Excuses, Excuses, Excuses

[Michael5482]

Reform now topping the polls for the 1st time, Tory's loosing more ground. Kemi is an absolute disaster for them, she or the Tory's have nothing in their armoury to outdo Farage. The other problem the Tory's have is Reform are more conservative than the conservatives, they cant put any policies out. Labour just continue to capitulate with senseless policy's.

As Sionascaig has touched upon it could be the beginning of the end for first past the post voting, it cannot support 3 main stream political parties.

Interesting times ahead.

[sionascaig]

Reform now topping the polls for the 1st time, Tory's loosing more ground. Kemi is an absolute disaster for them, she or the Tory's have nothing in their armoury to outdo Farage. The other problem the Tory's have is Reform are more conservative than the conservatives, they cant put any policies out. Labour just continue to capitulate with senseless policy's.

As Sionascaig has touched upon it could be the beginning of the end for first past the post voting, it cannot support 3 main stream political parties.

Interesting times ahead.

I can't see the UK population as a whole accepting the results if a party winning the popular vote comes in 3rd or 4th in Westminster...

Could well be 1st past the post is broke with 3 parties polling around the same.

Screenshot 2025-02-03 194957.png

Screenshot 2025-02-03 195237.png

[jamesedwards]

Reform now topping the polls for the 1st time, Tory's loosing more ground. Kemi is an absolute disaster for them, she or the Tory's have nothing in their armoury to outdo Farage. The other problem the Tory's have is Reform are more conservative than the conservatives, they cant put any policies out. Labour just continue to capitulate with senseless policy's.

As Sionascaig has touched upon it could be the beginning of the end for first past the post voting, it cannot support 3 main stream political parties.

Interesting times ahead.

I can't see the UK population as a whole accepting the results if a party winning the popular vote comes in 3rd or 4th in Westminster...

Could well be 1st past the post is broke with 3 parties polling around the same.

Screenshot 2025-02-03 194957.png
Screenshot 2025-02-03 195237.png

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance before the vote. Most likely we'll end up with a right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.

[sionascaig]

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance before the vote. Most likely we'll end up with a right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.

Its almost all tactical voting in Scotland now.

You are either a unionist or indie and vote for party most likely to win constituency that represents that cause. There are a LOT of conservatives that have to hold their nose and vote Labour otherwise SNP wins.

If there is no deal with Reform & Conservatives in run up to election I can see "tactical" voting becoming the norm in England too otherwise the "right / centre right" vote will split.

So possibility core Conservative will have no option but to vote for Reform if they can't stomach alternatives.

==> And this could be where the wheels fall off polling, as it will be a last minute and I'm not going to admit to it type scenario.

[ForFolksSake]

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance before the vote. Most likely we'll end up with a right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.

Its almost all tactical voting in Scotland now.

You are either a unionist or indie and vote for party most likely to win constituency that represents that cause. There are a LOT of conservatives that have to hold their nose and vote Labour otherwise SNP wins.

If there is no deal with Reform & Conservatives in run up to election I can see "tactical" voting becoming the norm in England too otherwise the "right / centre right" vote will split.

So possibility core Conservative will have no option but to vote for Reform if they can't stomach alternatives.

==> And this could be where the wheels fall off polling, as it will be a last minute and I'm not going to admit to it type scenario.

Starmer’s dismal ratings mean Labour will lose Scottish elections, says Sir John Curtice
New poll also shows Reform UK on the cusp of major breakthrough in Scotland

[sionascaig]

Starmer’s dismal ratings mean Labour will lose Scottish elections, says Sir John Curtice
New poll also shows Reform UK on the cusp of major breakthrough in Scotland

Yup, it's PR so will defo get some seats. And you get two votes so can vote for both Cons & Reform.

Labour have been in freefall but it seems to be bottoming out now.

Overall, I suspect the bunfight between Reform & Conservatives in Scotland could be a good indicator of what is too come in UK elections. That should start later this year as next Scottish elections 2026.

In the meantime we have English council elections in May to look forward to (if that is the right word)...

edit - looks like a lot of May elections postponed till next year!

[Michael5482]

More trouble for Labour with Andrew Gwynne sacked for racists, misogynistic messages in a Labour What's App group with more to come by the sounds of it including another MP.

Labour have come into Government taking the moral high ground and so far delivered

Louise Haigh Fraud conviction
Tulip Sidiq Named by the Bangladesh Government as being involved in corruption
Mike Amesbury Knocking ten bells out a constituent awaiting sentencing after pleading guilty
Andrew Gwynne A racist

Among the messages Gwynne hoped a pensioner would die before the next election for writing to him regarding bin collection this is after cancelling winter fuel allowance.

The authorities spent the summer convicting and jailing people for Facebook posts along with Starmer labelling most of the country far right so expect to see the same here but won't hold my breath........ two tier Kier anyone

[sionascaig]

And Reform just expelled an ex conservative MSP from their party for belonging / supporting some group on Facebook that is filled with racist content.

