Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Do you have to use a java program to draw the graphs or is there a way of doing it through excel for idiots like me?!

If you know how to plot graphs in Excel you're good to go. Import the CSV file in Excel and play with it.

Yeah, if you've adapt with Excel you can do that, I just like to be more bespoke with my graphs and i'm an old school Java person...!

[ShaunWhite]

You might want to scale that volume in relation to the price of the horse, an odds-on horse will take many times what a 6.0 horse will simply because punters have to bet bigger to get the same return or liability. As you know you need a grand down at 1.5 to win 500 but only £100 at 6.0 to win the same. And/or you could look at vol as a %age of the overall market vol.

The best thing to do though is just watch 00s of markets, most people clock up 000s before they start to see through the noise.

viewtopic.php?p=139203

This is key Goat!

Thanks, yes just realized this... i'll update my charting this evening, cheers

Scaling the volume was just one suggestion, not a necessarility solution and really just designed to make you consider the many many metrics you can use.

The message everyone is giving you (and those who've agreed with me have only done so because I happened to say it first) is to slow down, get those hours of screen time under your belt and just keep learning & understanding for now. It's hard but it's not impossible if you apply a bit of discipline.

And re losing: get used to it because everyone had losing days (even the big guys do if you saw the pl curves they posted on Slack) and you're a smart guy so think about it this way, isn't drawing a line across your results where the sun rises and sets a fairly arbitary place to do it? A rolling week or rolling 100 markets might tell you more about whether or not you're improving and it will also show you that individual bad races or even entire bad days don't really bend the line much when viewed as part of the 00s you'll do.

[goat68]

Thanks Shaun,
yeah slower.....
I'm going to setup an "Advanced chart" with my Guardian metrics so I can watch live markets with the same data...
Cheers

[The Silk Run]

The message everyone is giving you (and those who've agreed with me have only done so because I happened to say it first) is to slow down,
Yup. It's not a race to the bottom

[ShaunWhite]

price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

I take umbrage with this

He got the wrong end of the stick.
I'll hold my hand up and say I told him that. But I meant that across ALL of them there's randomness (bet blind any place any time and you breakeven with no bias) but you absolutely can see patterns in individual markets otherwise nobody would ever make any money. A little knowedge is a dangerous thing and I forget that we all might talk about something that needs context a newer guy doesn't have.

And I 100% do NOT advocate that new guys should let positions run. That's absolute madness unless you know what you're doing. Hedge at the start and move on it's fine and what we all do. Besides any mathsy edge there might be relies on being profitable before the off and that's never going to happen if you start throwing big amounts around with massive varience.

btw Pat, I don't want to go back to that value stuff again but if you look at the PL for just your hedging bets it can help you to see if you're giving much money away.

[jamesg46]

Thanks Shaun,
yeah slower.....
I'm going to setup an "Advanced chart" with my Guardian metrics so I can watch live markets with the same data...
Cheers

Advanced charts really are worth the time... look at the price action on this over 2.6, it's really clean with multi time chart alignment... then the pullback and break of 2.94 is nice too.

[Trader Pat]

price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

I take umbrage with this

He got the wrong end of the stick.
I'll hold my hand up and say I told him that. But I meant that across ALL of them there's randomness (bet blind any place any time and you breakeven with no bias) but you absolutely can see patterns in individual markets otherwise nobody would ever make any money. A little knowedge is a dangerous thing and I forget that we all might talk about something that needs context a newer guy doesn't have.

No harm done Shaun I didn't take it THAT personally even though I probably made it sound like I did. I suppose the main point I was trying to get across is that he needs to be looking at the markets in real time as much as he can as well as data. If he can do both together then happy days!

btw Pat, I don't want to go back to that value stuff again but if you look at the PL for just your hedging bets it can help you to see if you're giving much money away.

I'd definitely go along with that. I tried to stay out of that whole value debate because I found it too confusing to be honest!

[goat68]

I take umbrage with this

He got the wrong end of the stick.
I'll hold my hand up and say I told him that. But I meant that across ALL of them there's randomness (bet blind any place any time and you breakeven with no bias) but you absolutely can see patterns in individual markets otherwise nobody would ever make any money. A little knowedge is a dangerous thing and I forget that we all might talk about something that needs context a newer guy doesn't have.

