Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

goat68 wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:34 pm
So have 2 bots i'm letting run now, one UKGreyhounds, one AUSHorses.
Target is to hit end of month positive, currently:
Screenshot 2021-06-18 at 22.32.04.png
Where you said in another thread that you lost £11 where they went off early then consider placing safety bets out of the money to take SP as discussed in various threads including the "Betfair Down / Betfair site crash" thread ...
Dallas wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 5:09 pm
JasBarrow wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:59 pm
As a trader if you got into the habit of always placing your closing positions in the market at the same time as your opening positions, and also using the Take SP function in the event of these outages wouldn't you stand to just lose a small amount if anything when the market is eventually reconciled?

So for example I place a lay bet at 3.30 and the back bet at 4.50 way outside the money... if there's an outage I can relax to an extent because as long as the back and lay stakes in the market add up to zero then I can only stand to lose a fraction of the liability if I would have been caught out with just my original lay bet taken and no back bet on the other side.

Or am I missing something?
Y, that's a sensible way to do it and where Safety Servants can help by doing it for you
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopi ... 58&t=15199

Some further options here
https://www.betangel.com/blog/betfair-e ... age-crash/
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

foxwood wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:43 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:34 pm
So have 2 bots i'm letting run now, one UKGreyhounds, one AUSHorses.
Target is to hit end of month positive, currently:
Screenshot 2021-06-18 at 22.32.04.png
Where you said in another thread that you lost £11 where they went off early then consider placing safety bets out of the money to take SP as discussed in various threads including the "Betfair Down / Betfair site crash" thread ...
Dallas wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 5:09 pm
JasBarrow wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:59 pm
As a trader if you got into the habit of always placing your closing positions in the market at the same time as your opening positions, and also using the Take SP function in the event of these outages wouldn't you stand to just lose a small amount if anything when the market is eventually reconciled?

So for example I place a lay bet at 3.30 and the back bet at 4.50 way outside the money... if there's an outage I can relax to an extent because as long as the back and lay stakes in the market add up to zero then I can only stand to lose a fraction of the liability if I would have been caught out with just my original lay bet taken and no back bet on the other side.

Or am I missing something?
Y, that's a sensible way to do it and where Safety Servants can help by doing it for you
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopi ... 58&t=15199

Some further options here
https://www.betangel.com/blog/betfair-e ... age-crash/
Thanks, that's actually what I've already added
Cheers
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I think you do need a bit of luck in this game, or even maybe not so much bad-luck..!
Just had one of my Lay AUS horses slip from odds of 13.5 to 11 BSP and then winning! caused a nasty loss!, I should ignore it really as the averaged loss taking into account the odds is quite small, in other words the next 10times it happens i'll profit (as long as I am not unlucky!)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:48 am
I think you do need a bit of luck in this game, or even maybe not so much bad-luck..!
Just had one of my Lay AUS horses slip from odds of 13.5 to 11 BSP and then winning! caused a nasty loss!, I should ignore it really as the averaged loss taking into account the odds is quite small, in other words the next 10times it happens i'll profit (as long as I am not unlucky!)
There's no such thing as 'luck', only probability. :)

So it went from a 7.4% chance to a 9% chance, not a particularly big move. So how come it was a nasty loss? And how come you cared if it won or lost?

If you're hedging and this was another that failed then you'll only get your 10 winners if you have 10 more failures in similar circumstances. This is why everything needs to be tested to death, a run of rare failures can take you out of the game.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:22 pm
goat68 wrote:
Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:48 am
I think you do need a bit of luck in this game, or even maybe not so much bad-luck..!
Just had one of my Lay AUS horses slip from odds of 13.5 to 11 BSP and then winning! caused a nasty loss!, I should ignore it really as the averaged loss taking into account the odds is quite small, in other words the next 10times it happens i'll profit (as long as I am not unlucky!)
There's no such thing as 'luck', only probability. :)

So it went from a 7.4% chance to a 9% chance, not a particularly big move. So how come it was a nasty loss? And how come you cared if it won or lost?

If you're hedging and this was another that failed then you'll only get your 10 winners if you have 10 more failures in similar circumstances. This is why everything needs to be tested to death, a run of rare failures can take you out of the game.
As I said, I should ignore it really as the ...
the miss-balanced hedge caused a larger loss, the loss on Winning was 10x the loss if it had lost...
conversely there are more times when the hedge is miss-balanced and I make more profit
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:10 pm
there are more times when the hedge is miss-balanced and I make more profit
That's going to even out over a few thousand bets. Well not strictly even out, just become less statistically significant with the law of averages not being the same as the law of large numbers.

I know why that happens, but you'd need foresight to benefit from it long term.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Dogs letting the month down:
Screenshot 2021-06-24 at 17.56.32.png
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I'm definitely unlucky!
To solve my hedging problems and grab every last ounce of "value" I changed my dog bot to minimum possible stake and no-hedge, it's a Back only bot, average price of bet is about 8.0.
It's currently on a 38 bets in a row losing streak, even at an average odds of 8.0 (12.5%), the odds of losing 38times in a row is 0.6% !!!
There's only 6 bloody dogs how can it not pick a winner 38times in a row!?!?
Trying to look on the positive side of things, 0.6% is about 1 in 167, so I shouldn't see such a losing streak again for another 166days! phew thank god for that! I should expect a day like this twice a year, there you go I feel better now :-)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Hmm crap backtesting over the same period is showing quite a few missed "live" trades, adverse selection... which probably means my strat is not anywhere near as good as I hoped backtesting was showing...Crap!
Ok, i'm going to keep running it, the only way to know is forward testing....
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I am starting to think anyone thinking of trying to make any money at all from sports trading starting from little experience of sports markets or how they work... STOP NOW!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

41 losers in a row, "Remarkable!" odds of 0.4% of that happening, or about once a year.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Backtest of the last 2 days shows a losing streak of only the last 26 markets, that's 15 short of live results, which is a huge difference in selection. Backtesting is not the way to find a profitable quant strategy, linear regression of data and derived data seems to be the way.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:52 pm
41 losers in a row, "Remarkable!" odds of 0.4% of that happening, or about once a year.
Yes, very unlucky for sure.

SR.png
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

dog bot disabled
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

I understand your frustation Goat,

I had an idea for a new dogbot this morning, I knocked up a rules file for it and ran it in practice mode, I let it run on the next six races and yippee!! all six gave very good returns, not a sniff of a loser. I then let it off the leash, very small stakes, live mode...............lost on every one of the next six races :-(

dogbot disabled!

goodluck all :-)
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