Cheltenham 2016

[PeterLe]

I was just looking through some of the results from last year and thought Id share this (as I know a few people are running the "Lay the first to trade under 2" bot recently created by Dallas.
Data taken from Betfair Results (Timeform)
Of the 27(?) races, only 3 races had three runners that traded under 2 (NB: Empahsis on UNDER, many traded at 2).
There were 6 races that had two that traded under 2 *ie you would have broke even or thereabouts).
18 races where only the winner traded under 2 (thats high)
2 low losers at 1.05 and 1.07, Highest winner 240 in play

Maybe there is an automated strategy to trade back the first horse to trade under 1.98 (backing at 1.01 to make sure you get matched and maybe fire a lay bet in at 1.1 for eg to hedge..)

Just a though; but good luck eitherway!
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

I was looking at data last night and it seems that 3 or under is the magic number at Cheltenham. Not many at 2 or under, it seems the market is more certain at Cheltenham than other courses.

[PeterLe]

Yep, I just thought that if anyone was using that particular BOT, it may save them a few quid.

Even in my Auto heyday; Chel never really lived up to expectations, perhaps the quality of the horses/jockeys etc..

If I get chance Ill have a look at 2014 if I can get the data
regards
Peter

[icarus121]

Very nice heads up Gents.Thanks

[Dublin_Flyer]

Haven't been active much at all lately, but best of luck to all the forumites for Cheltenham. May your backs all win, your lays all not win, and your trades all be the greenest of green!

[megarain]

Yeah, thx for the info.

I will be in the Betdaq box, on Day 1 .. if anyone going.

[Euler]

I was invited but I'll still be behind my trading screen this year. I'm condemned to attending duff racing for hospitality still

Please tell Betdaq how great our free Betdaq software is and how they need to provide us with much more funding to upgrade it!

[LinusP]

Here is the data graphed from 09-15, I remember 2013 being good.

https://public.tableau.com/views/Chelte ... showTabs=y

[hgodden]

That's very interesting research, I'd imagine there's a decent chance those sort of findings would be replicated at other big meetings / races.

[Euler]

Good stuff.

I stuck up a video on what the Cheltenham markets tend to look like from a pre-off trading perspective :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrXumEhY_ZI

[Euler]

Here are the charts from last year, to post time: -

http://www.betangel.com/betfair-charts/ ... heltenham/

[oscar123]

Many thanks for posting those charts. A great way to prepare and get ready for this years festival.

[ricardodeano]

Would anyone like the Betfair raw data for previous festivals / would anyone object to me posting it if some folk would like it?

[Euler]

I'm sure that would be welcome to the community

[ricardodeano]

I'm sure that would be welcome to the community

In which case, here's the Betfair win data. I've also put in the selections rank in terms of favouritism so knock yourselves out.

CAVEAT: If you spot any dodgy data or duplicate lines, let me know so I can give the data a good cleanse. Should be good though.