PeterLe wrote:I was just looking through some of the results from last year and thought Id share this (as I know a few people are running the "Lay the first to trade under 2" bot recently created by Dallas.
Data taken from Betfair Results (Timeform)
Of the 27(?) races, only 3 races had three runners that traded under 2 (NB: Empahsis on UNDER, many traded at 2).
There were 6 races that had two that traded under 2 *ie you would have broke even or thereabouts).
18 races where only the winner traded under 2 (thats high)
2 low losers at 1.05 and 1.07, Highest winner 240 in play
Maybe there is an automated strategy to trade back the first horse to trade under 1.98 (backing at 1.01 to make sure you get matched and maybe fire a lay bet in at 1.1 for eg to hedge..)
Just a though; but good luck eitherway!
Regards
Peter
..Just for completeness; id thought Id just expand on my first post..which I posted in the Cheltenham 2015 thread. I decidd to move it to a new thread so not to clog up the Cheltenham thread..
I took a look at the results from 2014 and 2013 too
The table below shows the number traded under 2. So for example in 2015, 18 Times only the winner traded under 2, 6 times 2 traded under 2 etc...
If you had a system that backed any horse that traded under 2 (assuming you fired the bet in no lower than 1.8) the results would have been something like in the table (these are back of a fag packet calcs, but good enough for developing an idea). Discounting commission etc
I can think of a way that you could mitigate the losses but closing the trade if a close race is detected (which is something opposite to what Im doing on another system, so would complement).
Anyway hope that helps anyone new to autotrading and how I would go about creating and developing a new strategy..If nothing else it shows how my irrational mind works
(I was sent to the shop this evening by the missus for four items and came back without the loaf!, The look on her face was priceless!, we cant be perfect can we chaps!)
Regards
Peter
PS Other thoughts;
- If you fire a bet in at 1.8 when the LTP hits below 2, you would have an excellent chance of being matched especially with the liquidity and Cross matching (2 is s magic number where cross matching is concerned, if you get chance take a look at how many horses hit exactly 2 and dont win) and how much is sitting at 2's as a race goes into play..
- Unless you have a VPS Im not sure you will have the speed to market to make this work
