At What Point Should I Just Give up

[Nero Tulip]

Giving up can be sensible. It isn't failure. I give up on certain ides and strategies very often, you stop doing what isn't working (having given it sufficient time to prove itself) and you keep what does work. I know you are asking how long is sufficient, but it's not that simple if you are a discretionary trader, easier if you are automated. If you make all the decisions, then you need to use some discretion about how you feel you're doing and maintain responsibility. If you don't feel you have an edge - tough for beginner to know what one feels or looks like - then stop once you reach an amount of money you are ok losing.

You should view your job earnings, gambling losses (and wins) and other income or expenditure as similar stuff. You want ideally as smooth an ascending line (if you were to chart your financial wealth) as you can. But smooth lines on this chart are undervalued or taken for granted by nearly everyone. If you tried something (and you should certainly try in life, and do your best in the process) and it is introducing too much variability in your wealth, then cut back on it, or stop... and reestablish the right course.

Should you later go back and try again? sure, as long as you change what you are doing and have logical reasons for the changes.

You were right to trade with real money, paper trading will tell you next to nothing imo. But as others have said, and with the above in mind, if this is part time - use minimum real money stakes.

There's a lot of people here trying to do the same as everyone else. Most people do lose though. To make profits out of markets, you must do something / analyse something in a way very few other people do, otherwise you're fighting a very competitive game for shreds of the same pie everyone else is trying to eat.

[jimibt]

on a different but connected tack. i run automation 100% for any/everything that i do as this takes away any emotional attachment to the trading aspect. however, if you soley rely on your p&l and recorded stats, you can miss some very subtle pointers regards why a given strategy has gone slightly off kilter. I was trialing a fairly new (lay based) one yesterday that was (is) showing some success but then got hit out of the blue with a losing trade. On checking the actual races breakdown, I got a small clue that stats alone would not have revealed:

Limerik 14:25 - 1st Khalessi

15/8f
D E Mullins Led 1st, joined and disputed 4 out, narrowly headed after 3 out, hampered on rail entering straight, ridden in 3rd 2 out, stayed on to challenge last, led run-in and kept on well under pressure

If i hadn't checked the race analysis, i'd have maybe consigned this strategy to the *also rans* folder. On groking this info, I now have a secondary approach to reviewing how the timing of this particular trade type should unfold.

So to tie this into the OP, giving up on a strategy (or trading in general) is imho more a matter of looking in detail at the edge that you have found and mitigating losses by being totally conversant with the nuances of the races that didn't fit with your plan. You either then ignore those using logic in the strategy or deal with them based on converging factors that you must make yourself fully aware off (be that stats, analysis or other acts of randomness).

With the nags, it certainly can be 4 seasons in one day...

[welshboy06]

on a different but connected tack. i run automation 100% for any/everything that i do as this takes away any emotional attachment to the trading aspect. however, if you soley rely on your p&l and recorded stats, you can miss some very subtle pointers regards why a given strategy has gone slightly off kilter. I was trialing a fairly new (lay based) one yesterday that was (is) showing some success but then got hit out of the blue with a losing trade. On checking the actual races breakdown, I got a small clue that stats alone would not have revealed:

Limerik 14:25 - 1st Khalessi

15/8f
D E Mullins Led 1st, joined and disputed 4 out, narrowly headed after 3 out, hampered on rail entering straight, ridden in 3rd 2 out, stayed on to challenge last, led run-in and kept on well under pressure

If i hadn't checked the race analysis, i'd have maybe consigned this strategy to the *also rans* folder. On groking this info, I now have a secondary approach to reviewing how the timing of this particular trade type should unfold.

So to tie this into the OP, giving up on a strategy (or trading in general) is imho more a matter of looking in detail at the edge that you have found and mitigating losses by being totally conversant with the nuances of the races that didn't fit with your plan. You either then ignore those using logic in the strategy or deal with them based on converging factors that you must make yourself fully aware off (be that stats, analysis or other acts of randomness).

With the nags, it certainly can be 4 seasons in one day...

Hi Jimbit,

Not trying to hijack this thread, but based on what you said above (that you solely rely on automation) My end goal is to have an automated system, still relatively new to trading and am doing so manually currently. Should I be focusing my efforts on trying to pick out something I can automate and at least break even, then tinker with it. Or should I continue manually trading until I find something I can automate?

So either start automating and tweaking things to see what works/doesn't work.
Or manually trade until I find a relatively profitable edge, then look to automate that?

[jimibt]

Hi Jimbit,

Not trying to hijack this thread, but based on what you said above (that you solely rely on automation) My end goal is to have an automated system, still relatively new to trading and am doing so manually currently. Should I be focusing my efforts on trying to pick out something I can automate and at least break even, then tinker with it. Or should I continue manually trading until I find something I can automate?

So either start automating and tweaking things to see what works/doesn't work.
Or manually trade until I find a relatively profitable edge, then look to automate that?

i think you make a good point above and to be honest, i'm not sure if i can give advice on it in a generic way. if you're having a degree of success with a manual system you'd really need to break down the thought process into bite sized chunks, i.e.

