Australian racing

The sport of kings.
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JCB
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Anbell wrote:
Sun Sep 18, 2022 3:36 am
JCB wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:11 pm
Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:37 am


Thanks. Actually I dont think TT+ is anywhere near BSP. I think you need top fluc thrown in as well.
I'll come back to you tomorrow with some concrete numbers but I can assure you it's true (obviously it's commission sensitive but even at the lowest rates BO4/TT+ beats BSP on favoured runners).

Surprisingly enough including top fluc doesn't make a huge difference. It's obviously better to take Best of the Best if you can get it but it's not as much of an advantage as you might think (I was definitely surprised).

There's an article here, not particularly well written but it's reasonably close to the numbers I've collected.

www.championbets.com.au/resources/getti ... dend-type/
Great! Thanks. I appreciate it.

(I didnt do a full analysis but had a good look over the past week and TT+ seemed to fall short)
I'll add a caveat that carnival time/group racing can skew the data a bit. Obviously the bigger tote pools tend to reduce volatility (and the larger pools also tend to carry over to the lower quality racing being held on the same day). On a typical midweek you might see 3 dividends like $5.20, $5.80 and $7.20 (usually QLD or NSW being the outlier) but a Group 1 is far more likely to basically be identical across all 3. TT+ being superior to BSP at a certain price point is heavily contingent on these 'outlier' dividends which you just aren't going to see in 6 and 7 figure pools.
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megarain
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Blocked from UK
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Euler
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Nice to see the evening racing at Moonee Valley.
Anbell
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Group1 in 75 mins
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Note grand final tomorrow.
Anbell
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gazuty wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:24 pm
Note grand final tomorrow.
Enjoy and good luck
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Euler
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gazuty wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:24 pm
Note grand final tomorrow.
Excuse the ignorance, but what's that?
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Euler
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Anbell
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Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:11 pm
gazuty wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:24 pm
Note grand final tomorrow.
Excuse the ignorance, but what's that?
Final match of the local football season, hence no Melbourne racing. Something like 120% of the national population watches the match, so horse markets can behave weirdly
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Euler
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Thanks, that's filled out my knowledge a bit more.

I saw the card looked weak when I first looked at the markets, but didn't know why. Always performed weakly as well, so that explains it.
Anbell
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Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:28 am
Thanks, that's filled out my knowledge a bit more.

I saw the card looked weak when I first looked at the markets, but didn't know why. Always performed weakly as well, so that explains it.
There is some group1 racing at Sandown today/Sunday
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Euler
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Y, I traded it. Love this time of year and the build up to the MC.
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gazuty
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Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:11 pm
gazuty wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:24 pm
Note grand final tomorrow.
Excuse the ignorance, but what's that?
Apologies for the slow reply, but I spent a small fortune to buy tickets and travel to the match with my son - and our team won very easily in the end so it was an amazing experience.
Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:39 am
Final match of the local football season, hence no Melbourne racing. Something like 120% of the national population watches the match, so horse markets can behave weirdly
To add to Anbell's comments, think of it this way, after the "home and away" seaon (although it is 22 matches and not the full 34 that would be required for complete home and away between the 18 teams) the top 8 teams are then thrown in to an FA Cup type knock out (although in the first week there is a second chance for the losers of the matches between the top 4 teams) - if any of that makes sense. Notwithstanding if your team completes the 22 matches on top of the table, no Australian rules supporter really cares about that. It is all about what happens on the "last Saturday in September".
Euler wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:51 am
Y, I traded it. Love this time of year and the build up to the MC.
Yes, spring is in the air, football finals and G1 racing.
deestar
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Anyone know if there was an issue with the settlement of R5 from Belmont this morning? I had some voided bets. Thanks
deestar
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deestar wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:40 am
Anyone know if there was an issue with the settlement of R5 from Belmont this morning? I had some voided bets. Thanks
Failed to suspend at the off apparently. Historically unusual for AUS compared to UK but i think this is the third I've seen in the last couple of weeks. Hopefully the UK suspend bod didn't get an overseas secondment!
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