Indeed, a ways to go still. The learning never stops really since the markets evolve over time, but I would say that obtaining a bit of knowledge is the easier part compared to actually utilizing it.
Keep learning Goaty
Trading What I see !?
I've being doing some data analysis and backtesting on UK horses pre-race, using good old horse and jockey form, and modelling of sorts. It's a lot more difficult than dogs...! But unsurprisingly whatever I try based on previous horse & jockey form, ends up breakeven at best, even with the best execution I can find.
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Don't get hung up on finding something unique. There's plenty to be had just doing the same as lots of other people because there's always enough disagreement and varying objectives in the ecosystems. The day you see markets that are absolutely static for hours is the day this game dies and that's never going to happen. So long as markets move there's money to be had.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:21 pmI've being doing some data analysis and backtesting on UK horses pre-race, using good old horse and jockey form, and modelling of sorts. It's a lot more difficult than dogs...! But unsurprisingly whatever I try based on previous horse & jockey form, ends up breakeven at best, even with the best execution I can find.
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
Just because you can't find much doesn't mean it's not there. Maybe you're still missing something, maybe you're still doing something wrong or underestimating certain subtleties? That's hard to gauge when there's nobody actually seeing what we're doing. Sadly the bottom line is that if we fail we've got nobody or nothing to blame but ourselves and that's actually the hardest part.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I'm not in this for fun, "fun" is what this tedious slog pays for. And Lidl don't pay you for sitting on your arse doing nothing which a good bot can do.
i'm trying all sorts of weird things at the minute, here's my latest:ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:56 pmDon't get hung up on finding something unique. There's plenty to be had just doing the same as lots of other people because there's always enough disagreement and varying objectives in the ecosystems. The day you see markets that are absolutely static for hours is the day this game dies and that's never going to happen. So long as markets move there's money to be had.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:21 pmI've being doing some data analysis and backtesting on UK horses pre-race, using good old horse and jockey form, and modelling of sorts. It's a lot more difficult than dogs...! But unsurprisingly whatever I try based on previous horse & jockey form, ends up breakeven at best, even with the best execution I can find.
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
Just because you can't find much doesn't mean it's not there. Maybe you're still missing something, maybe you're still doing something wrong or underestimating certain subtleties? That's hard to gauge when there's nobody actually seeing what we're doing. Sadly the bottom line is that if we fail we've got nobody or nothing to blame but ourselves and that's actually the hardest part.
Created a jockey performance rating based on previous races for the jockey, for the same race types
Compare rating across the given race jockeys
Find the jockey with the highest rating
Once market volume gets above a suitable trigger level back the best performance rated jockey
Hedge at off
My theory here is a good proportion of the crowd will back the "best driver"/jockey!
yeah, but we know it's very hard to predict price movement
I'm trying to find those setups that slightly on average go one way rather than the other!
Goat look into breeding, look at sire stats and damsire, that can help, Example is the Melbourne Cup winner's sire is Zed and he has the fav in this weekends Wellington Cup (2m), the further they go the better they get, also they love wet tracks. His Service fee was just $500. Yet you won't see any of his winning too much over 1200m on a firm track. I am sure it will be the same in the UK. But reading up on sires is well worth it.
You will find that some sires produce horses that love the wet and some sires where their off spring won't go on the firm ground. This can be helpful if weather condition change during the day
You will find that some sires produce horses that love the wet and some sires where their off spring won't go on the firm ground. This can be helpful if weather condition change during the day
you have the back testing , also well equipped in the data analysis side of the game.
what are the chances for those of us ,with less time and less testing ?i've found 1 bot that may make £200 a month or £6 a day, LIDL pay £10 for an hour!
i think a longterm breaking even (after commision and all outgoings) is the very least one can hope for . YOU have exceeded that
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
If nobody was making any money and we were all just trading for fun there wouldn't be so many miserable bastards on the forum
£2400 a year for one bot/idea that you don't have to attend 24/7, that sounds pretty good to me
You can re-use a lot of that work to develop another, so it's not like you have to start from nothing.
yeah! will see about that... just peeked at how it's doing today and it's lost -£35 in one trade!! layed Go Black Betty in Newcastle 15:09 at 5.2, hedge at SP at 2.5 !! price slipped from 3.7 at -10seconds to 2.5 at SP
i'm actually not convinced by horse form models in these UK markets, as the opinion is so varied and wide, and just on a single market opinion maybe affected by one particular form item, like George's mother's father's brother's son's son won the Gold Cup....! And then the next race the fav "steams" because Harry is riding it !