• does the race need to be a hcap

• does field size matter

• does having an odds on fave favour or discount the race

• does the gap in odds between the front 3 runners have a bearing on things

etc, etc. The above list is fairly typical of the automation setup for quite a few rules that i create. i attach signals to the outcomes of these which guide subsequent process flows. If you really sit down and flow chart it out, you'll probably find that you only have 3-4 main things happening, all of which depend on self contained constraints within the logic block.

For my part, i had a few pops at manually trading a year or so ago and found that i wasn't disciplined (or fast) enough to exit safely and/or profitably from my trades with any consistency. I think your best plan is definitely to map out your manual process, even if you never end up automating it as it'll give you an overview of what your thought process actually is.

[trader44]

I have been full-time for 9 years, and I NEVER trade horse races with less than 30mins before the off, NEVER
letiss is that saying you stop 30 mins before the off or thats when you start, thanks in advance

[Bluesky]

If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.

I think there is a fairly simple reason why a lot of new traders tend to start with the horses instead of say football or tennis, there is so much more information available regarding pre off horse racing than there is anything else. Most of the courses, books, dvds and youtube videos are concerned with horse racing. I know there are some vids on youtube showing other sports being traded but nothing like the number showing horse race trading.

I have read posts on this forum going back quite a long time about people saying that there is very little learning material available for say football trading, and things don't seem to have improved much. I think if someone such as Letiss was looking for a second income stream then there is a massive gap in the market just waiting to be filled by someone who has made a good living, trading the football markets for nearly 10 years.

Having said that, if Letiss or anyone else is doing something that can be easily replicated (unlike pre off horse racing) then he would be stupid to start teaching as that would soon destroy his edge.

[Dallas]

If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.

I think there is a fairly simple reason why a lot of new traders tend to start with the horses instead of say football or tennis, there is so much more information available regarding pre off horse racing than there is anything else. Most of the courses, books, dvds and youtube videos are concerned with horse racing. I know there are some vids on youtube showing other sports being traded but nothing like the number showing horse race trading.

Did you read the paragraph i wrote above the one you quoted?

[Bluesky]

Did you read the paragraph i wrote above the one you quoted?

Sorry, you did cover some of what I just wrote, I tend to speed read when I'm reading forum posts and do quite often miss things out.

[welshboy06]

If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.

I think there is a fairly simple reason why a lot of new traders tend to start with the horses instead of say football or tennis, there is so much more information available regarding pre off horse racing than there is anything else. Most of the courses, books, dvds and youtube videos are concerned with horse racing. I know there are some vids on youtube showing other sports being traded but nothing like the number showing horse race trading.

I have read posts on this forum going back quite a long time about people saying that there is very little learning material available for say football trading, and things don't seem to have improved much. I think if someone such as Letiss was looking for a second income stream then there is a massive gap in the market just waiting to be filled by someone who has made a good living, trading the football markets for nearly 10 years.

Having said that, if Letiss or anyone else is doing something that can be easily replicated (unlike pre off horse racing) then he would be stupid to start teaching as that would soon destroy his edge.

When people mention trading the football or tennis. I assume they mean in-play? As a newbie I picked pre-off horses because I don't know too much about them, and I thought it would take away the element of having a gamble on a horse. Since I'd be using the information obtained purely from the numbers.

Is trading the football not the same as having a gamble on it at a normal bookie? Football and rugby are areas of knowledge for me, but I've never been able to turn that in to consistent profits, just the odd punt here and there. Although I know a fair bit about football, but don't have masses of stats to use to draw up a strategy that can be used to profit long term. And I think it's for this reason I chose to start with horses.

[Dallas]

If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.

I think there is a fairly simple reason why a lot of new traders tend to start with the horses instead of say football or tennis, there is so much more information available regarding pre off horse racing than there is anything else. Most of the courses, books, dvds and youtube videos are concerned with horse racing. I know there are some vids on youtube showing other sports being traded but nothing like the number showing horse race trading.

I have read posts on this forum going back quite a long time about people saying that there is very little learning material available for say football trading, and things don't seem to have improved much. I think if someone such as Letiss was looking for a second income stream then there is a massive gap in the market just waiting to be filled by someone who has made a good living, trading the football markets for nearly 10 years.

Having said that, if Letiss or anyone else is doing something that can be easily replicated (unlike pre off horse racing) then he would be stupid to start teaching as that would soon destroy his edge.

When people mention trading the football or tennis. I assume they mean in-play? As a newbie I picked pre-off horses because I don't know too much about them, and I thought it would take away the element of having a gamble on a horse. Since I'd be using the information obtained purely from the numbers.

Is trading the football not the same as having a gamble on it at a normal bookie? Football and rugby are areas of knowledge for me, but I've never been able to turn that in to consistent profits, just the odd punt here and there. Although I know a fair bit about football, but don't have masses of stats to use to draw up a strategy that can be used to profit long term. And I think it's for this reason I chose to start with horses.

Tennis is definitely an in-play only sport but football can be done on either, Peters just done a video on his best football trade of the season which was on the pre play market of the Man Utd V Palace match (though most strategies are for in-play).

