At What Point Should I Just Give up
Another £100 gone today; at what point should I just give up on trading? I have been trying to learn pre-off trading now for 5 months. I have read that only 1 in 100-500 traders are actually successful in the long run. At this point it looks highly unlikely that I will be one of them. I am working full time and can only trade on the evening meetings in addition to Saturdays and Sundays. I have read lots of posts on having the correct mindset, but it is very difficult to get your mindset right when you just keep losing. That is, unless you enjoy throwing money away. If I am to continue I need practical help on reading markets to improve my entry and exit points.
Why do you continue with pre-off horses? Is horse racing your favourite sport?
My advice is to start with something you enjoy, as you will have more confidence in the trades that you place, and that will lead to a greater understanding of markets
I have been full-time for 9 years, and I NEVER trade horse races with less than 30mins before the off, NEVER
My advice is to start with something you enjoy, as you will have more confidence in the trades that you place, and that will lead to a greater understanding of markets
I have been full-time for 9 years, and I NEVER trade horse races with less than 30mins before the off, NEVER
If you are having doubts give up - especially if you are gambling - which seems likely.
No-one needs to lose £100 in a day while learning to trade. The software allows you to use practice mode. Betfair lets you use £2 stakes. There aren't enough races in a day - especially a Sunday to lose 50x£2 stakes completely. While you are learning use learning stakes - and don't get sidetracked by gambling - it doesn't help your learning it distracts you from it.
No-one needs to lose £100 in a day while learning to trade. The software allows you to use practice mode. Betfair lets you use £2 stakes. There aren't enough races in a day - especially a Sunday to lose 50x£2 stakes completely. While you are learning use learning stakes - and don't get sidetracked by gambling - it doesn't help your learning it distracts you from it.
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marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
It's not just the right mindset, you need an edge as well. The reason edges are not discussed is because those are the secrets we keep to ourselves. We are more than happy to discuss the psychological areas.
get an edge, it helps.
get an edge, it helps.
to75ne is quite right but I'd go a step further.
Before embarking on this 'ere trading lark, what was your exit strategy? No, not as in exiting a trade but as in exiting trading altogether. At what point did you plan to give up? After you had lost all of your bank? After you had lost half of your bank?
If you had a plan, stick to it. After all, why wouldn't you?
If you didn't have a plan, why not?
If you aren't in financial difficulty and won't be, even if you lose the whole of your bank, then you could take a break and create a plan for the remainder of your bank. Then, when you are ready, come back and execute your plan - only this time use minimum stakes and see if you can make a profit. If you can't make a profit using minimum stakes, you won't be able to make a profit with larger stakes either.
Hope this helps and good luck in whatever you choose to do.
Anna
Before embarking on this 'ere trading lark, what was your exit strategy? No, not as in exiting a trade but as in exiting trading altogether. At what point did you plan to give up? After you had lost all of your bank? After you had lost half of your bank?
If you had a plan, stick to it. After all, why wouldn't you?
If you didn't have a plan, why not?
If you aren't in financial difficulty and won't be, even if you lose the whole of your bank, then you could take a break and create a plan for the remainder of your bank. Then, when you are ready, come back and execute your plan - only this time use minimum stakes and see if you can make a profit. If you can't make a profit using minimum stakes, you won't be able to make a profit with larger stakes either.
Hope this helps and good luck in whatever you choose to do.
Anna
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
some ideas.
dont trade anything over 4,5- simply because it hurts too much when it comes against you quickly.
dont trade volatile markets such as maidens -national hunt flat -keep your trading to class 4 and better ,there will be moves but not as bad as your getting,
spend time learning to read the markets ,it has been mentioned on here before that it takes 10.000 hours to be good ,it took me 10.000 or more,
on one of peters recent videos he suggested that when you enter a market look for 1 thing only ,a drifter or steamer.if you dont see it do nothing.just move to next market,i didnt make any money in first 3 years,i knew that only a small percentage make it.i wanted to be in that percentage and was prepared to spent the 2-3-4 years learning.thats what it took and im still learning.its a journey and never a destintion.
Make rules for your self and stick to them.discipline and psychology are the hardest part for me not reading markets.
you will make it if you stick at it.but be prepared to put in alot more work,thats what it takes to make it.
never ever give it.if you want it bad enough you will get it.be patient.
