, and to either refrain, or vote Lib Dem ?
Apparently, this campaign is being run by the same team who ran the Chesham and Amersham one, and the tactics are almost identical. Change the candidate from a man to a woman ( women seem to have much better records in by elections, maybe people trust them more ? ), flood the towns and streets with activists, leaflets, posters and sign posts, then get a high profile visit from Angela Rayner two days before to cause outrage and draw attention to the importance of tactical voting .
The lad campaigning for labour has clearly had no help or backing from head office. No canvassing teams, no leaflet teams, it’s basically him , a bit of local knowledge and his smartphone. To my eyes the labour campaign has been non existent, but I can’t help but feel this lad has been shrewd, and had targeted areas where he knows he can get voters ? On the face of it, it looks to me like he has ran a decent campaign, with very little help or resources.
However, that is only how it looks on the internet ? For all I know, he has just gone round visiting key labour support areas, done a couple of selfies, and told them all to either not vote or vote Lib Dem, as they want the tories out ?
So, to try and gain some clarity on this issue, I got back in touch with my useless canvasser and told them I wasn’t happy with yesterdays efforts, and to get back on the ground in the constituency, and find some labour campaigners / canvassers.
I told them to pose as a green and say you weren’t sure what to do because of the progressive alliance. If they encouraged a vote to Lib Dem, then it’s obvious they are campaigning on behalf of this so called progressive alliance. Though if they said to either stay green, or try to beckon to labour, then it’s obvious that they are trying ( with limited resources ) and that they really are fighting for every vote.
My useless canvasser was out all morning and reported back that they couldn’t find anybody, never mind a labour canvasser, said it was eerily quiet. I told them to carry on searching. Two hours later they tell me they still can’t find anybody anywhere, and that they now have shin splints from all the walking, and if they don’t get on their train they will miss their next connection and then won’t be able to make it home in time for newsnight.
So, I am left unclear. And it won’t be until the figures come through that i will be able to see just how much effort they were making, if any at all. My inclination is to believe they have done quite well in the circumstances. Though maybe that’s what they want people to think. Maybe it is a ‘red ‘ herring to trick the tories into thinking that they are doing their work for them ?
Though part of me thinks that Lib Dems winning this would give labour more of a headache than the tories. Because what happens at the next one ? Are labour, who will likely / maybe be challenging the government at for power. Are they going to stand aside then just because of this ? Do they want Lib Dems making a noise saying they are ready to govern and that Ed Thingy is ready to be prime minister ? Personally, I think labour would prefer a Tory win, so they can tell the Lib Dems to pipe down, and then concentrate on being THE opposition, not just part of it. As it’s clear the two parties have very little in common.
So whilst labour have spent nothing on this, Lib Dems have gone all in. They have spent a fortune on signs, signposts, leaflets , in fact they must have spent so much that they are still literally begging on Twitter,. “ you got a spare 25 quid please mate ?!” Lol.
I can’t help but feel Lib Dems have ran a disingenuous campaign. I think they have lied about their support. They have constantly pointed to bookmakers odds, both online, and in their literature.It won’t take many £50 bets from London based 18-20 year olds on a small election happening miles away in two or three weeks time to make the odds start moving.
Then they seem to have jumped on this as a sign of their popularity. Inadvertently encouraging and promoting gambling, showing a complete lack of understanding of betting markets and how and why odds move. All this, from the liberal left, you really couldn’t make it up !
I also don’t like their tactics of bombarding residents with leaflets and sending children round to pester old people in voting for the nice lady so that they can be saved from the evil man. That sounds far fetched, but my canvasser has heard this on the doorstep.
The only potential voter my canvasser did manage to speak to was an elderly lady on a residential estate of mainly small bungalows. She told my canvasser that she had Lib Dems round at half seven in the evening the other night , pestering her to vote for Helen.
It’s noticeable that the majority of signs stuck in gardens are in areas where mostly old people live. Though to be fair, they just look like for sale signs. I think most residents are wondering when Liberal Democrats are going to start listing their houses on rightmove, rather than whether or not to vote for them. And the diamond placards they have stuck everywhere are almost identical in size and colour to the many signs you see for local neighbourhood watch ! Whether that plays in their favour or not, I don’t know.
