Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The last few days i've been backtesting some Dutching strategies, I was doing some analysis and testing on a 1month sample, managed to get a selection process that made some profit over that 1 month, then tried it on 5months worth, -£456 !! Tried all the sorts of selections processes I've read about and some I made up:
- Various combinations of selections by Hcap, Mdn, Nov, ...
- dutch % 40-65
- number of selections or % of runners
- selections top 40-65 %
- then tried 2/3/4thfav-> selections, which was better. This worked out best ie.the value variation in the bottom half of the field showed more value potential.
- by min/max price

It does make me think any strategy that is widely talked about on YouTube, Blogs, etc.. is not worth it long term, eg.Dutching, B2L, L2B, etc..!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

It's nice and quite fun that i've got a scripted setup for testing these ideas quickly, which means I can analyse and plough through quite a lot of ideas, especially on a Spot request EC2 c5 large machine!
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

“trading, what I see”

.. what do I see?, a lot more than I used to, I see the market these days as a kettle on a stove, imagining the kettle full of volume not water, sooner or later the kettle will sing, it’s at that plus point something could, (not should) happen 📉📈
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Korattt wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:26 pm
“trading, what I see”

.. what do I see?, a lot more than I used to, I see the market these days as a kettle on a stove, imagining the kettle full of volume not water, sooner or later the kettle will sing, it’s at that plus point something could, (not should) happen 📉📈
You're basically saying wait for the "opportunity" ?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Korattt wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:26 pm
“trading, what I see”

.. what do I see?, a lot more than I used to, I see the market these days as a kettle on a stove, imagining the kettle full of volume not water, sooner or later the kettle will sing, it’s at that plus point something could, (not should) happen 📉📈
So dissecting this a bit, so in essence Dutch when you detect "value breadth" on a set of runners.. not sure if that is even possible?!
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:35 pm
Korattt wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:26 pm
“trading, what I see”

.. what do I see?, a lot more than I used to, I see the market these days as a kettle on a stove, imagining the kettle full of volume not water, sooner or later the kettle will sing, it’s at that plus point something could, (not should) happen 📉📈
You're basically saying wait for the "opportunity" ?
exactlement, not quite the same explanation but for me very similar:

https://youtu.be/EsKmIuK0SGM
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Korattt wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:35 pm
Korattt wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:26 pm
“trading, what I see”

.. what do I see?, a lot more than I used to, I see the market these days as a kettle on a stove, imagining the kettle full of volume not water, sooner or later the kettle will sing, it’s at that plus point something could, (not should) happen 📉📈
You're basically saying wait for the "opportunity" ?
exactlement, not quite the same explanation but for me very similar:

https://youtu.be/EsKmIuK0SGM
yeah, nice reference, which is obviously right, lack of in-market experience and just "knowing" when that opportunity is there takes a long time......
Difficult one, I now basically have about 8pm-midnight or there abouts to play with my "little hobby" (as the Mrs calls it!), and there's not much quality horse racing then. Although, that does beg the though, maybe I could turn to football, as that is on then! but I hate football !!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So far i've played to my strengths, "programming" and "IT" skills, but i'm missing the butter&jam to the toast....
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

I basically have about 8pm-midnight or there abouts to play with my "little hobby" (as the Mrs calls it!),
I can think of better pet names, tell ya Mrs! 🤣🤣
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Simple, compelling and comfortably appealing strategies are typically wrong.....
Yep, go with that, Dutching, b2l, l2b,... at least the way the crowd and i trade them...
agog
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:55 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

agog wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm

I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching
I think it’s fair to say that it’s useful in pre off horse racing trading for everyone to have their own set of rules to abide by, not just to open a position on thinking what look likes drifting or steaming or even a having a hunch if it’s a suitable market to scalp, it’s only through experience & heaps of blood, sweat & tears that these rules can be made useful & learned to said individual, watching countless hours of markets is strongly advised.
andy28
Posts: 344
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

agog wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
I agree, I watched the toaster video Peter did and I understand what he is saying, but if you haven't mastered that then the chances of getting perfect toast must be neigh on impossible if you tried to automate that process somehow

I am sure it can be automated but you need to follow the process and not try and short circuit it
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

it’s all about the volume & the effect on whatever runner you’re looking at entering a position on, that said you need to know what effect the volume is having on the other runners you’re not looking at whilst still looking at them if you see what I mean, yes it is difficult but not half as difficult when you’ve been looking at the markets for a while, it does get easier
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