Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

The sport of kings.
stueytrader
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WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:10 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:16 pm
WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:25 pm


Well done on the good run, Stuey.

Out of interest how many trades have you made during that two month period and what odds ranges are you trading in?
I don't have a specific odds range, so basically happy to use the full range (though obviously adjust staking accordingly).
In terms of number of trades, its around 700 selections in this current run. Obviously I know that is only a relatively small sample in the bigger picture, hence my initial post too. But what was interesting is my returns were far better over that 700 sample than I would ever expect from 700 selections traded.
The reason I asked was that I had a terrible time between 1st June and 31st July! :oops:

I don't have time to analyse all races run but the handicaps I did look at gave the following returns for the backer to level stakes (with 2% commission deducted) covering all horses with BSPs between 2.00 and 3.99:

Bets: 547, Win 162 (30%), Returns 485.68, Loss -61.32, -11.21%

All similar cases that I have records for show:

Bets: 13260, Win 4403 (33%), Returns 13286.53, Profit +26.53, +0.20%.

After 2% commission, we'd expect to show an overall loss of 2% so the long-term numbers are punching slightly above their weight but the June/July figures are significantly out of sync with normal expectation.

It seems as though it was a good couple of months for the layers of short-priced horses and a pretty tough time for backers. I hope these numbers are of interest.

Good luck for the future, Stuey. Cheers!
Those stats are interesing, thanks - though less likely to be directly linked to my recent success, as I don't specifically focus on favourites or near favourites exclusively (though some are favourites I lay and trade). I should have also added, a fair bit of my laying is place markets too.
stueytrader
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Superkal wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:51 pm
Hey, I completely understand where you're coming from. I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.

So for example last year, I was backing the favourite on hcap hrd races more than 2m in length. I would back the favourite when the price is stable within 4 minutes to pre-off. 8 out of 10 times the price would shorten and I'd profit.. but I got greedy and increased my stake and also took it into play.

Eventually, this 'edge' stopped working. I did the same backing the 2nd favorite and again I did well in short periods then the same thing happened.

It's been a frustrating journey where you lose cofidentence even with there's some glimmer of hope in the short term.

Now, what seems to be working for me, relatively, and it's been recently over the past few weeks is to dutch the first 3 favourites in a race with more than 6 horses and there's no clear favourite. You'd still have to be more specific with the choice of race type, but yeah, this seems, simple and potentially long term strategy but I'm not getting my hopes up high just yet..
There are certainly natural fluctuations - so I'm hoping I am not simply within one of those patches. Time is a best test I suppose to see on that!
stueytrader
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:19 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:00 pm
I do find that reading around you can see a lot in trading/betting about how to approach downswings in form and returns, but there's less that considers how you should approach such purple patches.
Imo ideally completely ignore both. But tbh you only truly do that once you've seen a dozen boom and bust cycles and know for certain neither are the norm. Books can tell you that but it's experience that makes you believe it enough to do it.

I was thinking about your situation and because you have some straight bets that skew things, maybe do your accounts as if you'd closed everything at sp. That's what I do and people I know who mix things up a bit. Only works pre-race but worth doing. It's surprising how your actual £ tracks that std 'sp close' figure and you have the benefit of knowing if you're ahead of it or behind, so you can expect a pull back or good patch. That's the figure that keeps me sane rather than the actual £.
The first part sounds a little like the Kipling poem I think - treating those two 'imposters' as such :)
I do take something of that approach, hence my initial posting here, rather than ordering my Ferrari just yet! I may look at those analysis types or similar yes, thanks for the idea.
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Derek27
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It's good to be winning again. :D

I've just had the opposite 'problem'. Dreadful first three days of the week/month where I couldn't seem to get anything right. One of those periods where it feels like the gods are against you or you've upset them. Just as well I'm atheist. :)
stueytrader
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:31 pm
It's good to be winning again. :D

I've just had the opposite 'problem'. Dreadful first three days of the week/month where I couldn't seem to get anything right. One of those periods where it feels like the gods are against you or you've upset them. Just as well I'm atheist. :)
It is certainly welcome (should add since my OP the days inbetween have also been very good to me, so for now fingers crossed...)

