Finding a loser

[Frogmella]

I went a few days without any winners, but there were fewer qualifying races.

Normal service resumed.

More winners:

Yesterday

Phar Away.jpg

Today:

TigerRoll.jpg

[Frogmella]

Yesterday: Supasundae

Supasundae.jpg

Today: Bescot Springs

Bescot Springs.jpg

[CK2021]

I was just browsing the forum as I have been awake since 06:00. After a 4 hour drive home last night I thought I would be totally knackered but as soon as 06:00 ticked around I was up and out with my dogs.

I used to do this quite a lot, in fact you may find some of my posts where I have offered "losers" etc. There should be one on the Derby where I said to lay Dawn Approach as it couldn't win over the distance. That was based on pedigree and dosage index...nothing to do with drugs

There are some things you really must factor in when looking for a loser.

It is hard for punters and horse connections to beat the handicapper and conventional form is based on trying to do just that. Yes there is always a rick and there is always a horse that hasn't been putting its best foot forward but you cannot know about the latter so it is something you have to accept should you get it wrong. The handicapper and stewards have cameras everywhere so they rarely miss anything untoward. The handicapper's job is to rate a horse on its merits i.e. how it ran in a race. They are not there to determine if the horse handled the ground, the trip, the fences/hurdles or the direction of track, RH or LH. This is where the odd "plot horse" slips through the net. Having said that, lots of people will find it and the price will move accordingly.

So how can you do this?

When looking for a loser, the handicap mark is a very reliable yardstick. It is rare to find a horse running 7 times off a mark of 108 with no success which then gets its head in front off the same mark. It would need a few strange events to occur for this to happen perhaps a few fallers, etc. If that happens well you cannot blame yourself.

Ground is vital. Heavy going brings good and bad horses together which can produce strange results. If you are looking for a loser in heavy ground, look at the front of the book for a shorter price and check its heavy ground form. If it has no heavy ground form then it could be one for your shortlist. You must discard soft ground form as a positive, that is not the same thing. You will often hear the experts on TV extolling the virtues of soft ground form when the actual going is heavy. It's not a good comparison.

Quality of the horses. Be very selective in low grade races when looking for a loser. If the grade is 4-6 then you must look closer at the form and factor in the ground. If it is heavy then it's probably best to put a line through the race unless you are confident it meets your chosen markers.

One last thing. It is often best to start with the favourite because your liability is lower and the reasons for it being so fancied could be something you can exploit. The bookies and layers will try and keep the offered price on the low side and if it is based on trainer's ability etc then you can often find an opportunity. If you cannot find a weakness in the favourite then move through the card. If you stick to this method it will reduce your errors and make it more systematic when looking for the loser.

HTH

JG

I know I'm 3 years too late but that was a great post @JollyGreen

[wearthefoxhat]

I was just browsing the forum as I have been awake since 06:00. After a 4 hour drive home last night I thought I would be totally knackered but as soon as 06:00 ticked around I was up and out with my dogs.

I used to do this quite a lot, in fact you may find some of my posts where I have offered "losers" etc. There should be one on the Derby where I said to lay Dawn Approach as it couldn't win over the distance. That was based on pedigree and dosage index...nothing to do with drugs

There are some things you really must factor in when looking for a loser.

It is hard for punters and horse connections to beat the handicapper and conventional form is based on trying to do just that. Yes there is always a rick and there is always a horse that hasn't been putting its best foot forward but you cannot know about the latter so it is something you have to accept should you get it wrong. The handicapper and stewards have cameras everywhere so they rarely miss anything untoward. The handicapper's job is to rate a horse on its merits i.e. how it ran in a race. They are not there to determine if the horse handled the ground, the trip, the fences/hurdles or the direction of track, RH or LH. This is where the odd "plot horse" slips through the net. Having said that, lots of people will find it and the price will move accordingly.

So how can you do this?

When looking for a loser, the handicap mark is a very reliable yardstick. It is rare to find a horse running 7 times off a mark of 108 with no success which then gets its head in front off the same mark. It would need a few strange events to occur for this to happen perhaps a few fallers, etc. If that happens well you cannot blame yourself.

Ground is vital. Heavy going brings good and bad horses together which can produce strange results. If you are looking for a loser in heavy ground, look at the front of the book for a shorter price and check its heavy ground form. If it has no heavy ground form then it could be one for your shortlist. You must discard soft ground form as a positive, that is not the same thing. You will often hear the experts on TV extolling the virtues of soft ground form when the actual going is heavy. It's not a good comparison.

Quality of the horses. Be very selective in low grade races when looking for a loser. If the grade is 4-6 then you must look closer at the form and factor in the ground. If it is heavy then it's probably best to put a line through the race unless you are confident it meets your chosen markers.

One last thing. It is often best to start with the favourite because your liability is lower and the reasons for it being so fancied could be something you can exploit. The bookies and layers will try and keep the offered price on the low side and if it is based on trainer's ability etc then you can often find an opportunity. If you cannot find a weakness in the favourite then move through the card. If you stick to this method it will reduce your errors and make it more systematic when looking for the loser.

HTH

JG

I know I'm 3 years too late but that was a great post @JollyGreen

Never too late!

JGGs posts are always a good read and can help focus/re-focus when things go off track.

The handicapper(s) role is worth understanding. An entertaining way of doing so is the old ATR "Ask the Handicapper" series, here's a taster.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9A1WQGIoRw

All the other(s) are a good listen/watch as Phil explains their approach to handicapping. The trainer-form is the other big factor too. The main thing I took away from the series, was that the handicapper would watch/re-watch the race a fair few times, and that would influence if he put up or put down a horses handicap mark.

How they assess the Irish runners when they run across the water is important to understand. Gordon Elliot used to raid the the big handicaps until a loop hole was closed.

They have around 6 handicappers that specialise in creating ratings, with Phil (now retired - replaced by Dominic Gardiner-Hill) the main overseer.