But despite not being particularly impressed by what I am hearing about their campaign. It’s not to say it won’t be effective? If you spend all that money, put all those signs up, and knock on all those doors, it must have some effect ? Maybe that’s how to win a by election ? It worked in Chesham and Amersham, maybe it works in north Shropshire too ?
The main thing my canvasser was hearing, was that people are not going to vote. Most people don’t care, many are not even aware that a by election is going on. There is lots and lots of anecdotal evidence of conservatives, for one reason or another, not going out to vote.
Though canvassing is clearly difficult in this area, and my canvasser is one of the worst ones out, there is still little evidence of people who have had enough and are going to vote Lib Dem to send a message ?! My canvasser is hearing nothing along those lines. Though the signs are now everywhere , in peoples windows, in peoples gardens, maybe people are ?
In the Chesham and Amersham by election, it does look like lots switched from conservatives to Lib Dem. I still think they need that to happen in this one too, maybe it is doing / will do. Though from a personal point of view, I can only believe it when I see it.
Conservatives are losing votes left , right and centre. Of that there is no doubt. I have very strong concerns about their candidate. My canvasser gave him a very negative rating, almost to the point of questioning whether or not they are actually trying to lose ? Is this an act of self sabotage, to lose the election, and have an even bigger stick to beat Boris with ? The fact he is not local has played against him. His campaign though has been very low key, and people may still vote for the party, rather than for the candidate.
There is though, evidence of a loyal conservative vote. By the sounds of things, there are going to be many who will turn out regardless. The vote count is sure to drop, and likely drop by a lot. Though I still think it will give the Lib Dems a decent total to aim for. And it will still come down to how many votes cons lose to the right, and what percentage Lib Dems can take of the ‘progressive’ vote, and whether or not they have actually got voters to jump from conservatives to Lib Dem.
From a personal point of view, I can’t win now either. I’m still thinking conservative hold, though have seen way too much to put me off going all in. To be honest, I kind of wanted to be all in on a conservative win. But my research, my doubts and seeing the intensity and how much the Lib Dems are throwing at their campaign, and the tactics they are using has put me off.
My book is nicely green now after recent odds movements, if I want it. Though I’ve not “greened up”. I probably should, given what I now feel about the market. Though I still can’t bring myself to do it. I think I’d rather lib dems win, I lose my money, and I am disgruntled enough to never bet on these types of markets again , and probably never even turn on the news again either lol
As I said, I can’t win now. As if conservatives do win, which I still suspect they will, then I have missed out on the betting opportunity of my lifetime. However, if they lose, then I’ve still lost enough money to be pissed off about it anyway !
Really looking forward to seeing the results now. It will be fascinating to see how all this plays out in votes.
I would like to wish all the candidates good luck.
Current odds:
Lib Dem… 2.22 / 2.28
Cons…. 1.8 / 1.85
Labour …. 130 / 160
Reform… 1000
Green… 1000
To be honest, it is the labour vote which now fascinates me most. On Twitter, the bickering and arguing is really starting to intensify between labour and Lib Dems about who should be standing aside in this. However, this is just London based people arguing with each other, and whether many voters in north Shropshire are aware of all this, I don’t know ?
They also did this before the now famous and much touted Chesham and Amersham win. It’s straight from that playbook. Two days before, Angela Rayner visits the constituency for a Twitter selfie, causes online outrage, yet still the labour vote collapses and goes to the Lib Dem.
So is this just a “progressive alliance” tactic ? Whilst Angela Rayner is quite a well known know labour figure, she is probably known better for being very anti Tory. Is it all done just to draw attention to the tactical voting and progressive alliance, or was she genuinely there to help labour win votes ? For all anybody knows, she could have been there, telling the crowd/supporters that she would almost certainly would have attracted, to all vote Lib Dem ? She could have been there to spread the word of the progressive alliance, and to either refrain, or vote Lib Dem ?