No harm done Shaun I didn't take it THAT personally even though I probably made it sound like I did. I suppose the main point I was trying to get across is that he needs to be looking at the markets in real time as much as he can as well as data. If he can do both together then happy days!

btw Pat, I don't want to go back to that value stuff again but if you look at the PL for just your hedging bets it can help you to see if you're giving much money away.

I'd definitely go along with that. I tried to stay out of that whole value debate because I found it too confusing to be honest!

yeah, I got the wrong end of the stick, both for the "random" advice, and the "value" advice, sorry guys, but I paid for it dearly!!
I'm back to the slower "mindset" again, as I said i'm setting up Advanced charts with the same data analytics, and i'll look at a few live markets when I can, probably evening or weekend races

[Trader Pat]

yeah, I got the wrong end of the stick, both for the "random" advice, and the "value" advice, sorry guys, but I paid for it dearly!!
I'm back to the slower "mindset" again, as I said i'm setting up Advanced charts with the same data analytics, and i'll look at a few live markets when I can, probably evening or weekend races

Like I said no harm done.

You're obviously willing to put the work in so as always good luck with it

[goat68]

yeah, I got the wrong end of the stick, both for the "random" advice, and the "value" advice, sorry guys, but I paid for it dearly!!
I'm back to the slower "mindset" again, as I said i'm setting up Advanced charts with the same data analytics, and i'll look at a few live markets when I can, probably evening or weekend races

Like I said no harm done.

You're obviously willing to put the work in so as always good luck with it

Reminds me again of Peter's interview remark, when he says something like: "sometimes you need a really big loss to make you think..." -£82 is not big I suppose, but it's made me think!

[Trader Pat]

yeah, I got the wrong end of the stick, both for the "random" advice, and the "value" advice, sorry guys, but I paid for it dearly!!
I'm back to the slower "mindset" again, as I said i'm setting up Advanced charts with the same data analytics, and i'll look at a few live markets when I can, probably evening or weekend races

Like I said no harm done.

You're obviously willing to put the work in so as always good luck with it

Reminds me again of Peter's interview remark, when he says something like: "sometimes you need a really big loss to make you think..." -£82 is not big I suppose, but it's made me think!

It's all relative so if its a bigger loss than normal its going to get your attention and those are the ones that definitely make you think

[Trader724]

I don't understand why you choose this approach. You remember the analogy with the sports car some time ago, I was obviously referring to your knowledge in programming. It's no secret that in order to increase your chances of success you have to measure the markets from all angles and how could you do this better than with a special software that you can develop yourself.

You could use old prices to test dozens of bots in a day the equivalent of months or years in live markets. Be smart be fast the world is not standing still you are in a competition so you have to use every possible advantage to progress.

I am currently learning python because it is suitable for ML. My future plan is to make my own trading software to exploit any inefficiency in the markets because others have already done it and now they are doing great while I'm picking scraps.

[goat68]

I don't understand why you choose this approach. You remember the analogy with the sports car some time ago, I was obviously referring to your knowledge in programming. It's no secret that in order to increase your chances of success you have to measure the markets from all angles and how could you do this better than with a special software that you can develop yourself.

You could use old prices to test dozens of bots in a day the equivalent of months or years in live markets. Be smart be fast the world is not standing still you are in a competition so you have to use every possible advantage to progress.

I am currently learning python because it is suitable for ML. My future plan is to make my own trading software to exploit any inefficiency in the markets because others have already done it and now they are doing great while I'm picking scraps.

that is what I am doing... I have only been running my data collector rules for 2 weeks though, so not a lot of data, the charts I posted last night are graphed from that data...
This week I simply got excited I understood "value", WRONG!!

[Trader724]

Seeing how much you lost yesterday, I think it's better just to collect data, don't lose money anymore because trading with such small stakes doesn't make a big difference from training mode anyway, and you may upset someone if you use stakes that violate the terms and conditions.

[speedyhamster]

trader puts £50 total on a series of trades that statistically should net a profit, but his day goes like this win win lose win lose lose lose, he loses £25, he ends up getting frustrated that he has lost £25, starts blaming the markets, changes his trading plan etc.

the same trader goes to the bar puts £50 in the slot machine comes away with £25 (loses £25) and comes away having enjoyed the slots with no worries about losing the £25

what is the difference?

You know a slot machine is random so you don't expect a payout every time, having this mindset and following your trading plan execution flawlessly (making money on it is a secondary bonus not your goal) can get rid of trading fears, helping you look at it in longer term not each individual trade.