Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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Korattt
Posts: 1963
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

good stuff Goaty, great consistency
Trader724
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading as long as you limit what you do to a time-frame in which you try to position yourself in font of somebody else.
 
 I find it naive to believe that the real chances of a selection are influenced by how the orders flow.  Yes, the wisdom of the crowd often leads close to the right price, but this is not always the case.

 To make money with a betting strategy you need value, but in trading you just have to be among the first to do the same thing as others taking advantage of volatility.   I trade a lot and I don't care about value I just surf. 🏄
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 6460
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
LinusP
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.
Trader724
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.
Trader724
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

LinusP wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:03 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.
Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?
Trader724
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm



You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices most often one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.
Last edited by Trader724 on Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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alexmr2
Posts: 337
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:53 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.
So basically traders need value positions of the next short-term move (not neccesarily to know the true odds of the runner), value bettors/professional punters need the true odds?

E.g a horse is drifting and there is more chance that it will continue for another impulse based on reading the market even if it has just gone past the true odds
HorseDark
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun May 06, 2018 2:45 pm
Location: UK

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:56 pm
Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?
If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.
Trader724
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

HorseDark wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:13 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:56 pm
Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?
If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.
Exactly
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