US Racing betting on tote in-play

[Naffman]

Jockey fell off about 2 seconds into the race - you often see leaders smashed on the tote as well if they have an early lead.

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[jamesedwards]

Jockey fell off about 2 seconds into the race - you often see leaders smashed on the tote as well if they have an early lead.

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The nature of the US tote means the prices change on the off all the time. Sometimes the tote prices you see pre-off are just from the track, and as you can imagine, when the pool is updated with all the volume from national betting agents the shape of the pool can change entirely. If you cherry pick then it's very easy to find examples that look bad, but you can find just as many examples that go the other way.

[tryingtotrade]

Jockey fell off about 2 seconds into the race - you often see leaders smashed on the tote as well if they have an early lead.

IMG_6388.png

What would be the best way to get update of the likely totenlrice at the start, the bookmakers seem very unreliable, sometimes there are arbitrage opportunities close to the start but you can’t trust the odds forecast well enough

[jamesedwards]

Jockey fell off about 2 seconds into the race - you often see leaders smashed on the tote as well if they have an early lead.

IMG_6388.png

What would be the best way to get update of the likely totenlrice at the start, the bookmakers seem very unreliable, sometimes there are arbitrage opportunities close to the start but you can’t trust the odds forecast well enough

It's been a few years since I played US markets religiously. Back then the tote often ended up close to the Betfair Exchange odds. So if the price is very different between the Tote and Exchange then the Tote price is more likely to move at the off.

[Naffman]

You often see them complaining when a horse goes 4-1 to 2-1 in the last few seconds when it’s 3.5 on Betfair but I have to side with them here, someone is able to get on in the first few seconds IMO

[Gcampb]

You will never get an accurate picture of the pool dividends pre off. I run an account for a syndicate who wager in pools and our bets get placed in a terminal are queued until the off. US racing especially, you will see huge volume come in after the off which meaningfully affects the dividends.

[Naffman]

You will never get an accurate picture of the pool dividends pre off. I run an account for a syndicate who wager in pools and our bets get placed in a terminal are queued until the off. US racing especially, you will see huge volume come in after the off which meaningfully affects the dividends.

With the US price so low compared to the Betfair price, are they not also placing money into the UK markets as well or are there rebates that are too good to turn down?

[Gcampb]

You will never get an accurate picture of the pool dividends pre off. I run an account for a syndicate who wager in pools and our bets get placed in a terminal are queued until the off. US racing especially, you will see huge volume come in after the off which meaningfully affects the dividends.

With the US price so low compared to the Betfair price, are they not also placing money into the UK markets as well or are there rebates that are too good to turn down?

US racing is a different beast. UK & IE markets offer very healthy rebates too, 15-19% some exotics 20%+ but typically an account that is in reciept of rebates need to do a certain turnover annually in the markets they can bet on to keep receiving those rebates. Different markets require different strategies so its not as straightforward as one might think. The rebates are an incentive to provide liquidity - but the edge might not support that kind of volume, so it might require running flat or even negative strategies in order to meet liquidity requirements in order to maintain turnover.

Personally, I think the US markets are just beyond repair, syndicates (in reciepts of rebates) have such an unfair advantage over punters and its systemic now.. its an extremely shady business, with extremely shady groups involved over there.