I'm certainly no stranger to those kind of bad runs too, which can all too easily affect your approach and processes in trading. The funny thing is I think in general in trading we are aware of losing streaks and their possible effects on our efficiency, but I think much less aware how a very good run affects the whole process.

Hope things pick up for you soon Derek!
stueytrader
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Well thought I'd add an update on this, if it may be of interest to others.

As many may have predicted I did experience a very negative period of results since last posted. But oddly, that did not persist for too long, and following period has basically returned to the 'golden' streak again.

I must admit I did feel all the negative premonitions coming at me to haunt me for a time as my results started to nosedive, but altered a couple of things slightly, and it's been a great run of selections since then.

I also must admit I may have fallen somewhat into some traps of 'slack' in my processes due to the golden run, that caused my backslide, ironically not long after this previous post on here. But, I think I realised that was happening and managed to correct it - so far.....

I will continue to assess how I'm operating from here, in relation to the levels of success.
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Derek27
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I had a miserable week two weeks ago (compounded by Bumfair not putting markets in play) but had an excellent week last week. These ups and downs would have concerned me more when I was trading racing but when you're trading the o/u markets relying on goals coming in or not coming in, even when you have an edge there's a lot more randomness in the results, so I've got used to looking longer term and not worrying too much when I hit a bad patch.

Keep up the good work. :)
stueytrader
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 4:30 pm
I had a miserable week two weeks ago (compounded by Bumfair not putting markets in play) but had an excellent week last week. These ups and downs would have concerned me more when I was trading racing but when you're trading the o/u markets relying on goals coming in or not coming in, even when you have an edge there's a lot more randomness in the results, so I've got used to looking longer term and not worrying too much when I hit a bad patch.

Keep up the good work. :)
Cheers Derek - yes, personally I've always found football trading more random than horses, so that would add to the potential for streaks of results I suppose.
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Kai
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 4:20 pm
As many may have predicted I did experience a very negative period of results since last posted. But oddly, that did not persist for too long, and following period has basically returned to the 'golden' streak again.
Sounds like you hit a new plateau, well done. We're not all useless at learning past the age of 25, our trading ability does increase over time with enough practice.

It's probably more productive to worry about the market shifting and limiting your opportunities than things like false dawns etc.
stueytrader
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Kai wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:58 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 4:20 pm
As many may have predicted I did experience a very negative period of results since last posted. But oddly, that did not persist for too long, and following period has basically returned to the 'golden' streak again.
Sounds like you hit a new plateau, well done. We're not all useless at learning past the age of 25, our trading ability does increase over time with enough practice.

It's probably more productive to worry about the market shifting and limiting your opportunities than things like false dawns etc.
Just on a related side note, this calender year has so far been my most successful year in trading/punting that I have had for 20 years. So, yes, I agree it's never too late to improve and learn!
Though I do wish I'd learned some of the things I do now, about 20 years ago.... ;)
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Kai
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 6:12 pm
I agree it's never too late to improve and learn!
Though I do wish I'd learned some of the things I do now, about 20 years ago.... ;)
Easy to think that but where's the fun in that ;) As you know there's no satisfaction without a struggle first, if you welcome a bit of frustration and turn most of it info fascination you can push through it faster. Looking at the bright side comes with its own set of perks.

Despite all the dwindling market volume, forum activity and affordability issues etc there's still no reason why your trajectory curve can't turn upwards.
stueytrader
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Cheers again Kai, for the positive vibes too which also helps I find (though in moderation not overconfidence).

Thought I'd add a further update, if of interest.

Times since my last post on here have been somewhat more varied, but overall still positive. I did hit one patch that was a larger downswing that lasted a couple of weeks. Must admit I felt like it was going to start returning all my profits gained at one point if it continued that way. But, it didn't persist and gains started to roll back again. I did take a pause in all my trading for a day, which turned the path back to positive once again. I think that was key.