[max_usted]

If i was coming into trading now while holding down a full time job I'd certainly be starting with Tennis or Football or even the greyhounds.
Football especially can be traded in the weekday evenings the majority of the year more and there's a also plenty of Tennis available to trade in the evening and unlike horse racing the quality is there most of the year where as racing has only May-Sept of worth while evening markets.

I think there is a fairly simple reason why a lot of new traders tend to start with the horses instead of say football or tennis, there is so much more information available regarding pre off horse racing than there is anything else. Most of the courses, books, dvds and youtube videos are concerned with horse racing. I know there are some vids on youtube showing other sports being traded but nothing like the number showing horse race trading.

I have read posts on this forum going back quite a long time about people saying that there is very little learning material available for say football trading, and things don't seem to have improved much. I think if someone such as Letiss was looking for a second income stream then there is a massive gap in the market just waiting to be filled by someone who has made a good living, trading the football markets for nearly 10 years.

Having said that, if Letiss or anyone else is doing something that can be easily replicated (unlike pre off horse racing) then he would be stupid to start teaching as that would soon destroy his edge.

When people mention trading the football or tennis. I assume they mean in-play? As a newbie I picked pre-off horses because I don't know too much about them, and I thought it would take away the element of having a gamble on a horse. Since I'd be using the information obtained purely from the numbers.

Is trading the football not the same as having a gamble on it at a normal bookie? Football and rugby are areas of knowledge for me, but I've never been able to turn that in to consistent profits, just the odd punt here and there. Although I know a fair bit about football, but don't have masses of stats to use to draw up a strategy that can be used to profit long term. And I think it's for this reason I chose to start with horses.

I'm quite new to this - but it seems to me that in all of the markets you are taking positions based on your analysis of the likelihood of events occurring. So it's all somewhat related to gambling, no matter which kind of information you use as your source for that prediction of future of events.

As you say, in pre-off horse-racing, your using numerical information (which will take you a while to understand, interpret, get an idea of what's going on), whereas with football you're already familiar with the information you should be interpreting (the game itself, teams' behaviour, etc). So I'd say that you'd get a bit of a head start if you picked the sport you're most familiar with.

I think this would have really helped me because then I'd have more easily understand the concept of value in betting (which is what, as a newbie, it took me ages to grasp properly). That is that you should form an opinion of what will occur based on your source(s) of information (the nature of the specific game itself at a particular point in time, teams' history and so on, or in pre-off markets the numerical data presented to you via the ladder and graphs), and then look across the different markets to see if there are odds on offer which give you good value/least risk should you wish to place a trade based on your opinion of what will occur .

My beginners' approach might have resembled yours a little, in that I thought I could pick a single strategy and then apply this very judiciously with the support of detailed statistical data. But I don't think this is suitable really, as the human mind works by rationalising information to support its current emotional state. What this means in practice is that you start interpreting random events in your source of information as a signal that justifies what you want to do - which is trade using your single strategy.

So essentially what you might end up doing is repeatedly applying the same strategy in an inappropriate manner, with your mind totally closed to where the real value in the market is given the events that are 'unfurling' before you.

As I say, I'm just 9 months in so no expert at all but a few (relatively) newbie thoughts for you in case of helpful.

[Thebest147]

Practice mode is a false reading on the market.imho
You could spend weeks months even researching a system to no avail.take in running and you had a back to lay system you could in practice mode have £100 at 20 and get matched and green up all good.but in real time there might not be more then £ 11 available at them odds so all you have is unmatched bets all over the show.ao I would be careful when going down the practice mode root. Ps is there a way to check data from every odds on fave that drifts it can only drift so far before it is a value bet or bookies are not willing to let it go off to high.only a thought but if you backed drifter at the sp and layed them back were there was a grand matched at the bottom of it range would that be value

[prestburydreams]

Always a tone of smugness on here along with good advice if u could make a living by flicking a switch on a computer I would think you would be feeling smug to you can't blame them its an area in life where they can look you in the eye and say computer says no

The community is for people to gloat and show boat their success whilst also offer a little sound advice

I don't believe there is any further you need to look then this if your average winning trade is 3 quid you can't keep taking 10 pound losses and go in running and blowing banks

The biggest edge a pro trader has is his mindset the best of them make losing trades they have just learned not to throw the kitchen sink at it in running and the next race in my opinion if you can't learn to lose you will never ever win long term and feel the full force of the smugness mindset

This is not a poke a the pro traders as success breeds confidence and confidence breeds arrogance which is normal when you have put the hard work in and learned to walk the walk you can definitely talk the talk good luck fella

[prestburydreams]

I'm not a fan of practice mode either it does not trade like the real time markets in my opinion I have used it a few times and definitely found the stakes get matched fully most of the time and i was making money where as in real time I found the markets much more volatile and losing money the only positive I found with practice mode was if u keep randomly clicking the wrong side of the market a newbie with a 2 k bank can see how u can get into real quick and real big losses if u keep laying and expecting the market to turn and it keeps coming through you

I wouldn't think you get future property moguls seriously basing the strategy on a few games of monopoly though

[to75ne]

just out of curiosity why have you resurrected a thread that as been dormant (effectively dead) for the think end of 2 1/2 years, what is the reason?