Lay the field - any stats available to assist?

The sport of kings.
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deggsy10
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Hi all. I have been having a look at the lay the field strategy which looks quite interesting. What would be useful to know is how many times 2 or more horses get matched during the race below odds of 2 and at which types of races did it occur etc. Does a anybody know of any resource where stats on this is available?
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Derek27
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If you're thinking of using that strategy, it might me worth checking the Timeform website, I know they used to have information/tables on the average IR trade prices on a course-by-course basis.

Certain courses for a variety of reasons, such as an uphill finish or long run from the last, have a much higher percentage of changing places in the closing stages, resulting in a lot of short priced IR losers.
deggsy10
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Thanks for posting that although I am struggling with interpreting it. The way it is listed, the different races dont seem to be bunched together. For example on the 4th link the 15th October stats, in rows 6 and 7 there is the Cork 17.00 2m3f handicap hard showing the runners Rory Omore and Birdies Boy but the rest of the runners for that race are scattered around various different rows. Is there any way of sorting the columns so it keeps all the races together?
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northbound
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There should be a field called EVENT_ID, try sorting data by that field.
jjrrjj
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As said above ,depending on your version of excel as i think the layout is slightly different from version to version.

On mine it is : Data tab at the top -> Sort -> Sort by (EVENT_ID)
deggsy10
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jjrrjj wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:07 am
As said above ,depending on your version of excel as i think the layout is slightly different from version to version.

On mine it is : Data tab at the top -> Sort -> Sort by (EVENT_ID)
Thanks. Im using a mac. I think Ive figured out how to sort it. Finally, is it the IPMIN column that details the lowest odds each horse was matched at?
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northbound
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Yes, IPMIN tells you the lowest odds that horse was matched inplay.
deggsy10
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northbound wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:52 pm
Yes, IPMIN tells you the lowest odds that horse was matched inplay.
Strange that in some of the races, the lowest odds any of the horses got matched at is over 1.01. There was one I saw were the lowest odds for any of the horses in that race was 1.74. Surely the winner would be 1.01 every time? Odd. Anyway, from having a scan over some of those stats, the impression Im getting is that there doesn't seem to be any particular pattern for horses more likely to be matched under 2 in terms of race type. From the research I've done, the suggestion seems to be that the short sprints are more likely to get higher numbers of horses matched at low odds. But from what I can see there is just as much chance of this happening in the 2 mile races. Confused.
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Dallas
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Its actually the opposite, the longer distance races have a far higher percentage of losing runners trading below 2.0, than the 5f, 6f & 7f sprints
deggsy10
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Dallas wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:29 pm
Its actually the opposite, the longer distance races have a far higher percentage of losing runners trading below 2.0, than the 5f, 6f & 7f sprints
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?
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northbound
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deggsy10 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:44 pm
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?
Personally, I haven’t found anything worthwile YET by digging into that horse racing data for Lay The Field strategies.
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Dallas
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deggsy10 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:44 pm
Dallas wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:29 pm
Its actually the opposite, the longer distance races have a far higher percentage of losing runners trading below 2.0, than the 5f, 6f & 7f sprints
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?
Like most strategies as a blanket approach it wont be, but if you dig the data you will find the courses (couple of Irish courses are very good for it), distances & race types its most suited to, also the optimal odds to lay can differ
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ANGELS15
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Apologies if this post is repeated. I swore I replied to this thread this morning and submitted but the post doesn't seem to have gone through. Anyway...

I have experimented a little with this strategy possibly around 100 races and I must say IMVHO it is a very risky strategy for a number of reasons. Fortunately I've only experimented with small stakes. I've tended to focus mostly on races up to 7f with a minimum of 10 runners. My experiences and observations are:

1) It is staggerging how often even in a big competitive field (6/1 the field) you are often only matched on one horse at odds on say 1.5. Even trying to lay the field at 2/1 you may only get 2 matched resulting in a small loss, on rare occasions get 3 matched just breaking even.

2) I've observed quite a few races where there have been several horses across the track 2 or 3 furlongs out battling away looked at my betfair screen expecting to see a green up only to see that one horse is already odds on and goes on to win by a a few lengths.

3) I've had the odd race where there was a tight photo finish yet only one of the two runners in the photo traded odds on (the winner). I even had one race where there was a close finish between the favourite and a longshot even though the distance was a nose the longshot won in the photo but only the favourite traded odds on!

4)What I believe is happening is that there are many professionals operating on course and they are in an excellent position to see what is happening with no picture delay like you have off course. They are probably only betting in the last 50 yards of a race where by then you have a clear winner.
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northbound
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Indeed.

My advice, if you are into Lay The Field strategies, is to focus on other sports. Golf for example.

You can download historical data for sports from data.betfair.com, although it’s a bit more complex to import and analyse.
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