Marc
dont trade anything over 4,5- simply because it hurts too much when it comes against you quickly.
dont trade volatile markets such as maidens -national hunt flat -keep your trading to class 4 and better ,there will be moves but not as bad as your getting,
spend time learning to read the markets ,it has been mentioned on here before that it takes 10.000 hours to be good ,it took me 10.000 or more,
on one of peters recent videos he suggested that when you enter a market look for 1 thing only ,a drifter or steamer.if you dont see it do nothing.just move to next market,i didnt make any money in first 3 years,i knew that only a small percentage make it.i wanted to be in that percentage and was prepared to spent the 2-3-4 years learning.thats what it took and im still learning.its a journey and never a destintion.
Make rules for your self and stick to them.discipline and psychology are the hardest part for me not reading markets.
you will make it if you stick at it.but be prepared to put in alot more work,thats what it takes to make it.
never ever give it.if you want it bad enough you will get it.be patient.
Marc
I would ask a similar question to Letiss - Why trade the horses?
Apart from the last few weeks since the time you started all the evening meetings have been low quality AW meetings which are a minefield even for experienced traders many of whom avoid the majority of them if not them all. So really that just leaves Saturday afternoon which means you've not yet had a month of trading.
I understand most new traders will often target horse racing and if its because its your favourite sport then it does deserve the extra effort but usually you find its because racing has had the most YT videos done and is what most of the talk is about, however its still considered the hardest to learn (certainly harder than both tennis and football).
If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.
That then stills leaves you with your Saturdays to take your pick on what you want to trade
I would expect most people would stand a far better chance of building up their bank this way and would certainly find it a lot less stressful when trading around a full-time day job
Apart from the last few weeks since the time you started all the evening meetings have been low quality AW meetings which are a minefield even for experienced traders many of whom avoid the majority of them if not them all. So really that just leaves Saturday afternoon which means you've not yet had a month of trading.
I understand most new traders will often target horse racing and if its because its your favourite sport then it does deserve the extra effort but usually you find its because racing has had the most YT videos done and is what most of the talk is about, however its still considered the hardest to learn (certainly harder than both tennis and football).
If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.
That then stills leaves you with your Saturdays to take your pick on what you want to trade
I would expect most people would stand a far better chance of building up their bank this way and would certainly find it a lot less stressful when trading around a full-time day job
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
Some excellent advice above.
The best advice I've been given is that to become proficient at trading the pre-race markets, is that you need:
1) Discipline
2) Screentime
You have to accept that this will take time - I'm nearly 10 months into my journey and whilst I'm nowhere near the stage where I could go full time, I can tell you that I'm far more experienced that I was 10 months ago.
For example:
When I started out, I was opening positions for the sake of it - really! It's quite astonishing when I think about it like that.
Now, however, I'm able to look at a market, understand what the likely movement will be, enter a position and be relatively disciplined about closing it should it go against me.
It took me 3 years of hard graft to get good at my self-employed work and I see trading as the same process / length of time, I know that I'll be in a position to say I've cracked it.
To echo what has already been said here - forget about using large amounts of money - just stick to using £2 stakes.
At this stage of the process, you should be looking to not lose money and as I see it, far better to do that using small stakes than big ones.
Keep at it, be disciplined and put the hours in and I promise you - it will start to make sense.
Best of luck
Iambic
The best advice I've been given is that to become proficient at trading the pre-race markets, is that you need:
1) Discipline
2) Screentime
You have to accept that this will take time - I'm nearly 10 months into my journey and whilst I'm nowhere near the stage where I could go full time, I can tell you that I'm far more experienced that I was 10 months ago.
For example:
When I started out, I was opening positions for the sake of it - really! It's quite astonishing when I think about it like that.
Now, however, I'm able to look at a market, understand what the likely movement will be, enter a position and be relatively disciplined about closing it should it go against me.
It took me 3 years of hard graft to get good at my self-employed work and I see trading as the same process / length of time, I know that I'll be in a position to say I've cracked it.
To echo what has already been said here - forget about using large amounts of money - just stick to using £2 stakes.
At this stage of the process, you should be looking to not lose money and as I see it, far better to do that using small stakes than big ones.
Keep at it, be disciplined and put the hours in and I promise you - it will start to make sense.
