Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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goat68
Posts: 1045
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Getting worse 14% wins now
So obviously this is not working, it does imply, and agrees with what someone told me, that all the price movements are random. So having a +3/-3 profit/loss, will be -ev, in fact anything will be -ev with commission.
It comes back to value, and I can't see how you can judge value other than via fundamentals (form, pace, runners, course,..), and someone told me on Slack that fundamentals is very advanced to be successful at. But how can you gain any value edge any other way? price movements are random, so you will never make any money... :(
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

mmm, it's lost 8 of 9 trades now, make me think I should just switch it around, lay instead of back, back instead of lay...but the 1 tick spread is a significant hurdle there.
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

someone said to me, think about why that favourite drifts 30seconds before the off? My answer is: random movement based on market participants, so it could equally have steamed in the last 30 seconds, or fundamental reason like playing up in the stall, bad commentator comment,... so none of these are automatable, at least not easily, I guess if you could find a live broadcast feed with a "captioning" API you could grep for commentator comments...?
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

All price movement is random? Not sure about that, sounds like a load of bollox to me. Maybe run some Pearson Correlation to check for yourself... I certainly don't see all price movement as random but that doesn't mean you should take mine or someone else's word for it.
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Support and resistance isn't random, psychological points within the market aren't random, behaviour around such areas are more predictable than random & why does the price drift in the last 30 seconds? Well what's the context of the previous price action before the last 30 seconds? Was it a steamer, so people are closing out/greening up on the opposite side of the book. Is the horse playing up at the start? What a stupid question they asked, could be a few reasons, either way the price is moving and you can exploit it.
Trader Pat
Posts: 1998
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:53 pm
Getting worse 14% wins now
So obviously this is not working, it does imply, and agrees with what someone told me, that all the price movements are random. So having a +3/-3 profit/loss, will be -ev, in fact anything will be -ev with commission.
It comes back to value, and I can't see how you can judge value other than via fundamentals (form, pace, runners, course,..), and someone told me on Slack that fundamentals is very advanced to be successful at. But how can you gain any value edge any other way? price movements are random, so you will never make any money... :(

This thread reminds me of Groundhog Day

You seem intent on making the same mistake over and over again. You've been told many times that 3 tick stop losses just don't work and will stop you out before your position can move into profit. You've also been advised to stop jumping from one strategy to another but there seems to be a new one every few days.

To be honest I wouldn't even bother responding to your posts as I find them generally very negative and self defeating but I make an exception for this one just because of how you signed off

goat68 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:53 pm
price movements are random, so you will never make any money... :(
I take umbrage with this and I find it insulting to me personally and anybody who sits in front of a screen all day trading sports. What the hell do you think we're all doing, throwing darts and hoping one of them sticks? Price movements are not all random, a move on one horse leads to a move on another and if you bothered to take the advice you were given early on and just watch the markets you would see that.

I see two big problems with your approach, that you keep using narrow stop losses tells me that you're extremely risk averse which is a big problem in itself and the fact you're taking advice from somebody on slack who probably thinks a ladder is something you use when washing your windows speaks volumes. There is tons and tons of advice on this forum alone if only you were open to listening and also tons of videos and other resources to tap into.

I said very early on this thread that you seemed to be somebody who was looking for a shortcut and that's fine, that's how I started out but I realised very quickly that there was a lot of work involved and hundreds of hours watching markets required to get any kind of handle on what was going on. If you're not willing to do that you should probably stop wasting your time.

Good luck
HorseDark
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun May 06, 2018 2:45 pm
Location: UK

goat68 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:53 pm

price movements are random, so you will never make any money... :(
The underlying patterns in a market are formed by the accumulated habits of those involved. Nothing random about that!

Noise is something else...

A short stop will fail to "tune out" the noise.
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goat68
Posts: 1045
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So it was losing at such a bad rate 11 losses out of 13, i've just swapped it round to see if it does any better...
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ShaunWhite
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The confusion and crossed wires are simply around the definition of value. Value isn't just vs sp or the likelihood of winning. Value is obtaining a price better than the current fair market price at any time. And with no partucular time or price showing a bias vs sp (if only) then that fair market price at any time is analogous to bsp, and therefore the value is maintained regardless of the bsp 'value' in that specific market.

There's also a lot of crossed wires about this being about individual markets vs the general case. What you need to imagine is how a market would behave if it were to encapsulated every market simultaneously.

There's another way i approach things like this, when someone as successful as Liam (probably the most profitable regular forum visitor by some way) tells me something and I don't agree with it, I'm wrong and he's right, and it's my job to work out why he's right. And if he says something that appears insignificant, I've missed the point and I need to work on understanding why it's been said. It would be utterly ridiculous to think I knew better. I had a drink with Liam in Jan 2020, I used two ears and one mouth and then went away to think about it. Since then my return has tripled and it's been that way now for 13 straight months.
Trader724
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