Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3199
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

PapaShango wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:39 am
So you got a bot that wins on 42 of the last 43 races, though you decide to turn it off mid way through the racing, just in case of an outage ?!
Yep, I prefer to supervise it for now.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:53 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:30 am
goat68 wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:57 pm

Screenshot_28.jpg
I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png

Shaun, you've tried to help me a lot and thank you, however I think there's one lesson we can both learn here that maybe trying to fit one person's trading method to another may not work as the method has to fit that person, i've tried your ideas but failed...
i'm sure your ideas will fit other people
you had a backfall again? was looking like breakthrough on the greyhounds previous month?
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:09 am
PapaShango wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:39 am
So you got a bot that wins on 42 of the last 43 races, though you decide to turn it off mid way through the racing, just in case of an outage ?!
Yep, I prefer to supervise it for now.
Love it!
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:57 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:37 pm
Trying out some In-Play trades, results for the last 2 days. Fully automated, adapting one of Dallas's shared IP files.



Page1.png




Page2.png



Page3.png
Must admit, I half thought about IP yesterday as close to calling day on pre-race, it seems too hard
You have more certainty with IP...

A winner, a place and losers!

Just study how a horse runs.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6068
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:53 am
I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png
Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:45 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:53 am
I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png
Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.
Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!
arch4672
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:40 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:57 pm
Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:45 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:53 am
I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png
Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.
Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!
Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

arch4672 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:57 pm
Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:45 pm


Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.
Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!
Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6068
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
arch4672 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:57 pm


Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!
Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
Yes, but you are actually the one that chooses your staking plan and determines your potential losses in advance, so can't exactly act surprised later or pin the blame on borrowed ideas etc since it's so easy to botch the execution part.

If you find the losses/lessons too expensive, the question is did you really have to pay £300 there last month, or could you learn the same things for like £30 instead? So try to find some answers and adjust accordingly if needed etc.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:34 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
arch4672 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:05 pm


Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
Yes, but you are actually the one that chooses your staking plan and determines your potential losses in advance, so can't exactly act surprised later or pin the blame on borrowed ideas etc since it's so easy to botch the execution part.

If you find the losses/lessons too expensive, the question is did you really have to pay £300 there last month, or could you learn the same things for like £30 instead? So try to find some answers and adjust accordingly if needed etc.
I find I the edge dissappears "hedging" because the hedge bet is -EV. And I can't go below min Betfair bet size
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
arch4672 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:57 pm


Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!
Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:39 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
arch4672 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:05 pm


Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.
Sorry I wasn't clear, I am that's £10 back an lay liability, so at odds 11.0, i'd back £1 or lay £1
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6068
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

I know it's an unpopular opinion but if you really feel you're getting nowhere you might as well pay for a concrete trading course instead, would cost less and at least you'd know which trading concepts still work etc, worst case you have a solid reference point to build on. Obviously big shortcuts exist and not everyone is selling crap, there are low-key traders that offer stupid value for whatever reason.

Because ultimately it doesn't matter whether you pay £300 to the market or to someone directly, at the end of the day your money goes to real traders just the same.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:39 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm


Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.
Sorry I wasn't clear, I am that's £10 back an lay liability, so at odds 11.0, i'd back £1 or lay £1
OK, thought it sounded a bit big! :D
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6068
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:02 pm
Because ultimately it doesn't matter whether you pay £300 to the market or to someone directly, at the end of the day your money goes to real traders just the same.
But of course our ego feels much better if those transactions are not made directly, but via the market instead :D 🙄 Despite pure logic!
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