Best of luck
Iambic
I am writing this response after receiving 7 replies to my original post (just over an hour later). Firstly I want to thank everyone who has replied.
I am not getting into financial trouble yet, but that is always is the back of my mind, I am a working class single man and I do not have much spare cash. I started with a bank of £2000 and now have approximately £850 left. I never dreamed that I would be counting my losses in thousands. Horse racing (especially over the jumps) is my favourite sport. I am in my early 50s now and I have been a punter off and on for more than 30 years. Yet I think this is more of a hindrance than a help when it comes to trading. When I first started trading I thought my experience would help. I now believe that most of the movement in the Betfair markets is purely due to trading and has no correlation with the actual chances of a horse winning a race. It is not unusual to see a 10/1 chance going off at 5/1 purely due to trading. Some of my early losses were due to my conviction that a horse’s price at the off would reflect it’s chance of winning the race.
In hindsight I started to quickly (my stakes were too high), with high expectations. I believe that there is a big problem with learning through practise mode or with inconsequential stakes, since my emotional state would be completely different when I switch to real stakes and hence I would need to learn all over again. As for reverting to gambling, this has been a problem for me I have been guilty of letting my losing trades go in-play to try to get my orders filled. I have been working on stopping this and I have been advised to switch on ‘take SP’ close to the off to ensure that I do not carry my bets in-play. I did that today for the first time and I didn’t realise that I would leave an imbalance on by lays-backs, hence I actually carried over a lay bet which had already cost me £50, since the horse was in a winning position, before I realised what had happened. I am working on getting this down to pure trading where I just accept any losses at the off.
I am well aware that I do not have an edge, and as you say, Mark, it is difficult to get information on edges (strategies) that actually work. I have tried some of the strategies in the sample automation files, but I feel that in most cases, a fair bit of research and tweaking is still necessary to make these strategies work. I decided to try to learn manually and then maybe try to put together an automation rule that mimics my trading.
When it comes to an overall plan, Anna, it was to succeed. I never considered absolute failure, and hence I am very reluctant to admit defeat. I think taking a break might be a good idea. I think that I have to separate my losses to date from my future trading. If I am to drop my stakes, even if I have a good run, I will not recover my initial bank, hence I think I have to start again with the money left in my account being my new bank.
Thank you, convoysur-2, for your practical advice. I am working on both my discipline and psychology. I am mostly concentrating on drifting horses, since I have noticed that, in most instances, prices seem to go out much quicker than they come in. I am already reluctant to trade horses at higher prices due to the greater risk.
I have already dropped the Irish racing since the markets are usually too volatile for me to read. I am now considering dropping Sundays, since I always seem to lose on a Sunday where the markets can get a little crazy. I stopped trading after 2 evening races yesterday because there were far too many spoof bets manipulating the markets, to take money from novices (like me). Although I am aware that evening racing markets can be more difficult to read, I am reluctant to drop any more meetings since I have a finite time to learn this. I normally try not to get involved until the last 5 minutes or when over £100,000 has been traded. If I am to get 10.000 hours experience on the markets, at my age, I need to trade in as many markets as possible.
I tried a little bit on the tennis, but I have no real interest in the sport, and I doubt that I could ever find an edge when I know nothing about the players. I have also tried a little on the football and I may return to that at some time in the future. I have never traded the greyhounds as I was led to believe that liquidity is particularly poor on these markets. I might give the greyhounds a try.
I am not getting into financial trouble yet, but that is always is the back of my mind, I am a working class single man and I do not have much spare cash. I started with a bank of £2000 and now have approximately £850 left. I never dreamed that I would be counting my losses in thousands. Horse racing (especially over the jumps) is my favourite sport. I am in my early 50s now and I have been a punter off and on for more than 30 years. Yet I think this is more of a hindrance than a help when it comes to trading. When I first started trading I thought my experience would help. I now believe that most of the movement in the Betfair markets is purely due to trading and has no correlation with the actual chances of a horse winning a race. It is not unusual to see a 10/1 chance going off at 5/1 purely due to trading. Some of my early losses were due to my conviction that a horse’s price at the off would reflect it’s chance of winning the race.
