Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:21 am
Kai wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:28 pm
Have you been restricted to posting only in this thread Mr Goat?? I hope not :)
I don't want to bother others with my drivel!
Don't see why not...doesn't stop me.
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Just finished reading this thread and found it great value, As a newbie the most important thing I take from it is, control emotion, tunnel vision don't get drawn into just watching the horse your trading, and not chasing losses. I did this when I started, fortuneatley I was in practice mode and with small stakes so no real damage done. Also bank management, don't increase stakes until your bank meets a certain level, if you are losing money then reduce stakes when you reach certain points in your bank. Why increase your stakes if you are losing money?

Other thing is knowledge of the sport, I was going down the football path but after some advice I will stick to what I know, Horse Racing. By making that simple change my account is heading north at a steady rate and infact went past my 1st pre set bank marker to increase stakes, all with in 2 weeks.

The name of this thread triggered how I will trade racing, I cant do spreadsheets that many have but what I do have is a good knowledge of horses. An example was this week in Aussie racing, Fav $1.89. The first look I got of this runner (on TV) was the jockey wiping it down with a towel, the horse was in a muck lather, the clerk of the course was with it and it was fractious. I layed at $1.95 and got out at $2.28. it took almost all the barrier attendeants to man handle it in. I was so close to just turning this into a bet (my gambling part said do it you know it will lose) but I greened up for a nice result as that was my plan. Horse ran last.

One thing I did notice reading this thread is there are so many ways to achieve the same outcome, method you use makes no difference as long as you get there. I am deffo a subscriber to the "KISS" rule, why complicate things if you don't have too.

So thanks to those that added to this thread, it is helping us Newbies
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Well this month going the same way as the last 11 ...!
Screenshot 2021-07-27 at 14.57.36.png
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Maybe you're not as smart as you thought you were😁
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:49 pm
Maybe you're not as smart as you thought you were😁
I actually think being smart is a hinderance to this game...that's my problem :-)
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Do you mean hindrance? No it's not.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Trader724 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:36 pm
Do you mean hindrance? No it's not.
For all you know I'm a Cambridge scholar on 100k a year just having a play......!
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Ok, have fun.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:41 pm
Ok, have fun.
Thanks, that's why I'm still going...
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:39 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:36 pm
Do you mean hindrance? No it's not.
For all you know I'm a Cambridge scholar on 100k a year just having a play......!
pop this one in the oven and have some fun :) ..

- ready made for gappy markets (doggies or horses etc) : check
-from Dallas finest (originally a servant) now guardian : check
-slice and dice by additional conditions : check

picks up any identical prices in the first 10 runners and then initiate the frog leaping ..

https://forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=58&t=23094

when you have time to spare please share with us what you see....
help those of us with no backtesting set ups .
thanks goat , hope the fun begins and ends well.

identical prices + -1 tick leapfrog GDN file.baf
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

decomez6 wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:23 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:39 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:36 pm
Do you mean hindrance? No it's not.
For all you know I'm a Cambridge scholar on 100k a year just having a play......!
pop this one in the oven and have some fun :) ..

- ready made for gappy markets (doggies or horses etc) : check
-from Dallas finest (originally a servant) now guardian : check
-slice and dice by additional conditions : check

picks up any identical prices in the first 10 runners and then initiate the frog leaping ..

https://forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=58&t=23094

when you have time to spare please share with us what you see....
help those of us with no backtesting set ups .
thanks goat , hope the fun begins and ends well.


identical prices + -1 tick leapfrog GDN file.baf
Hi, thanks, as you say it's a servant not a strategy as such, so needs some thought on how to realize the value..
I'll try and put together a bot to run this on pre race uk horses, assuming any bets that match are then value, I'll green at the off.
See what it shows...
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

as you say it's a servant not a strategy as such, so needs some thought on how to realize the value..
Was originally a servant file but I converted it a guardian file and added more conditions .
- it will search and identify any selections that have identical prices .
- will then try and frog leap , by backing at a favourable price ahead of the current asking price, so always ahead of the que.

NB : it’s only a back file and can be converted into a lay file . And there is no specific reason for choosing identical prices as a trigger point , its only for experimenting .
I ve got more conditions, but I don’t want to complicate things as it becomes harder to adjust if the original file is not well thought out and thoroughly tested . I am hoping it will give a positive expectancy of btwn 2% - 5% (ROI)
And that’s why I left the greening open ended so as to allow an investigation into the extremities ( reds/ greens)
Appreciate your time so ,
Thanks again 👍🏼
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

decomez6 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:18 am
as you say it's a servant not a strategy as such, so needs some thought on how to realize the value..
Was originally a servant file but I converted it a guardian file and added more conditions .
- it will search and identify any selections that have identical prices .
- will then try and frog leap , by backing at a favourable price ahead of the current asking price, so always ahead of the que.