Thought it was a bit weird at the time as it looked like she got expelled because of what other people posted - maybe Reform attempting to be squeaky clean or more to the story.

Given polls it could be interesting to see how many conservative MP's switch to Reform as the election approaches - what a dilemma for the poor sausages - whats best for me v's whats best for the country. A real conundrum...

[Michael5482]

And Reform just expelled an ex conservative MSP from their party for belonging / supporting some group on Facebook that is filled with racist content.

Thought it was a bit weird at the time as it looked like she got expelled because of what other people posted - maybe Reform attempting to be squeaky clean or more to the story.

Given polls it could be interesting to see how many conservative MP's switch to Reform as the election approaches - what a dilemma for the poor sausages - whats best for me v's whats best for the country. A real conundrum...

The issue I have with your comments is Reform are not running the country, Labour came into Government taking the moral high ground and delivered nothing different to the Tory's in relation to sleaze. Reform have never attempted to take any moral high ground probably because they know they'll get the odd bad apple.

Raising a racist with a racist doesn't really get to the core issue that politics in general absolutely stinks and its Labour and Tory's who were/are and should be setting the standards but they both appear to have none. They have both ran the country and over seen lies, corruption, racism, anti-Semitism and misogyny amongst other things with more to come.

To simply call Reform out is no defence.

[sionascaig]

To simply call Reform out is no defence.

Sorry, didn't mean it that way (as a defence)....

Just thought it was interesting that they are taking action to get ahead of potential perceived future issue.

Reform are on record that they have had issues in the past and doing something about it = good...

I agree with what you say..

[Michael5482]

To simply call Reform out is no defence.

Sorry, didn't mean it that way (as a defence)....

Just thought it was interesting that they are taking action to get ahead of potential perceived future issue.

Reform are on record that they have had issues in the past and doing something about it = good...

I agree with what you say..

Apologies for the misinterpretation.

Reform were in the news up my way the other day two individuals claimed to have been selected to be councillors for Reform UK and posted Reform slogans etc. Reform UK were straight on it and confirmed they haven't released any names for candidates yet for council elections and the two individuals had failed vetting at the first hurdle due to extremist views so weren't even to be considered as candidates. Not only that when they failed vetting they revoked their party membership.

It would appear Reform are making headway with vetting etc

My opinion is Government should set the standards for other party's and the public but the Tory's had no bar and appears the Labour Party have no bar either and it drags politics and society deeper into a cess-pit.

[Michael5482]

Watching the news one thing is evident to me that both Tory & Labour Governments over a long sustained period have sold the British people down the river on absolutely everything.

They've absolutely decimated British manufacturing, British self sufficiency in energy, in farming, decimated our armed forces to name a few things along with turning us into a high immigration low income economy.

What you think of Trump is irrelevant because he's doing what he said he'd do and has a massive mandate to do it form the American people and it's just highlighted how exposed and mismanaged Britain has become. The can has been kicked down the road and we're just about all out of road.

You can argue over semantics over Tory and Labour but see no value in it as they are both equally responsible IMO

[ForFolksSake]

Watching the news one thing is evident to me that both Tory & Labour Governments over a long sustained period have sold the British people down the river on absolutely everything.

They've absolutely decimated British manufacturing, British self sufficiency in energy, in farming, decimated our armed forces to name a few things along with turning us into a high immigration low income economy.

What you think of Trump is irrelevant because he's doing what he said he'd do and has a massive mandate to do it form the American people and it's just highlighted how exposed and mismanaged Britain has become. The can has been kicked down the road and we're just about all out of road.

You can argue over semantics over Tory and Labour but see no value in it as they are both equally responsible IMO

England has been ruined by the Tory and Labour governments over the last 25 years

Trump and Elon Musk are aware, and regard the collapse of England as a warning. “They’re trying to avoid our mistakes'

[sionascaig]

England has been ruined by the Tory and Labour governments over the last 25 years

Trump and Elon Musk are aware, and regard the collapse of England as a warning. “They’re trying to avoid our mistakes'

I'd include Farage in that. He has to take some responsibility for the Brexit bollocks that was spouted during the referendum campaign. although I take your point that, even if Brexit had the potential to be a good thing it wasn't him that implemented it (not that I want to have an argument over Brexit again)...!

But - Hello - have you not seen the state of America. Levels of poverty & homelessness are through the roof. Even the price of eggs are hitting $1 per egg never mind the cost of medicines / healthcare / insurance...

America is well broke & we should be glad UK not is a similar state.

PS: I'm not disagreeing with your general point, UK Gov have been a shambles. UK is almost an irrelevance in the world stage now as evidenced by influence on what is happening on Ukraine talks and the ex-army chief that said this morning we do not even have enough troops to support our allies in a peacekeeping arrangement for Ukraine in any meaningful way.

London still No 1 location to launder drug money in the world though...

[firlandsfarm]

Well, well, well ... yet another Labour MP (and senior and a Minister) has been found out lying in their career claims. It's not a matter of Right and Left, it's a matter of Right and Wrong! Is this what KS mean by bringing honesty back into UK politics!!!