ok, you need to definitely put in conditions to prevent laying above a certain threshold (I'd suggest 6 odds), otherwise, you're going to find that you are catching these runners spinning out and looping back in. not sure how/when you place your lay bets, but i'd suggest really waiting until the final meltdown moments as you'll catch some good fast action that you can hook into at this point.
trial and error... (alas, plenty of the former)
Finding a loser
Value is value and shouldn't make a difference if the odds are 6 or 600, although not quite sure what this strategy is..jimibt wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2017 5:09 pmok, you need to definitely put in conditions to prevent laying above a certain threshold (I'd suggest 6 odds), otherwise, you're going to find that you are catching these runners spinning out and looping back in. not sure how/when you place your lay bets, but i'd suggest really waiting until the final meltdown moments as you'll catch some good fast action that you can hook into at this point.
trial and error... (alas, plenty of the former)
Its not a strategy, I think some of you may be getting hold of the wrong end of the stick.
I am practicing and learning the use of the advanced automation tools in BA. I am using several different practice approaches including some simple lay bets. I have NO INTENTION of doing this with real money.
This thread, intended primarily for the benefit of other noobs, was merely illustrating, that finding a selection that will lose can be just as hazardous as trying to find a winner. Even more so, because of the financial loss you can suffer when they win.
The fact that my automation rules have hit unlikely winners almost every day, without any input from me, is a warning for anyone thinking that laying a single outsider is an easy way to make money. Today my automation placed simple lay bets on outsiders in four events. I accidentally found two winners and one second place out of the four.
I am practicing and learning the use of the advanced automation tools in BA. I am using several different practice approaches including some simple lay bets. I have NO INTENTION of doing this with real money.
This thread, intended primarily for the benefit of other noobs, was merely illustrating, that finding a selection that will lose can be just as hazardous as trying to find a winner. Even more so, because of the financial loss you can suffer when they win.
The fact that my automation rules have hit unlikely winners almost every day, without any input from me, is a warning for anyone thinking that laying a single outsider is an easy way to make money. Today my automation placed simple lay bets on outsiders in four events. I accidentally found two winners and one second place out of the four.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
So how are you selecting your value losers? I'm still in the dark about what you're proving.
So far all I can see is that if you lay at big prices you get more varience in your P&L, and betting at random doesn't pay? Do 'noobs' really need this level of advice ? Is that what all these good people's head scratching has been for? By the way, in the OP you did say that you weren't doing this with real money 'yet', so not a suprise if people got the wrong end of the stick and were trying to help you with a strategy.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I was just browsing the forum as I have been awake since 06:00. After a 4 hour drive home last night I thought I would be totally knackered but as soon as 06:00 ticked around I was up and out with my dogs.
I used to do this quite a lot, in fact you may find some of my posts where I have offered "losers" etc. There should be one on the Derby where I said to lay Dawn Approach as it couldn't win over the distance. That was based on pedigree and dosage index...nothing to do with drugs
There are some things you really must factor in when looking for a loser.
It is hard for punters and horse connections to beat the handicapper and conventional form is based on trying to do just that. Yes there is always a rick and there is always a horse that hasn't been putting its best foot forward but you cannot know about the latter so it is something you have to accept should you get it wrong. The handicapper and stewards have cameras everywhere so they rarely miss anything untoward. The handicapper's job is to rate a horse on its merits i.e. how it ran in a race. They are not there to determine if the horse handled the ground, the trip, the fences/hurdles or the direction of track, RH or LH. This is where the odd "plot horse" slips through the net. Having said that, lots of people will find it and the price will move accordingly.
So how can you do this?
When looking for a loser, the handicap mark is a very reliable yardstick. It is rare to find a horse running 7 times off a mark of 108 with no success which then gets its head in front off the same mark. It would need a few strange events to occur for this to happen perhaps a few fallers, etc. If that happens well you cannot blame yourself.
Ground is vital. Heavy going brings good and bad horses together which can produce strange results. If you are looking for a loser in heavy ground, look at the front of the book for a shorter price and check its heavy ground form. If it has no heavy ground form then it could be one for your shortlist. You must discard soft ground form as a positive, that is not the same thing. You will often hear the experts on TV extolling the virtues of soft ground form when the actual going is heavy. It's not a good comparison.
Quality of the horses. Be very selective in low grade races when looking for a loser. If the grade is 4-6 then you must look closer at the form and factor in the ground. If it is heavy then it's probably best to put a line through the race unless you are confident it meets your chosen markers.
One last thing. It is often best to start with the favourite because your liability is lower and the reasons for it being so fancied could be something you can exploit. The bookies and layers will try and keep the offered price on the low side and if it is based on trainer's ability etc then you can often find an opportunity. If you cannot find a weakness in the favourite then move through the card. If you stick to this method it will reduce your errors and make it more systematic when looking for the loser.
