1.01 loser stats
I lay the field under 2.0 , i wont say what prices it will give away my edge , it took alot of time to work out which odds to use and what races to trade if you go in on every race you will lose imo, it turns a nice profit its all automated so its all good , if you have your stakes to high you probs wont get matched also Peter is correct the earlier you get your bets in the better , but as mugs always says be selective some tracks are different to others as is field size, race length, weather ,race type , if you put in the work you'll get the rewards.
I have checked the excel file and seems like 13th of January, FRIDAY! has been an interesting day, 10 races out of 30 had a 1.01 loser, 7 coming from course Wolverhampton.. Coincidence? Hell yeah 
Too many people already know this strategy.
Looking at every race today in both the win and the place markets shows about £4,000 at 1.01 for each horse in the win market and £1,000 (sometimes down at £600) in the place market.
There is a site with the matched volume for every 1.01 loser in 2009 - http://www.gubbage.com/losers
While the overall stats give you a positive E(x) for 1.01 losers - you won't find a positive E(x) if you are following the first £4,000 in each race.
So you need to be the first layer. Of course, it has already been pointed out - you won't be, because there are bots that already have this anomaly sown up.
Looking at every race today in both the win and the place markets shows about £4,000 at 1.01 for each horse in the win market and £1,000 (sometimes down at £600) in the place market.
There is a site with the matched volume for every 1.01 loser in 2009 - http://www.gubbage.com/losers
While the overall stats give you a positive E(x) for 1.01 losers - you won't find a positive E(x) if you are following the first £4,000 in each race.
So you need to be the first layer. Of course, it has already been pointed out - you won't be, because there are bots that already have this anomaly sown up.
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
It does not matter if many already know the strategy, many people will leave it after 2-3 unsuccesfull days. No everyone have the time to do it and not every one can afford to go 4 consecutive weeks without a win. That's the difference. Someelse pointed out that it only takes a split second before the price come back up,I disagree with that... most of the time 1,01 stay there long enough to ge matched and sometime the reverse strategy triggered by bots keep the 1,01 even longer. Yesterday on one of the 1st races of the day ( Ayr, southwell or cartmel? ) the winner got matched @ 1,01 twice during the race. 2f left 1,01 1f left 2/1 and at end 1,01 again. Only people that are around and manage to close manually can increase a bit more their chances...
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
As we speak Raheeba @ Muss.. from 1,01 to 2,0 but won on photofinish.....the market reopened @ 1,2..
Good luck to those on 1.01. But I've run the stats and it's not E(x) positive unless you are at the front of the queue.
At other values below 2 there are E(x) positive strategies.
And those who chase success at any level above 1.01 disrupt those chasing a return at lower odds including those at 1.01. Think about it and you will discover why.
All layers who hold bets of even stakes under 2 disrupt all strategies below them. Be prepared to adapt.
At other values below 2 there are E(x) positive strategies.
And those who chase success at any level above 1.01 disrupt those chasing a return at lower odds including those at 1.01. Think about it and you will discover why.
All layers who hold bets of even stakes under 2 disrupt all strategies below them. Be prepared to adapt.
This statement would be true if you take into consideration only layers. There are also backers in the market that change strategies. And when one decides to lay at 1.1 to have an advantage a backer will decide to back at 1.1 as at lower odds there's no value in his opinion. And we could even have the opposite of what you said if the number of backers is higher.And those who chase success at any level above 1.01 disrupt those chasing a return at lower odds including those at 1.01. Think about it and you will discover why.
That said I remember a race at Ascot when in running odds of a horse did not go under 1.90-2.00 simply because there were too many lay orders. The horse lost in the end but looked as a winner for quite a while
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wakeywakey
- Posts: 31
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 5:50 pm
Been trying out this method for quite a while.
As previous posts have already stated, it's virtually impossible to get in before the early £2000.
I waited one day for the following days races to be put up by Betfair. When they did, there was already £1500 available at 1.01.
I am of the opinion it is Betfair themselves rather than outside software.
You can still get some 1.01s but it makes blanket laying very bad value.
On fact I have managed only 33% getting matched using 1.01 method.
Yes, it's great when you get it, but it's too few and far between to make any profit from it.
To legendz, you lay only under 2.0, but I have tried this, at various prices.
For example, at 1.1 there have been 431 selections matched at 1.1 or less out of 5833 so not that greater value, and some of those are 1.01s, most of which, won't get matched.
So I have found it almost impossible to get an edge on blanket laying the field.
I just want to make sure people don't think it's easy, because I have spent considerable time and effort studying something that really doesn't work!
As previous posts have already stated, it's virtually impossible to get in before the early £2000.
I waited one day for the following days races to be put up by Betfair. When they did, there was already £1500 available at 1.01.
I am of the opinion it is Betfair themselves rather than outside software.
You can still get some 1.01s but it makes blanket laying very bad value.
On fact I have managed only 33% getting matched using 1.01 method.
Yes, it's great when you get it, but it's too few and far between to make any profit from it.
To legendz, you lay only under 2.0, but I have tried this, at various prices.
For example, at 1.1 there have been 431 selections matched at 1.1 or less out of 5833 so not that greater value, and some of those are 1.01s, most of which, won't get matched.
So I have found it almost impossible to get an edge on blanket laying the field.
I just want to make sure people don't think it's easy, because I have spent considerable time and effort studying something that really doesn't work!
But thats if you get matched on the layside i tried this in my early days and the back side got matched first left open for slaghter of £350legendz wrote:Yes and ive just worked out a rule that will lay at low odds and then green up if there is a photo finish ... nice!!giulio2010 wrote:As we speak Raheeba @ Muss.. from 1,01 to 2,0 but won on photofinish.....the market reopened @ 1,2..
Nice charts. Also, your statistics differ a bit from mine, as i can see in your course statistics. Don't know why and don't know where you got your numbers from...
I have more and complete 1.01 statistics (2004-2012) on my website. Average Matched Amounts, Average Days Between Losers, Losers per distance and more. Check it out...
http://www.gubbage.com
By the way i cannot say that 1.01 laying would be free money (of course i wouldn't have told you then) but that doesn't say you can't make money from it. However, I susped Betfair itself lays at 1.01 because you can try to be the first in the queue by placing the bet immideately when the market opens, but you will never be the first
I have more and complete 1.01 statistics (2004-2012) on my website. Average Matched Amounts, Average Days Between Losers, Losers per distance and more. Check it out...
http://www.gubbage.com
By the way i cannot say that 1.01 laying would be free money (of course i wouldn't have told you then) but that doesn't say you can't make money from it. However, I susped Betfair itself lays at 1.01 because you can try to be the first in the queue by placing the bet immideately when the market opens, but you will never be the first
Nice site!
Out of interest, is your specialism when betting spotting low-priced losers and big-priced winners?
Jeff
Out of interest, is your specialism when betting spotting low-priced losers and big-priced winners?
Jeff
Yoshiii wrote:
I have more and complete 1.01 statistics (2004-2012) on my website. Average Matched Amounts, Average Days Between Losers, Losers per distance and more. Check it out...
http://www.gubbage.com