Apparently, this campaign is being run by the same team who ran the Chesham and Amersham one, and the tactics are almost identical. Change the candidate from a man to a woman ( women seem to have much better records in by elections, maybe people trust them more ? ), flood the towns and streets with activists, leaflets, posters and sign posts, then get a high profile visit from Angela Rayner two days before to cause outrage and draw attention to the importance of tactical voting .
The lad campaigning for labour has clearly had no help or backing from head office. No canvassing teams, no leaflet teams, it’s basically him , a bit of local knowledge and his smartphone. To my eyes the labour campaign has been non existent, but I can’t help but feel this lad has been shrewd, and had targeted areas where he knows he can get voters ? On the face of it, it looks to me like he has ran a decent campaign, with very little help or resources.
However, that is only how it looks on the internet ? For all I know, he has just gone round visiting key labour support areas, done a couple of selfies, and told them all to either not vote or vote Lib Dem, as they want the tories out ?
So, to try and gain some clarity on this issue, I got back in touch with my useless canvasser and told them I wasn’t happy with yesterdays efforts, and to get back on the ground in the constituency, and find some labour campaigners / canvassers.
I told them to pose as a green and say you weren’t sure what to do because of the progressive alliance. If they encouraged a vote to Lib Dem, then it’s obvious they are campaigning on behalf of this so called progressive alliance. Though if they said to either stay green, or try to beckon to labour, then it’s obvious that they are trying ( with limited resources ) and that they really are fighting for every vote.
My useless canvasser was out all morning and reported back that they couldn’t find anybody, never mind a labour canvasser, said it was eerily quiet. I told them to carry on searching. Two hours later they tell me they still can’t find anybody anywhere, and that they now have shin splints from all the walking, and if they don’t get on their train they will miss their next connection and then won’t be able to make it home in time for newsnight.
So, I am left unclear. And it won’t be until the figures come through that i will be able to see just how much effort they were making, if any at all. My inclination is to believe they have done quite well in the circumstances. Though maybe that’s what they want people to think. Maybe it is a ‘red ‘ herring to trick the tories into thinking that they are doing their work for them ?
Though part of me thinks that Lib Dems winning this would give labour more of a headache than the tories. Because what happens at the next one ? Are labour, who will likely / maybe be challenging the government at for power. Are they going to stand aside then just because of this ? Do they want Lib Dems making a noise saying they are ready to govern and that Ed Thingy is ready to be prime minister ? Personally, I think labour would prefer a Tory win, so they can tell the Lib Dems to pipe down, and then concentrate on being THE opposition, not just part of it. As it’s clear the two parties have very little in common.
So whilst labour have spent nothing on this, Lib Dems have gone all in. They have spent a fortune on signs, signposts, leaflets , in fact they must have spent so much that they are still literally begging on Twitter,. “ you got a spare 25 quid please mate ?!” Lol.
I can’t help but feel Lib Dems have ran a disingenuous campaign. I think they have lied about their support. They have constantly pointed to bookmakers odds, both online, and in their literature.It won’t take many £50 bets from London based 18-20 year olds on a small election happening miles away in two or three weeks time to make the odds start moving.
Then they seem to have jumped on this as a sign of their popularity. Inadvertently encouraging and promoting gambling, showing a complete lack of understanding of betting markets and how and why odds move. All this, from the liberal left, you really couldn’t make it up !
I also don’t like their tactics of bombarding residents with leaflets and sending children round to pester old people in voting for the nice lady so that they can be saved from the evil man. That sounds far fetched, but my canvasser has heard this on the doorstep.
The only potential voter my canvasser did manage to speak to was an elderly lady on a residential estate of mainly small bungalows. She told my canvasser that she had Lib Dems round at half seven in the evening the other night , pestering her to vote for Helen.
It’s noticeable that the majority of signs stuck in gardens are in areas where mostly old people live. Though to be fair, they just look like for sale signs. I think most residents are wondering when Liberal Democrats are going to start listing their houses on rightmove, rather than whether or not to vote for them. And the diamond placards they have stuck everywhere are almost identical in size and colour to the many signs you see for local neighbourhood watch ! Whether that plays in their favour or not, I don’t know.