HTH
JG
I used to do this quite a lot, in fact you may find some of my posts where I have offered "losers" etc. There should be one on the Derby where I said to lay Dawn Approach as it couldn't win over the distance. That was based on pedigree and dosage index...nothing to do with drugs
There are some things you really must factor in when looking for a loser.
It is hard for punters and horse connections to beat the handicapper and conventional form is based on trying to do just that. Yes there is always a rick and there is always a horse that hasn't been putting its best foot forward but you cannot know about the latter so it is something you have to accept should you get it wrong. The handicapper and stewards have cameras everywhere so they rarely miss anything untoward. The handicapper's job is to rate a horse on its merits i.e. how it ran in a race. They are not there to determine if the horse handled the ground, the trip, the fences/hurdles or the direction of track, RH or LH. This is where the odd "plot horse" slips through the net. Having said that, lots of people will find it and the price will move accordingly.
So how can you do this?
When looking for a loser, the handicap mark is a very reliable yardstick. It is rare to find a horse running 7 times off a mark of 108 with no success which then gets its head in front off the same mark. It would need a few strange events to occur for this to happen perhaps a few fallers, etc. If that happens well you cannot blame yourself.
Ground is vital. Heavy going brings good and bad horses together which can produce strange results. If you are looking for a loser in heavy ground, look at the front of the book for a shorter price and check its heavy ground form. If it has no heavy ground form then it could be one for your shortlist. You must discard soft ground form as a positive, that is not the same thing. You will often hear the experts on TV extolling the virtues of soft ground form when the actual going is heavy. It's not a good comparison.
Quality of the horses. Be very selective in low grade races when looking for a loser. If the grade is 4-6 then you must look closer at the form and factor in the ground. If it is heavy then it's probably best to put a line through the race unless you are confident it meets your chosen markers.
One last thing. It is often best to start with the favourite because your liability is lower and the reasons for it being so fancied could be something you can exploit. The bookies and layers will try and keep the offered price on the low side and if it is based on trainer's ability etc then you can often find an opportunity. If you cannot find a weakness in the favourite then move through the card. If you stick to this method it will reduce your errors and make it more systematic when looking for the loser.
HTH
JG
Just for completeness. Yesterday I hit the 15:55 (I think, didn't take a screen shot) layed a runner at 12, it won.
Today, first race, Monfass, layed at 18. It won. lol. (My automation would have taken me out with little damage done). Remarkable. I should probably become a backer, seems I'm really good at it. lol.
Today, first race, Monfass, layed at 18. It won. lol. (My automation would have taken me out with little damage done). Remarkable. I should probably become a backer, seems I'm really good at it. lol.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Unless you have a system, I reckon its just a variable.. soon as you start backing them the speel will probably switch. Sods law.
Just to explain what is happening.
My ruleset selects races where distance is at least 15 f and runners > 5.
Then it starts at the bottom of the favourite list and works its way up until it finds a selection between 12 & 20 odds when it lays a £10 bet just before the off.
The rules then monitor in play and take me out either when a negative Green of £15 is held for 5 seconds or we are about 1 minute from the post.
The average loss on the 4 winners toady would have been £12.09 each. A couple of others ran very close too.
Of course if I'd just backed them each for a tenner today it would have been cigars all round.
My ruleset selects races where distance is at least 15 f and runners > 5.
Then it starts at the bottom of the favourite list and works its way up until it finds a selection between 12 & 20 odds when it lays a £10 bet just before the off.
The rules then monitor in play and take me out either when a negative Green of £15 is held for 5 seconds or we are about 1 minute from the post.
The average loss on the 4 winners toady would have been £12.09 each. A couple of others ran very close too.
Of course if I'd just backed them each for a tenner today it would have been cigars all round.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Surprisingly, no winners Saturday but two today.
Bearing in mind that this is only practice mode and my records are incomplete, I estimate that over the last 7 days, had my automation backed each selection for £10 instead of laying for £10 it would have made about £1200 "on-paper" profit before commission.
On the plus side, I have learned a great deal about how to set up automation rules and I am now quite proficient on the use of signalling. I can now confidently state that I am able to consistently lose money, entirely on autopilot.
On the plus side, I have learned a great deal about how to set up automation rules and I am now quite proficient on the use of signalling. I can now confidently state that I am able to consistently lose money, entirely on autopilot.
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i'd more than bet that reversing to a back based approach will similarly confound your hopes. i've experimented with this contrarian type approach before and found that in reality, there has to be a magical little ingredient that makes the chosen trade a bit special (never found out what of course ).
Out of interest, in your summary of the rule that you use, you mention that you place a lay bet on a runner between 12 and 20 odds. Do you place the chosen trade on the highest odds runner, the lowest or just any random runner that happens to occupy that range at the time??
Just interested to see if the selection is systemised or completely random - good luck next week !!
).Out of interest, in your summary of the rule that you use, you mention that you place a lay bet on a runner between 12 and 20 odds. Do you place the chosen trade on the highest odds runner, the lowest or just any random runner that happens to occupy that range at the time??
Just interested to see if the selection is systemised or completely random - good luck next week !!