Thanks for your two-penneth Morbius. For someone who doesn't know me at all you write as if you have known me all my life! So let me correct you on a few things. I wasn't beating myself up at all, I was telling it as I see it and I don't see it. I wasn't criticising me or anyone I was simply saying I don't see these patterns others claim to see and that's a fact.Morbius wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:15 pmHi firlandsfarm.....I think you are beating yourself up too much about this if you don't mind me saying so. Being spoon fed someone's style and system isn't the way to go if all you do is copy it verbatim. If you can't figure Pete's style or anyone else's for that matter then devise your own but learn what sound trading principles and philosophy are first. All successful traders are "effectively inventing their own version of the wheel"...if you don't do that then you are replicating and that is not a recipe for success, or not long term success anyway. Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs for example highly value innovative thinking even if the trader isn't successful yet and has only ever lost money. Graduates with resumes with 2:1s and Masters often go straight into the bin in favour of someone with actual trading experience on many professional trading desks.
I will repeat Warren Buffet's famous quote, its harsh but very true......"first come the innovators, then come the imitators and finally come the idiots". Traders need to take a 30,000ft view of this and stand further away and see it as a bigger issue. I would much rather finance a trader who was learning and losing and trying to devise their own system and had failed with 20 bespoke systems of their own than one who straight from the get go was using someone else's well trodden path. The former has a larger potential capacity when done right. It would have a similar effect to too many people being in the same line of business in the same city.....the slice of the pie just gets smaller and smaller until there is no pie left. We all need a leg up sometimes, a bit like reaching for the dictionary when you can't be arsed to wrack your brain anymore to get the final answer in the crossword puzzle but reaching for the dictionary all the time isn't a good thing is it??
IMHO, my guess is that you aren't taking the proper lessons from your own experience because that has more value than perhaps you realise, it is after all a form of intellectual property. And numbers never change on a betting exchange at random, it just appears so. If a person couldn't read, the words and letters in a book would seem random but what you perceive to be "random" is in fact volatility that you are not translating correctly. As Pete said a while back, the market will trick you into doing certain things and you need to step back from that world.
Just my two penneth
I agree with your "don't try and copy" comment but I'm not trying nor wanting to copy anyone. There is a difference between learning and doing. You stand a better chance of being successful when 'doing' if you first take the trouble to learn. And part of the learning process is to understand what others find successful. So before 'doing' I tried to understand what others were doing and frankly I can't see it and no amount of insistence that I can see it will change that. To understand does not mean to copy.
I never said the numbers on the exchange move at random, I said they appear to move at random. If someone cannot see a pattern in movement then the alternative is that the movement appears random.
I was in the investment game all my life and am fully aware of GS and others and what they do but thank you for suggesting WB would call me an idiot!
I think you are making too much of this, it's a simple fact ... I cannot see any pattern in the way the numbers move. I'm happy with that and I'm happy with what I do and the returns I make. I prefer to let my automation rules do the work so I can enjoy my retirement life as I have for over 20 years.
Just accept that people have different skills. By insisting that others can trade if they look again you could be making yourself responsible for lots of people losing lots of money. There are enough that come and go from this forum with lighter pockets, I don't think we should create more. By all means we should offer help and support but we should not be saying 'anyone can do it'!
Just my t
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Just my two penn'orth