My trading strategy critique please!

The sport of kings.
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DarrenB
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:18 pm

Ok so at the moment, I trade about 3 mins out and I check the true form pace and prediction map. If I find a horse with top pace and it features in the finishing predictions and it gets a mention on the tips, I put a trade on. I also cross reference the racing tv pace map.
I place a £10 back trade that also lays a 12% bet with greening for a profit of around £1 min. I keep the bet.
Now, I hope that it will complete before in play but because I've done my homework, most of the time I know it will fly out on the off because of its pace rating and complete my trade. This has worked quite well HOWEVER, every now and then im getting my wins wiped out by the odd unexpected, im sure you have all had that pain lol. Im hitting the hedge button like crazy and no joy due to in play volatility.
My question is two fold, should I keep going and refine my chosen races etc or should I focus more on pre off without going in play and build my skill in that discipline.
I know it's a big question but I'd really like and respect you views.
Darren.
DarrenB
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:18 pm

This PW video is kinda me...
https://youtu.be/kUd7bcjmcPk
Win most races, go in play and lose big...climb the mountain to break even, rinse and repeat!
I'm an idiot, I should know better and watch more PW videos... ironically, I've watched most of them but this escaped me...
Viva PW. Long may he prosper lol
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

I wouldn’t say I’m the best person to say but if you find yourself going in circles the is likely no edge to what your doing. People often say just cut out your errors ect… but it’s not quite that simple in an ever evolving trading world. The market is incredibly efficient and trying to find a way in can be very challenging. I’d suggest sticking to pre race scalping. Peter did do some interesting videos on the football and how to create a price with stats to help you spot value.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Letting bets go inplay will cause a big variance in your results but won't affect your bottom line long term because your hedge bet is unlikely to be at a positive expectation. If you look at your Betfair bet history there's only bets not 'trades' so trading 101 is understanding where, how and if you're giving away value. A missed 0ev bsp hedge then not, 'hammering the hedge button' in-running and taking any lousy price, then definately yes. If you understand betting you understand trading and it's all a lot easier.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

The unknown/incomplete information is that a horse might miss a break or connections might be trying a different tactic compared to what's already publicly known. Those things are out of your control and will likely cause a loss.

Take a look at your records and check the distances on the flat. You may find it's the sprint races where the problems are.

Also, the market may have already factored in the pace style of a horse and the price you have 3 minutes before the off is already too short.

What's the answer I hear you say?

With your research pre-off, maybe focus on races that give you time in-play to see if the pace is as you predicted. This would mean races on the flat over 1 mile and all jump races. This would also mean you may sacrifice a few ticks, but your entry point is made based on confirmation rather than expectation.

The Bet Angel In-Play trader tool is very useful for this approach. Bet placement and visual elements, if you have no pictures, are pretty much near real time as you can get it in todays in-play markets.

https://www.betangel.com/in-play-trader/
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