Finding a loser

The sport of kings.
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Frogmella
Posts: 220
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 2:44 pm
Location: Towcester

As a noob/returner to Bet Angel I have been spending a couple of weeks using practice mode relearning the old stuff and learning the new. I've also been remaking the mistakes I made in the past.

As part of my effort to learn the new abilities of Advanced Automation I have been trying out various simple lay bots.

Now you would think, anyone would think, that finding a selection to lose a race would be a simple matter, but no, every single day, well, almost every day, I manage to lay a runner at SP odds over 12 that goes on to win. (16:40 today, 16:45 yesterday, there have been many others but I've thrown the sheets away). I have Dallas' excellent stop routine added to my automation but sometimes like today, when the leader must have fallen, the price bangs through so fast that it doesn't save you much. Mercifully its not real money - yet.

Find an unfancied horse, lay it, clean up. Easy? Not on your life.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Years ago I used to be fascinated and worked extensively to try and find ridiculously high win or lay strike rates. So I would never have to endure a losing day or losing run.

Although I beleive it could be possible with tireless amounts off effort and work.

Where I have gone wrong over the years is not working on myself.

Composure, understanding patience and disciplie is the ingredient for anyform of gambling success.

If your looking to lay horses. Look for value not for losers.

If you see a horse priced 2/1 and you think it should be 20/1 regardless if t wins or not that is value. Do this everyday and you will make a profit each month.

Easier said then done but trying to not find a loser will just result in chasing systems ideas again and again.

Work on a system. Test the system and stick religously to it.

Its just the same as trading. I have days more often then not were I have a losing trade after losing trade. then by the end of the day I have a run of some really beautiful trades. Becasue I never used to take the controlled losses I would barely break even. Then getting frustrated because I had a huge trade and still ende up on a loss.

This is my results from today to show you what I mean.
+£1.11
-£6.40
-£24.00
+£25.10
+£40.80
+£8.60
+£24.30

My first three races today I couldnt get anything to work and I could have easily been £70/£80 down by the third race. But becasue I did the right thing I had a decent day and continued to prfit throughout the day.

Hope this turns on a lightbulb for you.
neld0r
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:45 pm

Now you would think, anyone would think, that finding a selection to lose a race would be a simple matter, but no, every single day, well, almost every day, I manage to lay a runner at SP odds over 12 that goes on to win. (16:40 today, 16:45 yesterday, there have been many others but I've thrown the sheets away).
lol if you keep finding winners when you were looking for losers then maybe start backing your "losers" instead? Maybe you should start a tipster service :lol:
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Frogmella wrote:
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:35 pm
As a noob/returner to Bet Angel I have been spending a couple of weeks using practice mode relearning the old stuff and learning the new. I've also been remaking the mistakes I made in the past.

As part of my effort to learn the new abilities of Advanced Automation I have been trying out various simple lay bots.

Now you would think, anyone would think, that finding a selection to lose a race would be a simple matter, but no, every single day, well, almost every day, I manage to lay a runner at SP odds over 12 that goes on to win. (16:40 today, 16:45 yesterday, there have been many others but I've thrown the sheets away). I have Dallas' excellent stop routine added to my automation but sometimes like today, when the leader must have fallen, the price bangs through so fast that it doesn't save you much. Mercifully its not real money - yet.

Find an unfancied horse, lay it, clean up. Easy? Not on your life.
I'm happy to be corrected, but I'm sure I read somewhere that you should never rely on a stop loss in play - as you've stated above, the price flies through the stop and never returns.

Perhaps a more sensible approach would be to not lay runners over 2.0 - at least that way, your liabilities will be a lot smaller?

Best of luck

Iambic
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jimibt
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i agree with laying at small odds. one way to mitigate disaster is to lay low when gaps appear between the back and lay price, and don't be greedy, push in an offset bet at about 12-16 ticks. this should allow you to at least identify opportunities on low odds, the secret of course is in ensuring that you don't get carried away and allow the lay to expire without an offset. from experience, 4 times out of 5, you'd get away without an offset bet but would get caught and wiped on the 5th. finding the balance is key - experiment.
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Frogmella
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Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 2:44 pm
Location: Towcester

jimibt wrote:
Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:57 am
i agree with laying at small odds. one way to mitigate disaster is to lay low when gaps appear between the back and lay price, and don't be greedy, push in an offset bet at about 12-16 ticks. this should allow you to at least identify opportunities on low odds, the secret of course is in ensuring that you don't get carried away and allow the lay to expire without an offset. from experience, 4 times out of 5, you'd get away without an offset bet but would get caught and wiped on the 5th. finding the balance is key - experiment.
The wipe out is key, and it is as reliable as clockwork. As a friend of mine says about life in general "there's always a torpedo in the water, you just don't know when its going to hit you."

I'm not intending to put this to real money. I know it can't be a winner because its too simple, everyone would be doing it. Dallas posted this nice in-running stop routine that doesn't trigger unless your negative "green up profit" has exceeded your stop target for a given number of consequtive seconds, say five or ten, whatever you like. It works well (unless the leader falls).

I am using this mainly to experiment with and learn how the latest automation rules work and can be applied.