In hindsight I started to quickly (my stakes were too high), with high expectations. I believe that there is a big problem with learning through practise mode or with inconsequential stakes, since my emotional state would be completely different when I switch to real stakes and hence I would need to learn all over again. As for reverting to gambling, this has been a problem for me I have been guilty of letting my losing trades go in-play to try to get my orders filled. I have been working on stopping this and I have been advised to switch on ‘take SP’ close to the off to ensure that I do not carry my bets in-play. I did that today for the first time and I didn’t realise that I would leave an imbalance on by lays-backs, hence I actually carried over a lay bet which had already cost me £50, since the horse was in a winning position, before I realised what had happened. I am working on getting this down to pure trading where I just accept any losses at the off.
I am well aware that I do not have an edge, and as you say, Mark, it is difficult to get information on edges (strategies) that actually work. I have tried some of the strategies in the sample automation files, but I feel that in most cases, a fair bit of research and tweaking is still necessary to make these strategies work. I decided to try to learn manually and then maybe try to put together an automation rule that mimics my trading.
When it comes to an overall plan, Anna, it was to succeed. I never considered absolute failure, and hence I am very reluctant to admit defeat. I think taking a break might be a good idea. I think that I have to separate my losses to date from my future trading. If I am to drop my stakes, even if I have a good run, I will not recover my initial bank, hence I think I have to start again with the money left in my account being my new bank.
Thank you, convoysur-2, for your practical advice. I am working on both my discipline and psychology. I am mostly concentrating on drifting horses, since I have noticed that, in most instances, prices seem to go out much quicker than they come in. I am already reluctant to trade horses at higher prices due to the greater risk.
I have already dropped the Irish racing since the markets are usually too volatile for me to read. I am now considering dropping Sundays, since I always seem to lose on a Sunday where the markets can get a little crazy. I stopped trading after 2 evening races yesterday because there were far too many spoof bets manipulating the markets, to take money from novices (like me). Although I am aware that evening racing markets can be more difficult to read, I am reluctant to drop any more meetings since I have a finite time to learn this. I normally try not to get involved until the last 5 minutes or when over £100,000 has been traded. If I am to get 10.000 hours experience on the markets, at my age, I need to trade in as many markets as possible.
I tried a little bit on the tennis, but I have no real interest in the sport, and I doubt that I could ever find an edge when I know nothing about the players. I have also tried a little on the football and I may return to that at some time in the future. I have never traded the greyhounds as I was led to believe that liquidity is particularly poor on these markets. I might give the greyhounds a try.
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
The first thing you should do, is withdraw £825 from your Betfair account and just work with £25.
This might seem a bit extreme, but based on the fact you've already taken a big hit, it makes sense to reduce the possibility of you losing a large chunk of the remaining balance.
As has been said on here, edges are important and no one is going to hand a winning edge to you on a plate however, I would offer this:
Try and work on the basis of "less is more". By which, I mean, don't try and trade every single race at this stage. Instead, be selective.
For example, you could focus on races where there are only 6 runners and the favourite is under 3.0.
When it comes to 10 minutes out, bring up the graphs and see what the movements have been.
Then, just simply watch the prices and pay close attention to what happens if one horse drifts - does another steam?
By focusing on 6 runner races, you don't have too many horses to try and keep track of and, with a favourite under 3.0, you can expect the possibility of a decent move.
Only get involved after you've watched the prices for a few minutes and pay attention to the trading ranges as well.
At, say, 3 minutes out, take a position but have an exit strategy in place and stick to it - it doesn't matter if you are wrong - that is part of the game.
By selecting the race type I mentioned above, you will give yourself 3 to 5 opportunities per day to learn how the prices move and practice getting in and out of trades.
Finally, remember that every single full time trader at some point, knew nothing. I know from what I've read on here and interactions with full timers that the only way they cracked it, was to start small, get plenty of screentime and remain focused.
Watch all the videos on Peter's Youtube channels - there is some fantastic information in there.
Iambic
This might seem a bit extreme, but based on the fact you've already taken a big hit, it makes sense to reduce the possibility of you losing a large chunk of the remaining balance.
As has been said on here, edges are important and no one is going to hand a winning edge to you on a plate however, I would offer this:
Try and work on the basis of "less is more". By which, I mean, don't try and trade every single race at this stage. Instead, be selective.
For example, you could focus on races where there are only 6 runners and the favourite is under 3.0.
When it comes to 10 minutes out, bring up the graphs and see what the movements have been.
Then, just simply watch the prices and pay close attention to what happens if one horse drifts - does another steam?
