When you have an odds-on favourite, this can tend to skew the rest of the book, early on. I have seen you can back EW bets on a bookie, then lay off the liability on Betfair.
I just want to make sure I'm mathing it correctly. Is my thinking correct?... you want to lay off on the win market and basically create a net position that just exposes you to the place market part of the bet, as that is where the misspricing is?
If I have an EW bet for £2 @26 (2x£1) with a return of £33.25, how much do I want to lay off on the exchange, £1 for a liability of £31?
EW calculations
Yes, as you can imagine, the odds on the lay side early on for the long shots are like 1000, I've placed resting orders at the odds needed to cancel out the win side should it get hit in-play, might reduce my variance.
Some of the odds were juicy this morning, I got an EW bet on Huntagrove @151 for the 15:05 Galway, same bet on the exchange is about odds of 42 now.
Some of the odds were juicy this morning, I got an EW bet on Huntagrove @151 for the 15:05 Galway, same bet on the exchange is about odds of 42 now.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 4699
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Be careful of a couple of things;
> Bookmakers won't like you taking value EW bets and you risk getting your account strictly limited.
> Bookmakers will reduce the number of places paid out on EW bets based on the final number of runners, whereas Betfair Exchange will remain the same no matter how many non-runners there are. eg if there is originally 8 runners but only 7 end up running then the bookmaker will be paying on 2 places whereas your liability on Betfair will still be 3 places.
> Bookmakers won't like you taking value EW bets and you risk getting your account strictly limited.
> Bookmakers will reduce the number of places paid out on EW bets based on the final number of runners, whereas Betfair Exchange will remain the same no matter how many non-runners there are. eg if there is originally 8 runners but only 7 end up running then the bookmaker will be paying on 2 places whereas your liability on Betfair will still be 3 places.
Super good point, James, I did read that somewhere else about the Betfair palces not changing...
I did wonder how much they would allow, I kinda figured Betfair wouldn't mind taking a few hundred off them, but also wouldn't want my account shut down....
I did wonder how much they would allow, I kinda figured Betfair wouldn't mind taking a few hundred off them, but also wouldn't want my account shut down....
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 4699
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Betfair won't shut your account down, but you might find yourself being limited to pence on the Sportsbook.