But despite not being particularly impressed by what I am hearing about their campaign. It’s not to say it won’t be effective? If you spend all that money, put all those signs up, and knock on all those doors, it must have some effect ? Maybe that’s how to win a by election ? It worked in Chesham and Amersham, maybe it works in north Shropshire too ?
The main thing my canvasser was hearing, was that people are not going to vote. Most people don’t care, many are not even aware that a by election is going on. There is lots and lots of anecdotal evidence of conservatives, for one reason or another, not going out to vote.
Though canvassing is clearly difficult in this area, and my canvasser is one of the worst ones out, there is still little evidence of people who have had enough and are going to vote Lib Dem to send a message ?! My canvasser is hearing nothing along those lines. Though the signs are now everywhere , in peoples windows, in peoples gardens, maybe people are ?
In the Chesham and Amersham by election, it does look like lots switched from conservatives to Lib Dem. I still think they need that to happen in this one too, maybe it is doing / will do. Though from a personal point of view, I can only believe it when I see it.
Conservatives are losing votes left , right and centre. Of that there is no doubt. I have very strong concerns about their candidate. My canvasser gave him a very negative rating, almost to the point of questioning whether or not they are actually trying to lose ? Is this an act of self sabotage, to lose the election, and have an even bigger stick to beat Boris with ? The fact he is not local has played against him. His campaign though has been very low key, and people may still vote for the party, rather than for the candidate.
There is though, evidence of a loyal conservative vote. By the sounds of things, there are going to be many who will turn out regardless. The vote count is sure to drop, and likely drop by a lot. Though I still think it will give the Lib Dems a decent total to aim for. And it will still come down to how many votes cons lose to the right, and what percentage Lib Dems can take of the ‘progressive’ vote, and whether or not they have actually got voters to jump from conservatives to Lib Dem.
From a personal point of view, I can’t win now either. I’m still thinking conservative hold, though have seen way too much to put me off going all in. To be honest, I kind of wanted to be all in on a conservative win. But my research, my doubts and seeing the intensity and how much the Lib Dems are throwing at their campaign, and the tactics they are using has put me off.
My book is nicely green now after recent odds movements, if I want it. Though I’ve not “greened up”. I probably should, given what I now feel about the market. Though I still can’t bring myself to do it. I think I’d rather lib dems win, I lose my money, and I am disgruntled enough to never bet on these types of markets again , and probably never even turn on the news again either lol
As I said, I can’t win now. As if conservatives do win, which I still suspect they will, then I have missed out on the betting opportunity of my lifetime. However, if they lose, then I’ve still lost enough money to be pissed off about it anyway !
Really looking forward to seeing the results now. It will be fascinating to see how all this plays out in votes.
I would like to wish all the candidates good luck.
Current odds:
Lib Dem… 2.22 / 2.28
Cons…. 1.8 / 1.85
Labour …. 130 / 160
Reform… 1000
Green… 1000
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PapaShango
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm
My useless canvasser is so bad that they ended up missing their train home yesterday and ended up sleeping the night in a north Shropshire train station waiting room.
As there were no trains back to London before 10 am anyway, I told them to get back on the ground, and search for some last minute clues.
The report back wasn’t great for the conservatives. There is now clear evidence of the Lib Dem message getting through , they do have support. There is also, perhaps more worryingly for conservative backers, evidence of blue turning to yellow. Admittedly, only one, though there must be others.
There is lots more anecdotal evidence of people not turning out, for various different reasons. Lots of very safe conservative votes are clearly not turning out. So, though only a very small sample, the canvassing report for the conservatives was not great, it certainly didn’t inspire confidence, quite the opposite.
However, on a very slightly more positive note for conservative backers. There was now sign of a labour presence. My canvasser did finally get to speak to a couple (!) of labour representatives. They assured them that they are definitely trying, there is no progressive alliance, and that, despite very little funding or help from head office, they are fighting for every vote. Both, apparently, did not seem happy with how the Lib Dems had fought this.
I am now of the opinion that the conservatives really are in deep trouble. It’s unclear how much of their core loyal vote will turn out, and the Lib Dems carpet bombing, betting, door knocking and signposting is clearly getting through.