NB : it’s only a back file and can be converted into a lay file . And there is no specific reason for choosing identical prices as a trigger point , its only for experimenting .
I ve got more conditions, but I don’t want to complicate things as it becomes harder to adjust if the original file is not well thought out and thoroughly tested . I am hoping it will give a positive expectancy of btwn 2% - 5% (ROI)
And that’s why I left the greening open ended so as to allow an investigation into the extremities ( reds/ greens)
Appreciate your time so ,
Thanks again 👍🏼
so I put a strategy together for this based on Dallas's post info last night, and ran it on the last weeks worth of uk races, and it didn't fair very well... but it was just leap frog when 3tick gap in any runner in the 2hours before race start. To be honest, not sure where the "edge"/value maybe in this, my assumption was if you get matched then on average based on the assumption "value" is mid-price, then you may have "some value" in that bet.
I'm not sure I quite get your "identical price" extension, and what you mean by that? so if 2 runners are 4.0/4.4, you offer on both at 4.3 ?
Why is two identical advantageoous?
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:35 am
decomez6 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:18 am
as you say it's a servant not a strategy as such, so needs some thought on how to realize the value..
Was originally a servant file but I converted it a guardian file and added more conditions .
- it will search and identify any selections that have identical prices .
- will then try and frog leap , by backing at a favourable price ahead of the current asking price, so always ahead of the que.

NB : it’s only a back file and can be converted into a lay file . And there is no specific reason for choosing identical prices as a trigger point , its only for experimenting .
I ve got more conditions, but I don’t want to complicate things as it becomes harder to adjust if the original file is not well thought out and thoroughly tested . I am hoping it will give a positive expectancy of btwn 2% - 5% (ROI)
And that’s why I left the greening open ended so as to allow an investigation into the extremities ( reds/ greens)
Appreciate your time so ,
Thanks again 👍🏼
so I put a strategy together for this based on Dallas's post info last night, and ran it on the last weeks worth of uk races, and it didn't fair very well... but it was just leap frog when 3tick gap in any runner in the 2hours before race start. To be honest, not sure where the "edge"/value maybe in this, my assumption was if you get matched then on average based on the assumption "value" is mid-price, then you may have "some value" in that bet.
I'm not sure I quite get your "identical price" extension, and what you mean by that? so if 2 runners are 4.0/4.4, you offer on both at 4.3 ?
Why is two identical advantageoous?
with identical prices i mean , any prices that are similar and only differ by +/- a tick . sometimes it will capture more than two runners .
it basically takes the current price of any selection and search if there are any other selections that are trading within the same price e.g
-runner a = price X
-runner b = price X or plus /minus 1 tick

correlation and the and book percent effeciency is the advantage. when one price goes up its exepected that another price will go down especially if they share same price with alternating volume % increase.
the whole idea is to drill down two or more selections , compare them to a point where there is very little difference between the two .that way comparing oranges and oranges .
in this case i only used price to compare them and help mark my entry point .i have other criteria , but i always start with one and build in more as i go.
i can also choose to lay one and back the other but i prefer to back the selections and see how it goes. as for now iam trying to avoid a fat finger on a layed horse .
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

decomez6 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:52 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:35 am
decomez6 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:18 am

Was originally a servant file but I converted it a guardian file and added more conditions .
- it will search and identify any selections that have identical prices .
- will then try and frog leap , by backing at a favourable price ahead of the current asking price, so always ahead of the que.

NB : it’s only a back file and can be converted into a lay file . And there is no specific reason for choosing identical prices as a trigger point , its only for experimenting .
I ve got more conditions, but I don’t want to complicate things as it becomes harder to adjust if the original file is not well thought out and thoroughly tested . I am hoping it will give a positive expectancy of btwn 2% - 5% (ROI)
And that’s why I left the greening open ended so as to allow an investigation into the extremities ( reds/ greens)
Appreciate your time so ,
Thanks again 👍🏼
so I put a strategy together for this based on Dallas's post info last night, and ran it on the last weeks worth of uk races, and it didn't fair very well... but it was just leap frog when 3tick gap in any runner in the 2hours before race start. To be honest, not sure where the "edge"/value maybe in this, my assumption was if you get matched then on average based on the assumption "value" is mid-price, then you may have "some value" in that bet.
I'm not sure I quite get your "identical price" extension, and what you mean by that? so if 2 runners are 4.0/4.4, you offer on both at 4.3 ?
Why is two identical advantageoous?
with identical prices i mean , any prices that are similar and only differ by +/- a tick . sometimes it will capture more than two runners .
it basically takes the current price of any selection and search if there are any other selections that are trading within the same price e.g
-runner a = price X
-runner b = price X or plus /minus 1 tick

correlation and the and book percent effeciency is the advantage. when one price goes up its exepected that another price will go down especially if they share same price with alternating volume % increase.
the whole idea is to drill down two or more selections , compare them to a point where there is very little difference between the two .that way comparing oranges and oranges .
in this case i only used price to compare them and help mark my entry point .i have other criteria , but i always start with one and build in more as i go.
i can also choose to lay one and back the other but i prefer to back the selections and see how it goes. as for now iam trying to avoid a fat finger on a layed horse .
I see, although not sure I quite see the edge in just runner a & b, as runner c especially if it is the "fav" could push both a & b in the same direction...?
I can see the "value" in offering a back at the top of a 3tick gap, although it's going to be quite a small edge,eg:
cur lay: 4.4
4.3 - <back offer here gives you a 1 tick edge!>
4.2 - <likely current neutral value>
4.1 -
cur back: 4.0

If you ping me a more detailed "strategy" description I can put it into a Flumine strategy and run a full backtest for you, if that is of use to you?
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