Brilliant... .goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:51 amI see, although not sure I quite see the edge in just runner a & b, as runner c especially if it is the "fav" could push both a & b in the same direction...?decomez6 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:52 amwith identical prices i mean , any prices that are similar and only differ by +/- a tick . sometimes it will capture more than two runners .goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:35 am
so I put a strategy together for this based on Dallas's post info last night, and ran it on the last weeks worth of uk races, and it didn't fair very well... but it was just leap frog when 3tick gap in any runner in the 2hours before race start. To be honest, not sure where the "edge"/value maybe in this, my assumption was if you get matched then on average based on the assumption "value" is mid-price, then you may have "some value" in that bet.
I'm not sure I quite get your "identical price" extension, and what you mean by that? so if 2 runners are 4.0/4.4, you offer on both at 4.3 ?
Why is two identical advantageoous?
it basically takes the current price of any selection and search if there are any other selections that are trading within the same price e.g
-runner a = price X
-runner b = price X or plus /minus 1 tick
correlation and the and book percent effeciency is the advantage. when one price goes up its exepected that another price will go down especially if they share same price with alternating volume % increase.
the whole idea is to drill down two or more selections , compare them to a point where there is very little difference between the two .that way comparing oranges and oranges .
in this case i only used price to compare them and help mark my entry point .i have other criteria , but i always start with one and build in more as i go.
i can also choose to lay one and back the other but i prefer to back the selections and see how it goes. as for now iam trying to avoid a fat finger on a layed horse .
I can see the "value" in offering a back at the top of a 3tick gap, although it's going to be quite a small edge,eg:
cur lay: 4.4
4.3 - <back offer here gives you a 1 tick edge!>
4.2 - <likely current neutral value>
4.1 -
cur back: 4.0
If you ping me a more detailed "strategy" description I can put it into a Flumine strategy and run a full backtest for you, if that is of use to you?
i am thanking you goat !!