By focusing on 6 runner races, you don't have too many horses to try and keep track of and, with a favourite under 3.0, you can expect the possibility of a decent move.
Only get involved after you've watched the prices for a few minutes and pay attention to the trading ranges as well.
At, say, 3 minutes out, take a position but have an exit strategy in place and stick to it - it doesn't matter if you are wrong - that is part of the game.
By selecting the race type I mentioned above, you will give yourself 3 to 5 opportunities per day to learn how the prices move and practice getting in and out of trades.
Finally, remember that every single full time trader at some point, knew nothing. I know from what I've read on here and interactions with full timers that the only way they cracked it, was to start small, get plenty of screentime and remain focused.
Watch all the videos on Peter's Youtube channels - there is some fantastic information in there.
Iambic
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Practise mode is seriously underrated. If your losing is from not having an edge stop using real money. Switch back when you have improved or shown consistency.JPK65 wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2017 3:50 pmAnother £100 gone today; at what point should I just give up on trading? I have been trying to learn pre-off trading now for 5 months. I have read that only 1 in 100-500 traders are actually successful in the long run. At this point it looks highly unlikely that I will be one of them. I am working full time and can only trade on the evening meetings in addition to Saturdays and Sundays. I have read lots of posts on having the correct mindset, but it is very difficult to get your mindset right when you just keep losing. That is, unless you enjoy throwing money away. If I am to continue I need practical help on reading markets to improve my entry and exit points.
If your losing is a result of your mentality, lack of self control.. unable to accept losses etc.. Cut your bank right down. If you cant afford to lose the money dont use it.
An example: Stick £50 in your trading account and teach yourself to worship and respect this balance.
When you can freely manage this every day and walk away from small losses then try and increase.
Why not. Whatever happened to the old adage: 'Hope for the best but expect the worst'?
So why are you trading instead of laying or backing?
But you are an experienced punter/layer - not an experienced trader.
The Betfair odds, at the off, do actually represent, and fairly accurately at that, the chances of a horse winning. However, that's only over a large number of horses.
Now this is interesting. If you know that a horse's actual chances is 10/1 and it goes off at 5/1, why aren't you laying it? Why are you trading it?
They are but only over a large number of horses is this true.
Yes. However, my feeling is that if you know that a 5/1 horse ought to be 10/1, you should stop trading. It's a waste of your talents. You ought to be backing or laying, depending.
Oh, by the way. I'm a layer. I have been laying for a long time. I did consider trading. After your post, and others like yours of late, I have decided to stick with what I'm good at - LAYING.
Thanks for your post.
Good luck - whatever you decide.
Anna
Hi iambic
Thank you for sharing a strategy. I think I will take your advice and withdraw most of my existing balance. I will try trading in the way you described for a while, but if I am ever to get the required market experience I must, at least, watch all the markets that I can get live access to. I hope I don’t get into difficulty with Betfair for data usage when I am not trading. I might try ramping up my stakes again, slowly, if I can get a profit over a period of one or two months.
I have watched all of Peter’s videos and will continue to rerun them, but to be honest; I think that these videos are as much a marketing tool as they are tutorials. If they were truly meant for education he would give as much air time to the pitfalls involved in each strategy, but he seems to be giving the unrealistic impression that, whatever strategy you choose, making money through trading is a simple process. I find myself thinking about the fact that trading on an exchange is peer to peer betting and successful traders need persistent losers or a steady stream of naive novices to sustain their own profit levels.
Thank you for sharing a strategy. I think I will take your advice and withdraw most of my existing balance. I will try trading in the way you described for a while, but if I am ever to get the required market experience I must, at least, watch all the markets that I can get live access to. I hope I don’t get into difficulty with Betfair for data usage when I am not trading. I might try ramping up my stakes again, slowly, if I can get a profit over a period of one or two months.
I have watched all of Peter’s videos and will continue to rerun them, but to be honest; I think that these videos are as much a marketing tool as they are tutorials. If they were truly meant for education he would give as much air time to the pitfalls involved in each strategy, but he seems to be giving the unrealistic impression that, whatever strategy you choose, making money through trading is a simple process. I find myself thinking about the fact that trading on an exchange is peer to peer betting and successful traders need persistent losers or a steady stream of naive novices to sustain their own profit levels.