Brazilian Election 2022

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Naffman
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First round is next Sunday

Lula 1.42
Bolsonaro 3.35

Lula still well ahead in the polls, could be a repeat of J6
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:18 pm
First round is next Sunday

Lula 1.42
Bolsonaro 3.35

Lula still well ahead in the polls, could be a repeat of J6
Is there any election you're not interested in? I've heard the village hall at Cuckfield is electing a new chairman. :lol:
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ShaunWhite
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:18 pm
First round is next Sunday

Lula 1.42
Bolsonaro 3.35

Lula still well ahead in the polls, could be a repeat of J6
Bolsonaro isn't popular on the streets, ditto many South American semu-dictatorships taking backhanders from the USA ..... https://youtu.be/GK87AKIPyZY. (skip to about 2:20, you don't need to understand the language to understand the imagery)
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ShaunWhite
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.... I'd forgotten how good that video is, and we think our politics is messed up.
Trader Pat
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I didn't know much about Bolsonaro before I watched the doc on BBC right now which us very good. I used to think he was a wannabe Trump but its actually Trump who is a wannabe Bolsonaro.

Some of the similarities are amazing. Bolsonaro made one of his sons run against his own mother in local elections and Trump made all his children side with him when his ex accused him of rape and battery. Like most wannabe dictators they don't like strong women unless they're engaging in a position from the Kama Sutra.
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ShaunWhite
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Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:18 pm
I didn't know much about Bolsonaro before I watched the doc on BBC right now which is very good.
Thanks for the reminder, I saw a preview then forgot about it. The Beeb do those things so well which is something people don't think about when they want to scrap it.
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Dallas
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I haven't heard of Lula but after Bolsonaro's denial of Covid and his poor handling of it I'm not really surprised to see him as the outsider in an election so soon while its still fresh in many peoples memories
Trader Pat
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Dallas wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:05 pm
I haven't heard of Lula but after Bolsonaro's denial of Covid and his poor handling of it I'm not really surprised to see him as the outsider in an election so soon while its still fresh in many peoples memories
Really interesting character. His Wikipedia page is worth a read especially the part on Operation Car Wash where he was sentenced to 12 years in prison on corruption charges! :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C ... rosecution

All charges were dropped against him but he still spent a couple of years in prison. Either he was the victim of political persecution or he's just another corrupt politician but either way the people love him. Stands for everything Bolsonaro doesn't so it should be an interesting election.

The biggest thing I took from the BBC doc was Bolsonaro was an even bigger joke in Brazil when he ran for president than Trump was in America. He was well behind in the polls to Lula but then won the election because Lula was being investigated for taking bribes!

Who says politics is boring! :)
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Naffman
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Dallas wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:05 pm
I haven't heard of Lula but after Bolsonaro's denial of Covid and his poor handling of it I'm not really surprised to see him as the outsider in an election so soon while its still fresh in many peoples memories
Bolso really struggling with women and 65+, other prediction markets have him 4/1 at least, BF were betting 13/8 not too long ago
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Naffman
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Lula 1.39 with a 61-39 poll released early this morning, from memory I think the closest poll in the past few months was 54-46
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Naffman
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Lula now 1.49 from 1.39 a week ago with slightly more favourable polls than last week. 1st round is next Sunday then a 2nd round end of October if no-one gets above 50%.

I can't remember how much liquidity the French election had but £3.2m is a good number a week out.
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Dallas
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I've never monitored the volumes before but knowing how active the Brazilians are on football I would suspect that some of that could rub off on the political markets so volumes may go quite high
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Naffman
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Dallas wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:48 pm
I've never monitored the volumes before but knowing how active the Brazilians are on football I would suspect that some of that could rub off on the political markets so volumes may go quite high
Yeah I've heard that, and local bookies hedging off too.

I'm surprised there isn't a 'will it go to the 2nd round' market, would do some good numbers too.
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Naffman
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Lula 1.4 out to 1.7 with only overseas votes in...madness
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Naffman
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Polls definitely underestimated Bolso but Lula will go into the run-off about 5% ahead and should get 60-70% of the remaining votes.
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