At What Point Should I Just Give up

[goat68]

It isnt the entry point thats important
Nobody really knows which way a market will go
Its how you trade that counts
If it goes your way ride it til it levels out then get out with a profit
If it goes against you scratch the trade or get out fast with a minimal loss
If you get more right than wrong you are in profit

You know "edges" run out, maybe this big "ride your winners" hype since everyone is trying to do it, means it doesn't happen...

[Realrocknrolla]

You will never know how far you could have gone if you quit!

[Realrocknrolla]

DDFEFB94-1D69-4731-81EA-649233802A3F.jpeg

[iggypop37]

I come from a matched betting/arbing background for many years, I also have some knowledge of how and why the money goes down, not on betfair, but in retail settings shall we say, learning to trade the gee gees however purely on betfair is all very different.

I think if I was to start trading again, I'd deffo look at soccer first.

But - you only need one edge to set you on your way .....

[eightbo]

don't give up; journal + pivot

[stueytrader]

don't give up; journal + pivot

Is that pivot as in pivot tables (stats) or pivot as in be flexible and shift your approach...?

Either would make sense to me!

[BigT2019]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

[goat68]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

i'm only 8months into this journey, and i've been ALL of the above...! My theory is I developed a high hit rate at the start because I was letting my losers run, which paid off quite a bit giving the high hit rate, but then I got that really awful loser, and yes a few times I got angry and let it go inplay, and I was lucky a few times with some big lucky wins! but then lost it on some other big losses. In the long run I was -EV.
- Don't go inplay it's not part of your plan and you're just gambling like I did
- Learn to love your losses as part of your strategy, i'm still not there, but getting closer with Automation. My bot had an awful week last week through a string of misstakes, but i've already got over it and onto a new bot.

All in all i'm still not near being profitable, but i've ticked a number of the boxes to hopefully get there...

Goat's advice (for what it is worth!):
- Don't go inplay
- Don't focus too much on your strike rate

[Trader724]

Try to reduce the stakes until you feel comfortable with any loss and understand that individual results are not so important and you shouldn't risk more just to avoid a loss, this mentality is specific to those who have gambling problems and trading is different, losses simply cannot be avoided, you have to get used to them. If you want to be successful in trading you have to be disciplined, I think that's the first condition.

[Realrocknrolla]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

Use the automation rule that greens up everything for you and stops you going inplay.

Think this is it.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=11361

[Tetras]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

What helped me was just accepting that it has happened. It was always something unusual, like getting caught in a gamble. So, my philosophy now is that the mistake was made, it's a losing market, that's it, the money has gone. It helped to be recording, because then I could tell myself I'd look back over it. Avoiding the kind of trades that led to unexpected events helps too, like being overexposed on the dodgy races at the end of a card.

[rik]

if you enjoy it and dont mind staking low, no reason to give up

[BigT2019]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

i'm only 8months into this journey, and i've been ALL of the above...! My theory is I developed a high hit rate at the start because I was letting my losers run, which paid off quite a bit giving the high hit rate, but then I got that really awful loser, and yes a few times I got angry and let it go inplay, and I was lucky a few times with some big lucky wins! but then lost it on some other big losses. In the long run I was -EV.
- Don't go inplay it's not part of your plan and you're just gambling like I did
- Learn to love your losses as part of your strategy, i'm still not there, but getting closer with Automation. My bot had an awful week last week through a string of misstakes, but i've already got over it and onto a new bot.

All in all i'm still not near being profitable, but i've ticked a number of the boxes to hopefully get there...

Goat's advice (for what it is worth!):
- Don't go inplay
- Don't focus too much on your strike rate

It's nice to know I am not alone! thank you for sharing your experience, I really appreciate it. I hope your bot works out for you in the long run!

[LeTiss]

Trading is a peculiar business. I have personally known people fall by the wayside, who I considered to be intellects.....having a brain in your head doesn't mean you'll automatically be a successful trader.
Also, you can spend hours studying form and analysing graphs, but sometimes you just get overwhelmed by information and start second guessing yourself.
Frustration, disappointment, even anger, sometimes boredom - all lead to bad decisions. Invariably, the same bad decsions you were making last week

What you need in trading is big bollocks, confidence without allowing yourself to become arrogant, ambition tinged with a sense of realism......all held together by a serious layer of discipline

Without discipline.....you are toast in this game

[BigT2019]

I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.

Use the automation rule that greens up everything for you and stops you going inplay.

Think this is it.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=11361

Thanks I have just downloaded it. I wish I had known about this sooner rather than later..definitely could have saved a few quid!