With this thread I was just pointing out how it can be just as hard to consistently pick as loser, as it is a winner.
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jimibt
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Frogmella wrote:
Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:41 am
With this thread I was just pointing out how it can be just as hard to consistently pick as loser, as it is a winner.
yup, what makes it so hard is that picking losers above 5-6 odds will just take longer to bite back :D
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Frogmella
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Location: Towcester

HaHaHaHa........you couldn't make it up

Buckled in the 15:00 see attached.
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jimibt
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i'd definitely TRY to keep the odds below 6 if possible when laying, even tho the temptation to place at higher odds may give the impression of it going on to lose!! ;)
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Frogmella
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And once again, Tangley. Hilarious. What are the odds of picking two outsiders to win out of three races that my automation layed?

My automation rules take me out without a huge loss (Mostly).

See attached
Tangley.jpg
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jimibt
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ok, you need to definitely put in conditions to prevent laying above a certain threshold (I'd suggest 6 odds), otherwise, you're going to find that you are catching these runners spinning out and looping back in. not sure how/when you place your lay bets, but i'd suggest really waiting until the final meltdown moments as you'll catch some good fast action that you can hook into at this point.

trial and error... (alas, plenty of the former)
LinusP
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jimibt wrote:
Wed Mar 01, 2017 5:09 pm
ok, you need to definitely put in conditions to prevent laying above a certain threshold (I'd suggest 6 odds), otherwise, you're going to find that you are catching these runners spinning out and looping back in. not sure how/when you place your lay bets, but i'd suggest really waiting until the final meltdown moments as you'll catch some good fast action that you can hook into at this point.

trial and error... (alas, plenty of the former)
Value is value and shouldn't make a difference if the odds are 6 or 600, although not quite sure what this strategy is..
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Frogmella
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Its not a strategy, I think some of you may be getting hold of the wrong end of the stick.

I am practicing and learning the use of the advanced automation tools in BA. I am using several different practice approaches including some simple lay bets. I have NO INTENTION of doing this with real money.

This thread, intended primarily for the benefit of other noobs, was merely illustrating, that finding a selection that will lose can be just as hazardous as trying to find a winner. Even more so, because of the financial loss you can suffer when they win.

The fact that my automation rules have hit unlikely winners almost every day, without any input from me, is a warning for anyone thinking that laying a single outsider is an easy way to make money. Today my automation placed simple lay bets on outsiders in four events. I accidentally found two winners and one second place out of the four.
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ShaunWhite
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Frogmella wrote:
Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:15 pm
was merely illustrating, that finding a selection that will lose can be just as hazardous as trying to find a winner.
So how are you selecting your value losers? I'm still in the dark about what you're proving.

So far all I can see is that if you lay at big prices you get more varience in your P&L, and betting at random doesn't pay? Do 'noobs' really need this level of advice ? Is that what all these good people's head scratching has been for? By the way, in the OP you did say that you weren't doing this with real money 'yet', so not a suprise if people got the wrong end of the stick and were trying to help you with a strategy.
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JollyGreen
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I was just browsing the forum as I have been awake since 06:00. After a 4 hour drive home last night I thought I would be totally knackered but as soon as 06:00 ticked around I was up and out with my dogs.

I used to do this quite a lot, in fact you may find some of my posts where I have offered "losers" etc. There should be one on the Derby where I said to lay Dawn Approach as it couldn't win over the distance. That was based on pedigree and dosage index...nothing to do with drugs :lol:

There are some things you really must factor in when looking for a loser.

It is hard for punters and horse connections to beat the handicapper and conventional form is based on trying to do just that. Yes there is always a rick and there is always a horse that hasn't been putting its best foot forward but you cannot know about the latter so it is something you have to accept should you get it wrong. The handicapper and stewards have cameras everywhere so they rarely miss anything untoward. The handicapper's job is to rate a horse on its merits i.e. how it ran in a race. They are not there to determine if the horse handled the ground, the trip, the fences/hurdles or the direction of track, RH or LH. This is where the odd "plot horse" slips through the net. Having said that, lots of people will find it and the price will move accordingly.

So how can you do this?

When looking for a loser, the handicap mark is a very reliable yardstick. It is rare to find a horse running 7 times off a mark of 108 with no success which then gets its head in front off the same mark. It would need a few strange events to occur for this to happen perhaps a few fallers, etc. If that happens well you cannot blame yourself.

Ground is vital. Heavy going brings good and bad horses together which can produce strange results. If you are looking for a loser in heavy ground, look at the front of the book for a shorter price and check its heavy ground form. If it has no heavy ground form then it could be one for your shortlist. You must discard soft ground form as a positive, that is not the same thing. You will often hear the experts on TV extolling the virtues of soft ground form when the actual going is heavy. It's not a good comparison.

Quality of the horses. Be very selective in low grade races when looking for a loser. If the grade is 4-6 then you must look closer at the form and factor in the ground. If it is heavy then it's probably best to put a line through the race unless you are confident it meets your chosen markers.

One last thing. It is often best to start with the favourite because your liability is lower and the reasons for it being so fancied could be something you can exploit. The bookies and layers will try and keep the offered price on the low side and if it is based on trainer's ability etc then you can often find an opportunity. If you cannot find a weakness in the favourite then move through the card. If you stick to this method it will reduce your errors and make it more systematic when looking for the loser.

HTH

JG
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