I think the hopes of a conservative victory now hinge on how well labour do. It may all come down to how well a lad with a smartphone and the labour rosette will fare up against a full on dirty expensive lid Dem campaign.
I’m still unsure. I’m kind of leaning towards Lib Dem now, though obviously I am being led and biased from a very small canvassing sample ! I really don’t know . It’s so hard.
After the result, it will look obvious.
If cons hold, people will point the huge majority they had, and ask why it was Lib Dems and not labour who threw everything at this.
If Lib Dems win, people will point to Chesham and Amersham and the by election success that the Lib Dems have had. As well as the public sentiment around boris Johnson, the conservatives bad press in media, the low turn out and losing votes left right and centre.
Both will seem obvious when votes are in and results are known. In hindsight all will be clear, though with foresight, I just don’t know lol
Current odds :
Cons… 1.76 / 1.81
Lib Dem … 2.24 / 2.28
Labour … 160 / 200
Reform … 1000
Greens… 1000
As there were no trains back to London before 10 am anyway, I told them to get back on the ground, and search for some last minute clues.
The report back wasn’t great for the conservatives. There is now clear evidence of the Lib Dem message getting through , they do have support. There is also, perhaps more worryingly for conservative backers, evidence of blue turning to yellow. Admittedly, only one, though there must be others.
There is lots more anecdotal evidence of people not turning out, for various different reasons. Lots of very safe conservative votes are clearly not turning out. So, though only a very small sample, the canvassing report for the conservatives was not great, it certainly didn’t inspire confidence, quite the opposite.
However, on a very slightly more positive note for conservative backers. There was now sign of a labour presence. My canvasser did finally get to speak to a couple (!) of labour representatives. They assured them that they are definitely trying, there is no progressive alliance, and that, despite very little funding or help from head office, they are fighting for every vote. Both, apparently, did not seem happy with how the Lib Dems had fought this.
I am now of the opinion that the conservatives really are in deep trouble. It’s unclear how much of their core loyal vote will turn out, and the Lib Dems carpet bombing, betting, door knocking and signposting is clearly getting through.
I think the hopes of a conservative victory now hinge on how well labour do. It may all come down to how well a lad with a smartphone and the labour rosette will fare up against a full on dirty expensive lid Dem campaign.
I’m still unsure. I’m kind of leaning towards Lib Dem now, though obviously I am being led and biased from a very small canvassing sample ! I really don’t know . It’s so hard.
After the result, it will look obvious.
If cons hold, people will point the huge majority they had, and ask why it was Lib Dems and not labour who threw everything at this.
If Lib Dems win, people will point to Chesham and Amersham and the by election success that the Lib Dems have had. As well as the public sentiment around boris Johnson, the conservatives bad press in media, the low turn out and losing votes left right and centre.
Both will seem obvious when votes are in and results are known. In hindsight all will be clear, though with foresight, I just don’t know lol
Current odds :
Cons… 1.76 / 1.81
Lib Dem … 2.24 / 2.28
Labour … 160 / 200
Reform … 1000
Greens… 1000
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Odds have flipflopped again. Is it the old daytime demographics skewing early pollster results? Or is there actually some tangible movement towards a >30% swing from Cons?
Con 2.04
Lib 1.94
Lab 200
Con 2.04
Lib 1.94
Lab 200
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Plenty of cash flooded in for Lib then. Looked like someone took the price all the way down to 1.6 as Cons traded as high as 3.0.
Market correcting itself now...
Market correcting itself now...
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Just 3 hours to go. Anything before 7pm is likely mainly heart driven. Market moves from now on will be more likely based on inside info. No moves in the last hour.
Con 2.55
Lib 1.65
Con 2.55
Lib 1.65
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Continued slow movement towards Lib Dem upset. Given the Betfair system issues and risk of further outage I've just bailed out with a small green on Con and Lib.
I can now watch the result unfold in a state of interested calm.
I can now watch the result unfold in a state of interested calm.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Big flip flop. Seems the Tories have it in the bag.
Cons now into 1.6
Lib 2.4
Cons now into 1.6
Lib 2.4