Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:51 am
decomez6 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:52 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:35 am


so I put a strategy together for this based on Dallas's post info last night, and ran it on the last weeks worth of uk races, and it didn't fair very well... but it was just leap frog when 3tick gap in any runner in the 2hours before race start. To be honest, not sure where the "edge"/value maybe in this, my assumption was if you get matched then on average based on the assumption "value" is mid-price, then you may have "some value" in that bet.
I'm not sure I quite get your "identical price" extension, and what you mean by that? so if 2 runners are 4.0/4.4, you offer on both at 4.3 ?
Why is two identical advantageoous?
with identical prices i mean , any prices that are similar and only differ by +/- a tick . sometimes it will capture more than two runners .
it basically takes the current price of any selection and search if there are any other selections that are trading within the same price e.g
-runner a = price X
-runner b = price X or plus /minus 1 tick

correlation and the and book percent effeciency is the advantage. when one price goes up its exepected that another price will go down especially if they share same price with alternating volume % increase.
the whole idea is to drill down two or more selections , compare them to a point where there is very little difference between the two .that way comparing oranges and oranges .
in this case i only used price to compare them and help mark my entry point .i have other criteria , but i always start with one and build in more as i go.
i can also choose to lay one and back the other but i prefer to back the selections and see how it goes. as for now iam trying to avoid a fat finger on a layed horse .
I see, although not sure I quite see the edge in just runner a & b, as runner c especially if it is the "fav" could push both a & b in the same direction...?
I can see the "value" in offering a back at the top of a 3tick gap, although it's going to be quite a small edge,eg:
cur lay: 4.4
4.3 - <back offer here gives you a 1 tick edge!>
4.2 - <likely current neutral value>
4.1 -
cur back: 4.0

If you ping me a more detailed "strategy" description I can put it into a Flumine strategy and run a full backtest for you, if that is of use to you?
Brilliant... :) .
i am thanking you goat !!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:51 am
I can see the "value" in offering a back at the top of a 3tick gap.
I think you can drop the bunnies from 'value' now. :)

Re your flumine backtest, you'll need to build a polling cycle that simulates how decomez6 will be processing these in Guardian. Flumine will take each market change message as it arrives, Guardian will only consider them as it tests each market in turn. Timing is so important it's unlikely you'll get any results that can be reproduced in Guardian without a lot of work trying to simulate how it works. A backtest looking for small margins is only meaningful if it has as few differences as possible from the intended method of execution, you'll be testing using a 17ms price delay and then with 50 markets loaded Guardian will only consider them once a second. Offering to run tests for people is nice but you're misleading them if you suggest what you've done in your test and what they'll do in execution have any bearing on each other.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So August is going to be the winning month! i've got a strategy now I reckon should be positive over a month. It tested me today with 13 losing markets out of 17 ! Although theoretical loss rate would be 7or8, so not a huge variance.
Fingers crossed for August !
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Happy 🥇 birthday 🎂
8C90C9EE-7AE2-48BE-85B0-68056597FCD1.gif
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

decomez6 wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:40 am
Happy 🥇 birthday 🎂

8C90C9EE-7AE2-48BE-85B0-68056597FCD1.gif
Thank you decomez !

It's been a long year this thread, both on and off the trading field.

I'd just like to thank all those who have contributed to this thread, which I know has not just helped me but many others.
Literally far too many names to mentioned, but all of you thank you, it may not appear that you've helped me, but I am progressing. A key aspect I am now learning is not to take it too seriously, as it will stress you out and you will break! Mental Health is very important.
So roll on "year 2"... :-)
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:06 am
decomez6 wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:40 am
Happy 🥇 birthday 🎂

8C90C9EE-7AE2-48BE-85B0-68056597FCD1.gif
Thank you decomez !

It's been a long year this thread, both on and off the trading field.

I'd just like to thank all those who have contributed to this thread, which I know has not just helped me but many others.
Literally far too many names to mentioned, but all of you thank you, it may not appear that you've helped me, but I am progressing. A key aspect I am now learning is not to take it too seriously, as it will stress you out and you will break! Mental Health is very important.
So roll on "year 2"... :-)
Good luck with your 2nd year.

Have you ever looked at the babypips website? I can’t recommend it enough. So simple and helps massively with the mindset.

The free education side is related to FX trading. However, if you get it. IMO you are halfway there.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

New bot going "live" for August, contains two strategies, below is backtest over June and July, i'm positive for August :-)
Screenshot 2021-08-02 at 21.50.50.png
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jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:51 pm
New bot going "live" for August, contains two strategies, below is backtest over June and July, i'm positive for August :-)
Screenshot 2021-08-02 at 21.50.50.png
There maybe a bit of back value in there ;)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Good 1st week of August for "DualBot":
Screenshot 2021-08-07 at 20.28.40.png
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:30 pm
Good 1st week of August for "DualBot":
Screenshot 2021-08-07 at 20.28.40.png
Nice work :!:
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:30 pm
Good 1st week of August for "DualBot":
Screenshot 2021-08-07 at 20.28.40.png
Well done Goat

I hope its the first of many!
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The Silk Run
Posts: 902
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

Concur. Hope G has reached a turning-point, and we witness some consistency progressing forward /
VWD - G ;)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I hate to be the voice of reason but I'd love to know how the 3 previous posters could say this was good work etc based on just a bottom line number?
That's pretty much the last measure of performance over a week as I'm absolutely sure you all know.

I hope it's good, goat68 deserves a boost and I amongst many others have spent hours and hours helping so we're invested, but before the usual crowd jump in and say it's great (as they did before on this thread) then what are you basing the congratulations on?
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

The first time I had a profitable week with automation I was very proud of myself. I'm sure Goat feels the same even though he knows there's still a lot of work to be done but as this is the first time I've seen him post a weekly profit like this (I might have missed one) imo, he deserves a pat on the back.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 10:49 pm
I hate to be the voice of reason but I'd love to know how the 3 previous posters could say this was good work etc based on just a bottom line number?
That's pretty much the last measure of performance over a week as I'm absolutely sure you all know.

I hope it's good, goat68 deserves a boost and I amongst many others have spent hours and hours helping so we're invested, but before the usual crowd jump in and say it's great (as they did before on this thread) then what are you basing the congratulations on?
I'm glad you came back to forum... a true sense of realism!

Off topic, but how is the no smoking going? Personally, I hope you're not smoking, you're more to the point without the fags.
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