goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:14 pm
Trader724 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:17 am
goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:11 pm
It looks pretty decent, keep it up.
Overall looks good doesn't it.. however since actually running it live 1stApril, it's not doing well... This seems to be a consistent trend, in that you find an algo that seems to show promise over the last month or so, it then performs pants going forward.. It's as-if algo creation is efficient, in that 1000s of algo creators are doing the same thing based on the last month, which thus makes forward trading -ve... So what I need to come up with is a strategy that is "not in the last month" ..yeah?
Don't worry about competition right now, try to solve one problem at a time and make sure you fit your model to market behavior, not to market data. When you go from backtesting to live, the psychological factor comes into play, you can start directly with a drawdown period. For us, only long-term results matter and we have to be patient.
If you think you've found an edge, try to explain why it
works, and if you can't find an explanation, you're trying to explain the inexplicable, which is lying to yourself.
You should not rule out that you have partially curve fitted your strategy (I did it when I started out) and consequently the real edge is much smaller, so be careful what stakes you use, you may suffer too much drawdown wich will make you believe it doesn't work at all.