So, in summary for latest period I'd say not quite as 'golden', but not a downswing or loss of positive returns overall, and I'm still feeling very good about this year.
Anbell
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stueytrader wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:06 am
Cheers again Kai, for the positive vibes too which also helps I find (though in moderation not overconfidence).

Thought I'd add a further update, if of interest.

Times since my last post on here have been somewhat more varied, but overall still positive. I did hit one patch that was a larger downswing that lasted a couple of weeks. Must admit I felt like it was going to start returning all my profits gained at one point if it continued that way. But, it didn't persist and gains started to roll back again. I did take a pause in all my trading for a day, which turned the path back to positive once again. I think that was key.

So, in summary for latest period I'd say not quite as 'golden', but not a downswing or loss of positive returns overall, and I'm still feeling very good about this year.
Good to hear
worldplaywithangel
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stueytrader wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:06 am
Cheers again Kai, for the positive vibes too which also helps I find (though in moderation not overconfidence).

Thought I'd add a further update, if of interest.

Times since my last post on here have been somewhat more varied, but overall still positive. I did hit one patch that was a larger downswing that lasted a couple of weeks. Must admit I felt like it was going to start returning all my profits gained at one point if it continued that way. But, it didn't persist and gains started to roll back again. I did take a pause in all my trading for a day, which turned the path back to positive once again. I think that was key.

So, in summary for latest period I'd say not quite as 'golden', but not a downswing or loss of positive returns overall, and I'm still feeling very good about this year.
I'm reading your posts with interest as I can very much relate.. I have been insane last 8 months trying to master horse race trading. I'm coming home 2 AM and start reading about trading in my bet. I had a break then these past 3 weeks suddenly I just increase and increase my profits. I was waiting to blow my bank but I can sustain profits! 70 quid in 3 weeks :D

But I feel the same way as you, I'm just waiting for it all to be taken away from me, destroy my soul, hurt me so much I even feel it physically I just can't take another fall, as I have had several... But I take pauses and get my mind straight before I start trading again. I try shut down my brain and just apathetically trade like a robot... and it works I am getting results!

Can I ask how long have you been trading and are you able to get profits?
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

worldplaywithangel wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:42 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:06 am
Cheers again Kai, for the positive vibes too which also helps I find (though in moderation not overconfidence).

Thought I'd add a further update, if of interest.

Times since my last post on here have been somewhat more varied, but overall still positive. I did hit one patch that was a larger downswing that lasted a couple of weeks. Must admit I felt like it was going to start returning all my profits gained at one point if it continued that way. But, it didn't persist and gains started to roll back again. I did take a pause in all my trading for a day, which turned the path back to positive once again. I think that was key.

So, in summary for latest period I'd say not quite as 'golden', but not a downswing or loss of positive returns overall, and I'm still feeling very good about this year.
I'm reading your posts with interest as I can very much relate.. I have been insane last 8 months trying to master horse race trading. I'm coming home 2 AM and start reading about trading in my bet. I had a break then these past 3 weeks suddenly I just increase and increase my profits. I was waiting to blow my bank but I can sustain profits! 70 quid in 3 weeks :D

But I feel the same way as you, I'm just waiting for it all to be taken away from me, destroy my soul, hurt me so much I even feel it physically I just can't take another fall, as I have had several... But I take pauses and get my mind straight before I start trading again. I try shut down my brain and just apathetically trade like a robot... and it works I am getting results!

Can I ask how long have you been trading and are you able to get profits?
Thanks for your thoughts on this issue. Glad to see your comparison to the effect of progress on your views about trading and future success too.
I've been trading in different ways probably about 15 years or so - though before that I was mostly just a standard punter in betting too. I've been the most profitable in this current year, though I did have a year about 14 years ago that was possibly about as good (with many variable years in between).
This current year is still going well - though yet again, I have recently been through both downturn and upswing periods - thankfully very good upswing again to correct for a poor period of around 2 weeks. My last 2 weeks are nearly at the earlier peak levels of returns. Once again, taking breaks during a downswing has been fairly crucial I believe.
Hope it's going well for you too.
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